Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 10/2/2017 18:16

Good day ian

I consulted froggie about my short, he confirmed it a good trade which should keep me clear of hot water.

Re Mr Drew

He got in too deep and like others since failed to take a loss and live to fight another day. A more recent example of similar behaviour was LTCM.

[ianwwwhite] 10/2/2017 17:26

A bit of a dabba-doo day for AHT, +21 1644p, perhaps Ashtead Fridays are back?

Looks like you are almost in profit with your short bracke, and I wish you well. However I leave you with this thought:

'Anyone who plays the stock market not as an insider is like a man buying cows in the moonlight!' (Daniel Drew 1797-1879)

Re Daniel Drew "Of all the great operators of Wall Street ... Daniel Drew furnishes the most remarkable instance of immense and long-continued success, followed by utter failure and hopeless bankruptcy".... makes you think!

His approach and ethics however were a little different from ours:

Have a great weekend all!

[bracke] 10/2/2017 16:05

Following due contemplation and thought I decided I would have a short (from 1649.17), only a small stake. Yes I know.......but it's a personal thing between me and the share price Ive got to get one over on it even if it only a small one.

[ianwwwhite] 07/2/2017 12:21

bracke

lol!

[bracke] 07/2/2017 12:09

ian

"Clearly if the Dow does get up past 24500, I will be removing my post, as is now the custom in this new post truth age!"
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Or you could claim 'alternative facts', which is what I will do.

[ianwwwhite] 07/2/2017 11:49

bracke

I take your point, let's see how it plays out....

Clearly if the Dow does get up past 24500, I will be removing my post, as is now the custom in this new post truth age!

[bracke] 07/2/2017 11:32

"In the meantime Dow 25,000? You're having a giraffe!"
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At the end of 2015 the DOW was 17,425. Talk of 20,000 was met with derision.

There have been forecasts of imminent large falls for several months. The largest DOW falls were in August 2015 and Jan/Feb 2016, they were both immediately bought back up.

It's been in sideways mode since mid December 2016 and generally remains so (rather like AHT). Eventually we will get the 'big one' but currently will it break and continue moving above 20,000 or will gravity take hold.

[ianwwwhite] 07/2/2017 10:57

bracke

Time is a great healer... :-)

In the meantime Dow 25,000? You're having a giraffe!

Currently the Baltic Dry Index, considered by some people as a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity ( ) has dropped to 735 from a level of 1200+ in November.

That together with USA's current lack of leadership, and markets that some think are overdue a correction would lead me to be very cautious for the immediate future..... but hey what do I know?

[bracke] 07/2/2017 10:17

Good day ian

"(I think it is time to forget the Xmas aberration!)"
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No chance! It was too big a lesson to forget.

Apart from spending on infrastructure Mr Trump said he would cut Corporation Tax. This would encourage Apple & Co to take back to the US their overseas earnings. Think what that would do to the markets.....DOW 25,000?

[kilgallp] 07/2/2017 10:09

I lost a packet on these years ago, when they announced there had been financial irregularities, and the price plummeted. It took me a very long time to get round to buying back in, but have been well rewarded for doing so.

[ianwwwhite] 07/2/2017 08:46

Good morning bracke et al,
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This share is spoiling you. Rising SP, divi, what more could you ask for.. that's rhetorical.
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Yes, this share has been bountiful and a once in a lifetime opportunity for me, even though I have tried to manage risk by selling a substantial part of my holding into the rises over the years and reinvesting into mutual funds. I remember there were some dark times with AHT too in the early days so I take nothing for granted!

Nevertheless, I can only agree with broadwood's comments that those who bought and hold have been amply rewarded. Hopefully, traders such as yourself have also done well (I think it is time to forget the Xmas aberration!), and no doubt the gyrations caused by Trumps erratic policies will provide ample opportunities in the future.

[broadwood] 07/2/2017 08:39

Much will depend on the progress of Trump's infra structure spend.

If there is any hint that this is not going to happen in the way the market currently feels it will, then its a rush to the lifeboats.

Needless to say if there should be a serious threat of him being impeached then the queue to get out would not be orderly.

[broadwood] 07/2/2017 08:16

If there was ever an example of a share to buy and hold, this is it. No need to jump until the story changes has been my motto here.

800% gain for me.

A degree of consolidation seems likely now.

