Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[uknighted] 15/7/2020 09:12

Sometimes investors think they have discovered another 10 bagger and plough all their money in and if that means selling other shares so be it.

[renniks2016] 15/7/2020 09:11

90 percent of trades showing as sell are buys. ;)

[bigglesbingham] 15/7/2020 09:11

Up because we will be classed as a dividend payer which because a different ballgame

[renniks2016] 15/7/2020 09:09

Every day we are getting closer to to significant news and updates and bizarrely people still willing to take risk else where and hope to get back here before the off, they must have money to burn! Any any thoughts when we might go ex div?

[kaos3] 15/7/2020 08:47

good point on accounting - reading - how much we will see what is going on in the future with our main asset

there will be no consolidation .....

[bigglesbingham] 15/7/2020 08:34

Yea the sells are at 3.95-3.98. There is a persistent seller of 250k daily.

[master esox] 15/7/2020 08:32

Mostly buys this morning, the early 50k trade was my buy.

[d1g3y] 15/7/2020 08:29

Hopefully that is the realisation that the results will bring to the market

[bigglesbingham] 15/7/2020 08:29

Some bed isa action going on

[soulsauce] 14/7/2020 22:07

Certainly is Charles.

[charles clore] 14/7/2020 22:02

The disconnect is baffling soul.

[soulsauce] 14/7/2020 21:22

What seems odd here is that we have not benefited from the big increase in silver, as a decent proportion of our revenue comes from it.
Our mkt cap has remained static while silver has put on 20%.
With the silver credit we will be getting towards $2000 per ounce

[charles clore] 14/7/2020 21:16

I note that Somerville expects the full year accounts to be published this month.

[bigglesbingham] 14/7/2020 20:13

Yes seem to remember they did some accounts for JV last time. Seems ages ago ha ha

[temujiin] 14/7/2020 20:07

I’m not sure the money in current JV will show in Ariana accounts.
===========

One would expect it to be accounted for somewhere though, as perhaps

Share of profit of joint venture or
Investment in Joint Venture or
Cash and cash equivalents

To not account for a large wedge of cash owing to AAU, would be misleading to the market to say the least, so I expect it'll be in there somewhere.

[bigglesbingham] 14/7/2020 19:56

I'm not sure the money in current JV will show in Ariana accounts. It will still be within existing JV as there hasn't been an RNS stating otherwise.

[soulsauce] 14/7/2020 18:14

Not bad from shareprophets for a change but no mention of Cyprus. It certainly will be interesting to see how much cash we have even before the $30m.

[bigglesbingham] 14/7/2020 17:50

Readers will know that I have gradually been top slicing my holding in AIM-listed Turkish gold miner Ariana Resources(AAU) – not because it was no longer cheap, but because having seen the shares roofing it over the past couple of years my holding had simply become far too big. It has been an awkward time as a ShareProphets writer as we have very strict rules about disclosure and selling tipped stocks, and whilst I have always retained my bullish view I have wanted to offload a few along the way. But I have a dirty little secret.On July 1 Ariana delivered on its promise of a proposed corporate action which would see it reduce its ownership of the Red Rabbit project, including the Kiziltepe processing plant, and Salinbas on the other side of the country to 23.5% in return for $30 million in cold, hard cash. My thinking previous to this was that at around 3.5p a share, Ariana was probably pretty fairly priced for what it was already producing (but that does not take account of what could come from further mines at Salinbas and Tavsan, nor other assets awaiting development). So when 3.5p came and went, and we had not had definite news on the proposed corporate action, it was time to snip a little more from my holding and I suggested that those who wished to could do the same.But now, subject to a General Meeting, this deal looks nailed on to go through: the proposed partner has signed up and this is, in my view, a game-changer. In addition, the gold price has headed up to around $1800 and meanwhile the shares have slipped back to 3.85p, giving the outfit a market capitalisation of £40.8 million.If we strip out the incoming (almost certainly) $30 million – about £24 million – that leaves the company valued at cash plus £16.8 million. Ariana will be producing, via its joint venture, around 20,000 oz gold-equivalent this year, with a new mine coming into production in around 18 months to double output and a further mine at Salinbas with a 50,000 oz ticket in the not so distant future and 23.5% of that comes to around 21,000 oz a year. Kiziltepe has cash costs of around $500 per oz so even if they rise to $800 that would still surely make Ariana look very cheap indeed. And as I understand it there is to be a special dividend too!I suggested on 1 July that following the corporate action news, purchasing at up to 4.5p would see you being well rewarded with an immediate target of 5p, and a few days later suggested at 3.95p that then was as good a time to buy as any. Now the shares are just 3.85p and despite my over-sized holding I am taking my own medicine: I have gone and bought some more.I do not plan to be holding these additional shares for long and at 5p I'll be looking to sell them again for an easy 25% gain, as I am still overloaded with Ariana shares. But right now they seem a complete gimme, so despite my concern at having far too much exposure, I've piled in for a quick side-portion.Ariana has its full year results due out in July – a little delayed by the Coronavirus restrictions – and it will be fascinating to see how much cash Ariana actually has, bearing in mind it took a £1.6 million dividend from its subsidiary in March, and one wonders how much of the loans to the JV have now been repaid as well. I also expect news on what special dividend might be proposed upon completion of the corporate action which will see $30 million arrive in cash.So I have put my money where my mouth is and suggest you consider doing the same for an immediate target of 5p per share. Of course, longer term, I have no idea just how high the gold price will go but I am certain we are nowhere near the top yet. As gold head upwards, gold companies shares will head north and eventually the trickle-down effect will reach even the smallest producer.As such, I would not be surprised to see Ariana double from here on a 12-18 month view, and maybe more, given the rising production profile on offer.So my stance is buy, especially for those not exposed, or not exposed enough.

[risa5] 14/7/2020 17:42

Can anybody post this article...

[mattjos] 14/7/2020 16:24

that's the brief re-rest over with now, thank you :-)

Upwards from here, imo

[xow98] 14/7/2020 16:21

Shareprophets thinks it a buy again, short term hold, sell at 5.

[someuwin] 14/7/2020 16:13

Positive AAU piece on ShareProphets.

[jaf1948] 14/7/2020 16:01

Donald,

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[donald pond] 14/7/2020 15:23

I disagree. I think the lack of results makes the company uninvestable for all but diehard gold fans. It doesn't matter how good they are, the fact is at the moment if you are looking at what to invest in your first port of call will be the last set of results, the ones here are for a period ending 18 months ago, which was a lifetime in terms of the gold market, and so you will stop looking.
I think AAU is well undervalued, but it needs up to date results, from which it can generate some interest and new buyers. It's simple as that. I can't understand why they can't issue them now: auditing is just a matter of looking at paperwork, it doesn't entail traipsing around the mines themselves.

[jaf1948] 14/7/2020 15:19

I agree. The results are already widely expected to be good so a lot of that is therefore already built into the price. I would not expect any great increase in the share price from them.