Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[topicel] 25/2/2016 08:19

As with all these things, known or unknown, lol, the impact of weather is really just another swings and roundabouts situation.

Seeing as we are awaiting a quarterly update on the 2nd March I'd say that severe weather halting outside work is generally bad retrospective reporting-wise, is it not? The benefits, what they are, would be factored in by number crunchers down the line and then become a forward-looking advantage.

Help, I'm turning into Rumsfeld! Where's Bracke and his morning gap briefing when you need him, maybe nine squid is back on before results again?

Topicel

[james97] 24/2/2016 22:49

Disco,

Ok I did miss that to a point. But even this still seems to be weather that stops things happening rather than which damages infrastructure that needs to be rebuilt.

[discodave4] 24/2/2016 22:30

James,

I did mean.......the "severe" weather being good news for AHT!.

Think you must have missed the "severe" cold weather & snow storms early Feb in the North-East of the US.



DD

[james97] 24/2/2016 22:14

That last post was was on Topicel's post.

Disco got in between. On that post no bad weather is not good for AHT, it brings construction to a halt. Severe extreme weather helps AHT but I don't think that has happened.

[james97] 24/2/2016 22:06

But still worst of all are the unknown unknowns.

[topicel] 24/2/2016 21:08

Custard pies loaded and aimed at any passing Laird. How very dare he!

Time for a Rumsfeldism..."the known unknowns of the shock market these days are more complex than the known knowns, if only we knew them".

We await another day of gripping excitement. Probably be flat. Lol.

Topicel

[bracke] 24/2/2016 18:14

Good day LAIRD

After that post anything I say will be considered vastly optimistic!

You should expect some flak from the 'natives'. Attempts to excuse yourself with comments along the lines of 'no shooting the messenger' will not help you.

We trade/invest in interesting times with biggish swings in FTSE and DOW both of which are in downtrend.

If AHT spikes up on the results it may be worth a short but AHT likes to catch out shorters so you need to be confident that the trade is correct.

Worth keeping an eye on shorts being held as posted by 2flat.

[lairddavid] 24/2/2016 16:28

Activity in the U.S. service sector declined in February for the first time in over two years, underpinning concerns that growing economic uncertainty is affecting domestic demand.

Market Economics' flash services purchasing managers index slid to 49.8 from 53.2 in January. Edging in below 50--the threshold that separates contraction from expansion--the February result marks the first contraction since October 2013, when the government shutdown affected activity.

The contraction was unexpected. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected the index to held relatively steady at 53.1.

Softer underlying new order growth and uncertainty about the economic outlook weighed on business activity, respondents indicated, and heavy snowfall across the east coast hampered activity.

"Weather can only explain part of the slowdown," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, who noted that, with the exception of the government shutdown in 2013, this month has been the worst month for business since the recession.

The service sector has powered the U.S. economy, offsetting a struggling manufacturing sector as Americans continued to shell out at the nation's shops, restaurants and other service providers. But gauges of the sector's health have cooled in recent months as consumers and businesses grow increasingly worried about the economy and financial market volatility.

In February, new business growth slowed for the third straight month and respondents pointed to growing reluctance by clients to commit to new projects.

As conditions soured, service providers' optimism over future conditions waned to a five-and-a-half year low. Still, firms hired and payroll growth held above the average seen since the start of the recover.

The Markit flash reading is composed of about 80%-85% of all responses that go into the final report. The survey comes ahead of the Institute for Supply Management's gauge, a carefully watched report on the state of the national service sector, which is due out on March 3.

(After our earnings announcement on the 1st) It may be worth a short the Bracke?

[family values] 24/2/2016 11:40

Is this the bottom? Looks cheap as chips at present.

Only concern is that positive results next week have a sting in the tail with warning on current trading.

In this market that might not go down well?

[mjcferguson] 24/2/2016 11:21

Profit before tax for first half was 28% up.Assuming that continues which I am fairly confident it will we will see £140m profit for third quarter next week and £625m profit for the year.We know that first month of third quarter was good and on top of that the exchange rate will be helping.These figures would appear to back up brokers targets of up to 1500p and make present price very undemanding!

