Armour Group Share Discussion Threads

[callumross] 05/9/2010 11:17

Think you are maybe a bit optimistic with the EPS outcome for the year just finished, Electronica. I would say 2p is more realistic, which still leaves the shares cheap as chips unless there is something we don't know. Guess that we will know later this week, though. If the forecasts are in line, I will top up but not got the confidence to do so until I read the statement!

[essentialinvestor] 05/9/2010 09:52

I traded this back in the day.
Did well out of Vistec in the early 1990's,
which Bob Morton turned around and grew.

The weather related issue would cause me some concern, imv,
as I posted at the time.

It is an interesting Company with some nice Brands,
watch the cashflow, that may be the key.

I would agree there may be an opportunity for a re-rating,
one to watch for now perhaps.

[electronica] 05/9/2010 07:22

envirovision

Under current circumstances I would expect a company like AMR to trade on a historic P/E of 7. We've already seen 1.15p for H1 - so what do we expect for H2.

The retail recovery in demand reported in HI has continued in other consumer based stocks, albeit at a slightly decellerating level - look particularly at DSG where "brown goods" demand is up 3% in the last quarter. A 3%+ rise in underlying demand will appear as a 5-6% increase in AMR revenues as increasing exports & new product ranges are factored in. This increase in sales revenues will result in a 15-20%+ rise in AMR eps as costs are held down - on that basis we're looking at 1.35p for H2 & 2.5p for this full year.

I expect that the cost of sorting the rumoured "quality problems" will not have a significant impact on ptp & won't impact my 2.5p eps forecast. AMR have not issued a "profits warning", so the damage can't have been that great - if there's any damage at all.

If AMR have solved the supply chain problems (and there's no reason to believe that they haven't) then good cash flow should have a positive impact on the P/E. With AMR's market position & growth prospects we ought to be looking at a forward P/E of 8-10 as the company rehabituates itself - but we're going to take a year to start getting there.

So - the finals in late November could deliver us a 2.5p eps on an historic P/E of 7 - indicating a 17-18p share price. The Q3 IMS in September 2011 should point to an FY2011 eps of 3.2p on a forward P/E of 8+ - indicating a Sept 2011 shareprice of 24-28p. That's a 100%+ possibility in 12 months, that's why I'm in.

The IMS in the next few days could start this re-rating of AMR - "you pays your money & you takes your chance".

[dnfa1975] 04/9/2010 22:08

I wish bob norton would bid for this though he has lost his mojo in the last few years - and his teeth and hair too.

or perhaps i should say he has gone to the dogs

[envirovision] 04/9/2010 20:18

Awaiting your answer Electronica? In paticular since I answered your question. Meantime look at the price get whacked down even after the ii numpties bilge.

[empirestate] 04/9/2010 15:48

someone not too optimistic dropping that 185k

[callumross] 02/9/2010 12:59

But all of that is surely factored into the current depressed price, Envirovision? I am certain that the outlook statement will be very cautious given consumer confidence, budget cuts etc.. but surely if they simply state that they will meet current market forecasts, the shares are underpinned at these levels. I don't think anyone is expecting a return to EPS of 4p per share anytime soon. What is expected is that cash flow has turned strongly positive in the second half and that the debt has turned substantially down. On the positive side they really do have a dominant position in the markets they serve and must be a bid target for any VC companies with a bit of cash at these levels.

[envirovision] 02/9/2010 11:23

Well the world cup was a none starter as people stopped buying as soon as they saw how bad england were. Then theres the recall of the stands which break so that the panel falls down and smashes. Then theres the poor start to the year, christ knows what that was all about seems more like an excuse than anything. Then theres the fact consumers have simply not been spending as hoped.

How about yourself, clearly you are more hopefull, where is your evidence for that assertion then?

[electronica] 02/9/2010 08:30

loverat

I too hold (lots of) EKT, also TTG, TRI & a couple of other industrials that have been 4 or 5 baggers for me over the last 12-15 months.

I'm looking for the "next wave" now & AMR seems to fit the bill. I've also bought into MXR (Metalrax) & SCPA (Scapa) on the same basis. I will hold all for up to 2 years without movement if necessary. There's value in AMR (& the others. Can the management unlock it?

[empirestate] 02/9/2010 07:23

good report on tv sales at DSGI re pre world cup, hope this gets reflected in the AMR sales figs too, which would be nice

[empirestate] 01/9/2010 22:12

looking alot better now for the run to update. am confident of some decent numbers

[electronica] 01/9/2010 17:53

dnfa

Actually a guy over on the iii boards. I would not have paid 13p in one big hit but gone in at £3-4k at a time in order not to get shafted by the mm - each to his own, though

[dnfa1975] 01/9/2010 17:33

nob horton filling his jumbo boots prob

[callumross] 01/9/2010 14:06

Big buyer at 13p for 1/4 a million shares! Nice to see some confidence in the forthcoming TS!

[electronica] 30/8/2010 07:34

empirestate

I'm betting that they have solved that supply chain problem & also that the rumoured "quality problem" has been sorted.

We should get the pre-close IMS on (or around) 10th September & I'm expecting these 2 issues to be briefly addressed in a positive light. If the demand recovery in the first half has also been carried through to end August then we could be looking at an EPS of 2.2p to 2.5p on £62m of revs with the Finals in late November. With a "re-rated" (but still v low) P/E of 6-7 we could be looking at a 14-16p share price by end 2010.

This makes AMR a top-up for me - probably after the IMS rather than before.

[empirestate] 30/8/2010 01:11

callum, have faith, hopefully they would have reduced some of their inventories which would have improved the cash flow.

[callumross] 28/8/2010 13:44

Who says they are "mad"? I hold 80k of these but I am a bit nervous as to how they are faring. They rely very much on consumer confidence in the markets they serve, and we all know how the public sector cuts in the coming year may impinge on the company. Forecast EPS of 2p for the year suggests the company is very cheap trading on a P/E of less than 6. Also they are pretty dominant in both their auto and home electronics sales. I am actually looking to add but won't have the confidence to do so until I see the trading statement confirming that they can meet market expectations, and also that cash flow did indeed turn positive in the second half. Just as important as profits IMHO.

[empirestate] 27/8/2010 23:57

been a few mad sellers over the last couple of days, can't understand it meself with update due in a week or so

[empirestate] 24/8/2010 16:59

Two weeks till update, looking forward to it meself, could quite possibly be one of their best years

[dnfa1975] 18/8/2010 11:42

i wish for a bid here, 18p would be nice

[empirestate] 18/8/2010 11:26

a decent swing from an early discount to positive, just wished i had been up to catch it.

[empirestate] 14/8/2010 14:49

full year trading update due here around 10th sept going by last years report. will pick up a few prior to that. demand for equipment for the world cup may have fuelled some additional revenues.