Ascent Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dodge city] 07/12/2017 08:45

So where's this IPPC permit?

[chesty1] 06/12/2017 14:40

So yesterday was just a p&d exercise cheers I will go back to sleep tem!

[jackster] 06/12/2017 14:29

Who cares what WH Ireland say in their broker note. It's not worth the paper it is written on. They are Ascent's in-house broker ie. they get paid by Ascent to write a positive broker note. They haven't been remotely accurate in any of their share price predictions.

With the continuing placements (of which more are imminent) and the continuing of Henderson/PrimaryBid selling into the market, the share price will not rise by any significant amount anytime soon.

[oilisgold] 06/12/2017 14:25

So those that took my hint in GGP, could have traded for a nice 30% profit. Still time to get in as mega news expected. Don't forget MRS as well.

AST trust me plenty of time to buy back in. Come back in FEB here.

[colnabean] 06/12/2017 10:57

WH Ireland should preface all their stock market research by the words "once upon a time".

[dandadandan] 06/12/2017 08:21

IMO due some diligence.

All you need is patience.


GLA

[kidcop] 05/12/2017 22:17

Evening cyber warriors.

[russell crowe] 05/12/2017 20:57

We have published complete indicative financial (earning/cash-flow/balance sheet) estimates for Ascent Resources out to 2022 to provide a financial perspective on the implications of the company increasing gas production from current levels of circa 3.1 mmcf/d (also our estimate for 2018) to 35 mmcf/d (our estimate for 2022).

In addition to the increase in production our estimates assume that the company will start selling gas into the local Slovenian market at a price of circa €5.44/mcf in 2H 2019, a 47% uplift from current levels.

This reflects our expectation that the company will build a gas plant to upgrade its gas with completion in 2H 2019.

The indicative financial projections are provided on the following page, relevant notes are provided on this page.

Our valuation: We estimated that the full success case value of the company’s core asset, the Petisovci gas field in Slovenia, amounts to €161.8m (£136.9m) or 5.67p/sh.

However, to capture that full value will require i) regulatory permissions which we believe are forthcoming; ii) funding to construct a straightforward gas plant; and iii) reservoir performance consistent with our expectations.

To reflect uncertainty relating to these factors we have included only 3.11p/sh of value in our target price, which reflects an arbitrary judgement.

On balance, we believe that our valuation is looking increasingly conservative in light of progress made by the company.

We therefore underline the deep trading discount of the company’s shares relative to our estimate of fair value.

Our valuation is derived by discounting after-tax cash flows over the life of the field with a required rate of return of 10%.

This so-called NPV10 approach is standard practice in the oil & gas industry, although few believe that today a 10% discount rate applied to future cash flows is highly favourable given the low level of interest rates.

The financial projections provided here are consistent with our success-case NPV10 model.

G&A: We have included G&A costs at the field level for the life of the field, which is conservative.

Working capital: The financial projections and our NPV10 valuation assume that payment is made two months after delivery (translating to a receivables balance of £9.0m in 2022) and that capex in any half-year is 25% pre-paid in the prior half-year.
We will revisit these assumptions in due course, which will likely have the effect of freeing up cash relative to our expectations.

In summary: Based on our estimates, in 2022 the company will be producing 35mmcf/d, it will have revenue of £53.6m, cashflow from operations of £44.9m and earnings of £34.9m. A complete review of our assumptions and estimates is provided in our initiation note (11 October 2017).

Points of interest: We draw investor attention to the relatively limited capex requirements required to achieve this growth profile.

This is principally due to our expectation that much of this growth will come from working over existing wells and not from new drilling.

However, to maintain production at 35mmcf/d for a period of ten years will require investment in new wells after 2022, which has been factored into our NPV10 valuation.

We have assumed that the capex is funded by cash flow from operations and equity; however, in reality, this is likely to be largely or at least partially debt funded in our opinion.

Perspective on Ascent: In our opinion, Ascent represents a relatively rare oil & gas investment opportunity because value creation for the company relates to project delivery vs. exploration or appraisal drilling.

From this perspective, we believe it offers a straightforward and highly attractive growth outlook with relatively modest risks.

We believe the company is on a positive growth trajectory and that is deeply undervalued.

BUY

[temmujin] 05/12/2017 20:00

7am RNS x 3 tomorrowToday 19:10IPCC, TR1, Takeover approach @5p.