[bracke] 24/2/2016 10:33

"Whether they will want to continue down after reaching the ML is 50/50."
=========================================================================

They have continued down. As I type FTSE is at a s/r zone.

My understanding is that the fall in the £/$ is to the advantage of AHT.

It will be interesting to see if those wicked shorters cover before the results.

[2flatpack] 24/2/2016 08:24

Some movement .
Total up due to ODEY who shorted then closed to a lesser degree.
.
Adelphi Capital LLP 0.70% ↑ 0.10% 2016-02-03
Alyeska Investment Group 0.60% ↑ 0.10% 2016-01-29
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C 1.23% ↑ 0.09% 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc 1.42% ↑ 0.04% 2016-01-28
Coatue Management, L.L.C 1.17% ↓ -0.08% 2016-02-18
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.86% ↓ -0.04% 2016-02-22
Total 5.98%
Cheers

[2flatpack] 24/2/2016 08:10

Took profit on the spread bets this morning.
Expect to go back in before results.
Cheers

[bracke] 23/2/2016 16:14

Volatility is all very well if you are on the right side of it.

The drop this pm is supposedly as a result of poor US Consumer Confidence Data. Unless you have prior knowledge of the data, trading over data release time is a lottery.

AHT has held up reasonably well.

Both FTSE and DOW are heading towards Median Lines. Whether they will want to continue down after reaching the ML is 50/50.

[topicel] 23/2/2016 15:52

Seems like it then Bracke. I'm not one myself but day traders must be having a fantastic time with this and other shares in this volatile market, providing you have the capital and stomach for it!

I'm reminded of sketch-o-graph! As long as we won't need a defib, eh?!

Topicel

[bracke] 23/2/2016 14:23

Good day Topicel

"I would anticipate you'll see 900p easily broken prior to results."
====================================================================

IF you are correct and it is 'easy' it would suggest serious intent and I would expect the gap up to 965 to be filled relatively quickly, maybe before the results.

As for the gaps to the downside, two are small and the larger one down at 805 is looking like a breakaway. 900 zone is key.

[topicel] 23/2/2016 13:44

Thanks Bracke. All things being equal - which they seldom are of course - I would anticipate you'll see 900p easily broken prior to results.

Presumably you are not worried too much about the downside gaps any longer until then?

From a blustery Haute Garonne.

Topicel

[bracke] 23/2/2016 12:08

When the share price reaches 900 resistance is a strong probability but if there is intent to take it higher watch for a 'shot' of volume to push it through resistance.

[bracke] 22/2/2016 16:35

Thursday/Friday were the retrace. Now lined up ready to attack 900.

[topicel] 22/2/2016 10:42

Au contraire. Shorts are reducing ahead of next week's quarterly update from AHT.

Still time to chance your arm and anticipate the good RNS and maybe equally positive market reaction?

Not much macro to worry about this week, is there?

Topicel

[ali47fish] 22/2/2016 10:10

2flat hve the managers increased thei holdings above?

[2flatpack] 22/2/2016 08:26

Another brick in the wall.
Adelphi Capital LLP 0.70% ↑ 0.10% 2016-02-03
Alyeska Investment Group 0.60% ↑ 0.10% 2016-01-29
Blue Ridge Capital, L.L.C 1.23% ↑ 0.09% 2016-02-10
CPMG, Inc 1.42% ↑ 0.04% 2016-01-28
Coatue Management, L.L.C 1.17% ↓ -0.08% 2016-02-18
ODEY ASSET MANAGEMENT LLP 0.76% ↑ 0.26% 2016-02-11
Total 5.88%
.
So say good old Boris or was it David?
Cheers

[topicel] 19/2/2016 15:54

Bracke - whatever Cameron makes of it the out brigade will still sneer and the dailies are whipping up the 'no' vote even now. Plenty more volatility over Brexit whatever happens today/this weekend leading into June.

But yep, a nice bounce before results would be luvverly.

Good weekend all.

Topicel