Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 25/5/2016 10:56

Well its certainly NOT happening here, or in europe.

[broadwood] 25/5/2016 10:32

US new home sales rocketed to an eight year high yesterday. As AHT rent construction equipment to a wide customer range, one would imagine this news might keep the pot bubbling for a while.

The Dow/S&P had a very good day yesterday - these markets seemingly now looking forward to an interest rate rise from the Fed rather than anticipating it with horror.

[bracke] 23/5/2016 11:49

Good day binliners

I don't analyse charts by 'shapes' but by price action, although I am aware of them

From my understanding of 'cup & handle' I don't think it is a cup and handle. The cup which I think you are referring to has a pointed base, a lopsided lip and a handle lower than the base.

I consider that it's in a rising channel from the low at 750 with resistances along the way and with the current target at 1000.

[binliners] 23/5/2016 10:19

I'd like to ask 'our' elite guru if the chart could be in a cup and handle formation or just returning to a rising channel?

Or is it too soon to tell Bracke?

[duncan doughnut] 22/5/2016 12:23

It feels like the trend is now to the up I think.

These are now a solid part of my portfolio.

[ianwwwhite] 22/5/2016 11:37

Short Tracker: shorts slight increase by CPMG:

Fund manager ..............% short... Change..... Date changed/created
AQR Capital Management, LLC ..0.61% ↑ 0.11% ......2016-05-12
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C.... 1.23% ↑ 0.09%...... 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc.................... 1.54% ↑ 0.12%...... 2016-05-18
Eminence Capital, LP......... 0.73% ↑ 0.11%...... 2016-04-22

Total 4.11% (was 3.99%)

[bracke] 21/5/2016 12:39

Good day 2flat

"bracke are you thinking about the 1100 and 1200 resistances yet."
==================================================================

No. Need to see how it deals with 1000 first.

[ianwwwhite] 20/5/2016 17:02

2flatpack

Now that the 'all clear' has sounded, I feel that it is safe to comment without fear of the 'jonah' effect kicking in.....

Well done fp2, good call on the 'Ashtead Friday' as you foresaw, it came good in the end with a healthy rise to end above brackes 955/960 key level.

A great end to a great week!

[2flatpack] 20/5/2016 08:57

Is this a good old fashioned Ashtead Friday I see before me.
bracke are you thinking about the 1100 and 1200 resistances yet.
I note we have just moved above the 200day sma which in previous years is where I would have been buying with any cash I could beg borrow or steal what a differance a hedge fund makes.
Sorry about the gibberish guys but it seems a lifetime since we have had a week of good news.
Cheers

[bracke] 19/5/2016 18:39

amaretto

Holders, which includes me, will be hoping that 1407 will hold. I am not very confident that it will. The price action suggests that it may decide to drop further to 1387 and maybe on to 1360.

It may look to retrace up before dropping further. If it does then 1440, if it gets that far, is likely to resist.

[amaretto1] 19/5/2016 18:07

Bracke, regards GSK u r bang on the money. is 1407 close enough to 1400 ??

[ianwwwhite] 19/5/2016 13:54

Bracke,

Just what we needed, top job, much appreciated!

[bracke] 19/5/2016 12:44

Time for a chart/price action review.

The share price had two good days on Tuesday and Wednesday having risen approx 85 points but we chart readers are not interested in such mundane matters as 'points' its the chart and price action that excites.

The key move was the break above resistance at 930 and so far the hold above it. It is also significant that the share price has retraced to just above the 50% fib from the previous swing high to the following swing low.

The target is the obvious one ie. 1000 apart from the psychological aspect it is also the next fib and the Upper Parallel of the Mod Schiff.

Ideally the share price will hold above the 50% fib but the probability is for a retrace before a further rise. Such a retrace becomes a problem if previous resistance fails to become support and allows the share price to drop below 930.

[ianwwwhite] 19/5/2016 12:28

bracke

Spot on then - elite guru status confirmed!

[bracke] 19/5/2016 11:59

'twas 955/960.

[ianwwwhite] 19/5/2016 10:48

2flatpack & bracke

As always I find that we are all pretty much in agreement, thanks for your views.

In the meantime AHT seems to be fighting hard to hang on to recent gains this morning, although I get the impression that we are swimming against the tide, and I have a feeling that one of brackes resistance points was around 9.65ish?

[2flatpack] 19/5/2016 10:07

Ian
I always thought the target price was for a 12 month period, but as you say its left unsaid.
Commenting on your 12&3 if you will allow me to join in.
1 I agree with, BUT These hedge funds are so large ( most of their backers clouded in mystery) they are able to attack the strongest of companies with impunity, damaging them in the process.
The II's who I would expect to defend their investments by purchasing shares at the depressed price, seem to join in. Maybe this is professional courtesy sharks don't eat sharks .
2&3 I also agree with But The hedge funds tend to use natural market downturns or black swan events to trigger and enhance their attacks .
Then we have the analysts reports. YES .
This is the second company I have had an interest in that has been subjected to a consented shorting attack.The first was IQE it was certainly damaged but hopefully it is recovering.
I think AHT has little to fear and hopefully the worst is over,
Cheers

[topicel] 19/5/2016 09:30

^ a bit like a broker forecast then Ian?!

Presumably, in accordance with your No. 2, the recent moves in AHT are driven by interest rate hike sentiment Stateside being back on the agenda? Although I could be mistaken!

Topicel

[ianwwwhite] 18/5/2016 19:05

bracke

Re 52258, "It may well do but the wider market rules."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With respect, I think that this is an over simplification.

My own view is that the share price is subject to three major influences:
1. Company fundamentals and return on operating capital employed, in cash
2 TA considerations, wider market sentiment and movements of shares as a whole
3. Short-term manipulation/plays by traders/hedgefunds etc

My experience is that over the long term, #1 is most likely to influence outcomes over time, but to each his own!

[ianwwwhite] 18/5/2016 18:52

2FP

Right on, I had something similar in mind when I posted #52256!

Furthermore, am I alone in wondering why the TP is seldom/never accompanied by a target date range? Like a stopped clock, sooner or later all forecasts are likely to come true, if you have the patience to wait long enough!

[2flatpack] 18/5/2016 17:34

Do the analyst have the reports approved by the hedge funds before they issue them, or do the hedge funds write the reports for the analysts to distribute.
or are they one and the same.
cheers

[bracke] 18/5/2016 16:31

Well look what the cat dragged in!!

I trust all is well with you uppompeii or if not well at least reasonable.

You will have seen my earlier Elite chart analysis suggesting that a break above resistance would target the 955/960 zone and it has come to pass which is not surprising after all I am an Elite Guru.