[jovi1] 05/12/2017 19:58

This can be rubbish but it is untrue that for the permit the company need cash
As far as I am aware the appeal is on environmental ground and money is not the issue

[dodge city] 05/12/2017 19:50

Target price 3.11 in 2H 2019.

If that's not a good enough reason not to invest here I don't know what is.

Russia will have invaded the country by then.

Tower Resources looks a much better bet.

LOLOLOL

[mrphiljones] 05/12/2017 19:33

Placing price?.......

[temmujin] 05/12/2017 19:16

HO,HO,HO! SANTA HAS COME EARLY...

WH Ireland posted a squawk about AST
11:0405 Dec
Ascent Resources*#
Detailed Indicative WHI Financial Estimates Provided to 2022

We have published complete indicative financial (earning/cash-flow/balance sheet) estimates for Ascent Resources out to 2022 to provide a financial perspective on the implications of the company increasing gas production from current levels of circa 3.1 mmcf/d (also our estimate for 2018) to 35 mmcf/d (our estimate for 2022). In addition to the increase in production our estimates assume that the company will start selling gas into the local Slovenian market at a price of circa €5.44/mcf in 2H 2019, a 47% uplift from current levels. This reflects our expectation that the company will build a gas plant to upgrade its gas with completion in 2H 2019. The indicative financial projections are provided on the following page, relevant notes are provided on this page. Our valuation: We estimated that the full success case value of the company’s core asset, the Petisovci gas field in Slovenia, amounts to €161.8m (£136.9m) or 5.67p/sh. However, to capture that full value will require i) regulatory permissions which we believe are forthcoming; ii) funding to construct a straightforward gas plant; and iii) reservoir performance consistent with our expectations. To reflect uncertainty relating to these factors we have included only 3.11p/sh of value in our target price, which reflects an arbitrary judgement. On balance, we believe that our valuation is looking increasingly conservative in light of progress made by the company. We therefore underline the deep trading discount of the company’s shares relative to our estimate of fair value. Our valuation is derived by discounting after-tax cash flows over the life of the field with a required rate of return of 10%. This so-called NPV10 approach is standard practice in the oil & gas industry, although few believe that today a 10% discount rate applied to future cash flows is highly favourable given the low level of interest rates. The financial projections provided here are consistent with our success-case NPV10 model. G&A: We have included G&A costs at the field level for the life of the field, which is conservative. Working capital: The financial projections and our NPV10 valuation assume that payment is made two months after delivery (translating to a receivables balance of £9.0m in 2022) and that capex in any half-year is 25% pre-paid in the prior half-year. We will revisit these assumptions in due course, which will likely have the effect of freeing up cash relative to our expectations. In summary: Based on our estimates, in 2022 the company will be producing 35mmcf/d, it will have revenue of £53.6m, cashflow from operations of £44.9m and earnings of £34.9m. A complete review of our assumptions and estimates is provided in our initiation note (11 October 2017). Points of interest: We draw investor attention to the relatively limited capex requirements required to achieve this growth profile. This is principally due to our expectation that much of this growth will come from working over existing wells and not from new drilling. However, to maintain production at 35mmcf/d for a period of ten years will require investment in new wells after 2022, which has been factored into our NPV10 valuation. We have assumed that the capex is funded by cash flow from operations and equity; however, in reality, this is likely to be largely or at least partially debt funded in our opinion. Perspective on Ascent: In our opinion, Ascent represents a relatively rare oil & gas investment opportunity because value creation for the company relates to project delivery vs. exploration or appraisal drilling. From this perspective, we believe it offers a straightforward and highly attractive growth outlook with relatively modest risks. We believe the company is on a positive growth trajectory and that is deeply undervalued, BUY.
BUY

[dandadandan] 05/12/2017 16:56

Just look at W H Ireland on Vox.

Who or what prompted this today?
3.11p to 5.95p

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/activity/85017/


GLA.

[lastoleave] 05/12/2017 16:39

Could be Dan Looks like something happening

[dandadandan] 05/12/2017 16:26

Are you getting ready for an RNS?


GLA

[waterloo01] 05/12/2017 14:48

interesting trades.

[chesty1] 05/12/2017 14:47

Pump n dump not pimp n dump that's later!!!

[chesty1] 05/12/2017 14:46

Ello ello ello pimp n dump going on or news !!!!

[lithological heterogeneities] 05/12/2017 14:45

What's that weird spike thing ?