Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 20/10/2019 10:52

Wales have won

[plasybryn] 20/10/2019 07:53

That accords with my thinking totally JaynesDad. Possibly gold & silver are worth more per oz by then of course. What do you think is a realistic Market Cap? Five times earnings? Ten times?

[jaynesdad] 20/10/2019 07:44

plasbryn, desertjoe, I remember reading that payback on the Tavsan loan is planned to be 1.1 years. So if things go was planned, which is of course open to question, site work will start late 2020, be finished and in production start of 2022, loan paid off first quarter 2023. Then our share of JV production is a debt free 25000 oz pa, say £25m net income a year. That is of course if it goes to plan.

[desertjoe] 19/10/2019 23:58

Understood Plasybryn. I've always had concern at the dilutary effect of increased loans but, in fairness, Ariana has trod carefully and if such were necessary to bring Tavsan or any other of their sites quickly into production I am sure they would be intent of paying it off asap.

[plasybryn] 19/10/2019 22:52

Charles - can you share with us some more of your thoughts as to how you arrive at 10p next year or is it just wishful thinking?Derertjoe- Perhaps we shouldn't count an overdraft type facility in the same breath as the CAPEX debt to build the mine, which will of course be cleared by Easter 2020. But as you say we could be completely debt free by Easter 2021 although perhaps by then we will have taken on a loan to fund Tavsan.

[desertjoe] 19/10/2019 22:06

Interesting points, Charles. Previous share price drops seemed gradual and in tandem with periods of lack of RNS or news from our BoD. Nevertheless I was surprised when it fell back to 2p . Thereafter the situation on the Syrian northern border obviously frightened some investors - perhaps to the point of foolishly (imho) selling out. I also believe that Swallows' (recent post) has identified another relevant trait.

However much as I relish 10p next year I have some doubts, mostly because our recent good news from Company sources appears to indicate a greater time span than had been thought before major schemes and greater productivity came to fruition. It looked like debts would be sorted by the coming Spring....but it seems there were a few things to be added in. (according to LSE chat).

Sorry, Charles, but I think 10p is rather premature. I was right in my predictions for 2p by last Spring and I have (on record) predicted 3p by "early next year".

[jaynesdad] 18/10/2019 17:30

I would like to see Ariana appear as one of the shares of the week (or whatever they call them) in Investors Chronicle. I used to read IC but then thought it was a bit naff but a) big circulation, not only buyers/subscribers but people like me who sometimes have a crafty look at WH Smiths b) massive boost the week they are picked c) frequent follow up articles on their tips over subsequent weeks.

[jc2706] 18/10/2019 14:32

As I have said before on this and other boards, the worst thing to get is a share tip from Shareprophets. They are quite dreadful at picking and the kiss of death for a share price.

[shortarm] 18/10/2019 13:47

Sharetipped again....!

[shortarm] 18/10/2019 13:20

Hence my logon.....

[soulsauce] 18/10/2019 13:04

Charles good post.

I have long argued that over conservativism here from both company and broker has been like a lead weight on the share price.
The bigger shareholders have always been happy to run with the under promise over deliver mantra but hopefully that is changing as Plasybryn post shows.

I think you are right with what it may take to change it.

[swallowsflysouth] 18/10/2019 12:51

Some miners do seem to be suffering from a market 'over-reaction' when poor communications use for news. Be it a lack of information on bad news and corrective measures that will be taken, or a lack of enthusiasm regarding good news.

[soulsauce] 18/10/2019 12:44

Lol mcmather, short arms and deep pockets is the order of the day on the sunny side o't Pennines. 😉

[alwaysevolving] 18/10/2019 12:25

Hahaha, well played. Changing your post like that cpap

Here is what you actually posted however:-

Full ask now @ both AAU & KAV for that 100k - Next ones higher?

Same post as on multiple other boards no?

[alwaysevolving] 18/10/2019 12:14

Cpap man spamming multiple boards with the same post. He must be really desperate to get out of KAV lols. Jog on Spams.

Now you can filter me on this board too!

[cpap man] 18/10/2019 12:01

To date, all results for drilling conducted within the Derya area have been returned, completing the first objective from this second phase of work. A total of 726 meters for six holes have now been assayed at the onsite laboratory. A further 2,436 meters of additional drilling for 19 holes is still currently being processed at the mine laboratory for the Arzu North and Arzu South areas.

[charles clore] 18/10/2019 11:58

plas - good post! I think what will happen eventually is it will reach a tipping point where the company's conservatism will no longer be tolerated and some tipster or other
will summarise everything that has been achieved (plus the crazy amount of cash being generated from 2020) into words investors can understand. At that point the market will be all over it and the price will explode. I would expect to see 10p+ at some point next year. Let's hope the company isn't taken out for a song before then. If that happens the directors will only have themselves to blame.

[mcmather] 18/10/2019 11:41

It's probably soul; they can peel oranges in their pockets over on that side.

[bigglesbingham] 18/10/2019 11:14

A sale of 30 shares?? Any idea? Is it mms communicating with each other,?

[bigglesbingham] 18/10/2019 10:30

Can't dispute what you say pal. Apart from it takes time to assimilate a resource and minelife from drill results and they said they would issue when received. Would rather this tact however than the Aussies at SML approach.

[soulsauce] 18/10/2019 10:21

Well said Plasybryn.

[plasybryn] 18/10/2019 09:47

It's not so much the pit by pit drill results that are important Biggles, it is the result of that work which leads us too:-
1. A Resource update which is due this quarter
2. A Reserve update due "early 2020"
3. All resulting in an extension to the Life of Mine. This should take us from circa 6 years now to 10 years plus.
This is the reassurance the market (Institutional Investors in particular) want.
This could have been better communicated again in the recent Derya Drilling results RNS imo. Too matter of fact as usual and setting out 3 objectives which weren't really objectives. They are the actions to deliver the real objective which is a new Resource/Reserve & Extended Life of Mine. I know it might sound like semantics but it's important imo. They often misuse objectives and strategy.
Then the earlier RNS about "Royalty & Database Acquisition". Again too matter of matter. What does this translate into? What does it really mean? Write it with speak aimed at helping investors appreciate the value creation.
The third licence on Salinbas again went largely unnoticed and under valued? The Co.seems so reticent to step outside a very conservative line and this is reflected in the current share price imo. After all this good news and weeks from having a massive uplift in our free cash flow we are back under 2p. The PR Co. & the directors can't ignore the fact that they are failing to drive value forward. Even P.G. thinks the S.P. at this gold price should be closer to 5p. They have got to create momentum otherwise we just keep getting overlooked and ignored. The Quarterlies next week should speak for themselves, but lets have some comment in any media interviews about the free cash flow from January and what it means for our valuation and future plans to drive value.
Ariana with attitude has never played out. What on earth did they mean when they coined that phrase?

[charles clore] 18/10/2019 08:58

soul - if everyone who sold said that, it would turn out to be true. On the other hand if everyone bought back...

[soulsauce] 18/10/2019 08:35

Lol JD I doubt if I buy back my 225k it won't make much difference.

[bigglesbingham] 18/10/2019 08:29

More drilling results due too.