[bracke] 06/2/2017 17:54

deadcat

You are correct I should have done well from this share but have failed to do so. It is my bete noir and it has become personal.

"I consider you my Ashtead expert."
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I seem able to analyse it for others but fail to take advantage myself. My Christmas Failure was particularly galling.

However I am determined that I will one day make some decent money from the share price

Currently the share price is in a state of limbo, managing to hold above 1600 but unable to maintain momentum when it attempts new highs which is not surprising when the rise from early November is taken into account, approx 400 points.

[deadcatbounce] 06/2/2017 17:25

Bracke,

I find it difficult to believe you have not made serious money on Ashtead as of yet, I consider you my Ashtead expert.

[bracke] 06/2/2017 17:17

Good day ian

This share is spoiling you. Rising SP, divi, what more could you ask for.. that's rhetorical.

This share has also given to me....mostly my 'comeuppance' but as is said; every dog has his/her day it's just that mine is a long time coming.

[ianwwwhite] 06/2/2017 17:10

Nice rise to the close with good volume on a generally gloomy day, and the dividend is due to be paid on 8th Feb - can't be bad!

[bracke] 02/2/2017 17:00

"at variance with the general market direction"
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That is not unusual with this share price


"if you must dabble in the dark arts!"
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I am addicted. Too much time and effort gone into it to discard it. Pretty much gone through the 'pain time' apart from that stupid failure at Christmas but such occurrences do serve as a reminder that the market is always ready to provide a kicking if you do silly things.

[ianwwwhite] 02/2/2017 15:35

Hi bracke

Glad to hear things are going well. Perhaps for reasons that we understand AHT seems at times recently to be particularly at variance with the general market direction, and quite twitchy where exchange rates are concerned.

I am glad that you have found some more predictable plays, if you must dabble in the dark arts!
.

[bracke] 02/2/2017 14:23

Good day ian

I did have to check Herpetology.

So far 2017 has been good to me; perhaps because I have avoided trading AHT.

Donning my Elite Guru Garb and entering into a state of transcendental meditation brings forth images of considerable volatility. Brexit, Trumpton, European Elections, Greek Debt. Get it right and it's ecstasy, get it wrong and it's misery.

I will be doing my best to avoid the froggie treatment.

[ianwwwhite] 02/2/2017 13:37

Lol!!

Come, come bracke, when I introduced herpetology to broaden the discussion, AHT had suffered a minor blip.... who knew it would carry on rising as it did? Certainly not I!

We do value the different perspective and analysis that serious day traders such as yourself bring to the table, alongside our own preoccupation with balance sheets, cash flow etc.

Keep up the good work, and good luck with your trades in 2017, it looks like it will be a year of opportunity......

PS Herpetology, for my fellow plebs is not what you might think.

It is the study of amphibians (including frogs, toads, salamanders, newts, and caecilians (gymnophiona)) and reptiles (including snakes, lizards, amphisbaenids, turtles, terrapins, tortoises, crocodilians, and the tuataras).....

Apologies for going off topic!

[bracke] 02/2/2017 13:07

Or as us plebs say 'to each his own'.

"I for one have the highest regard for day traders, and can only watch from the sidelines with reverential respect mixed with fear and wonder AND OF COURSE TAKING THE MICKEY WHEN IT GOES WRONG. LONG LIVE FROGGIE ...... ! :-)"
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I have inserted your omission.

[ianwwwhite] 02/2/2017 12:04

Good morning bracke,

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This of course will be of no interest to the 'buy and hold' merchants who view such day trading as akin to street traders and worthy only of disdain
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I for one have the highest regard for day traders, and can only watch from the sidelines with reverential respect mixed with fear and wonder ...... ! :-)

It takes all sorts to make a market,suum cuique!
.

[bracke] 01/2/2017 11:36

Good day fingers

That's certainly the gapiest chart I've ever seen.

I presume that South32 being a mining company it's share price moves in accord with the price of the materials it mines.

As fenners posts... the gaps were filled although with other gaps so all's well that ends well.

And onto AHT. This up, down, up, down is becoming tedious but it does present opportunities for the day trader. This of course will be of no interest to the 'buy and hold' merchants who view such day trading as akin to street traders and worthy only of disdain.

[ianwwwhite] 01/2/2017 10:22

fenners

Yes it looks pretty straight forward, I think we can safely leave this one to bracke to do the analysis :)