Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 13:03

If you are connecting to the conference call [phone] at 1pm don't forget the password 'Ariana'.

[claretandbluedave] 01/10/2019 13:03

Yes, on the call. Starts in a moment or two.

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 13:02

Apparently starting in a couple of minutes time!

[paul280i] 01/10/2019 13:02

Phoned in again and only music, 2 mins to go I'm told

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 13:00

You have to pay your phone bill Paul. Ha Ha. I've just got naff music.

[paul280i] 01/10/2019 12:58

Anyone on the call, holding on but line gone dead

[jaynesdad] 01/10/2019 12:56

No idea Charles, there may have been a variety of reasons for choosing AS to exploit first

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 12:35

JD - I am of the opinion that quantity of ore processed takes second place to profit. Do you think perhaps it was planned that Arzu South was mined first knowing that grades would drop slightly after 3 years but this would be more than offset by considerably more income to AAU as the loan was paid off?

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 12:32

We need to build the Resource?reserves up at Red Rabbit before talking about increasing throughput. The aim is to get to a 10 life of mine up from the current 6 at 25,000 ozs p.a. I believe. I hope we will hear more about that this afternoon.
I think William Payne is probably best to answer the deep accounting questions.

[jaynesdad] 01/10/2019 12:28

Don't think the capital cost of a second ball mill is the problem. That will allow more crushed rock, which will be necessary as the grades are going to drop (as we leave arzu south) to maintain production at these sort of levels. That is why I think we may be closer to 25,000 oz this year than the 30,000 some expect - the board don't want a shock if the production slumps to, say, 22500 oz next year. I think we mustn't disregard the design of the plant - just because you shovel more and more rock in one end there is a finite amount the rest of the plant can process before it comes out the other!
Sad that it is only Kerim today, he may be MD but he cant really be expected to field complex accounting questions the was MDV could.

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 12:11

soul - agreed. The cost of purchase and installation could, of course be a slight problem.

[soulsauce] 01/10/2019 11:50

May be Charles assuming they had the resources to feed it however I am not sure a doubling up of ball mill would necessarily mean a doubling of production as it would probably allow them more down time for maintenance.

But even 35k oz would be a massive increase in income.

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 11:32

Today was going to be Co-hosted by Kerim & Michael. Now only Kerim!

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 11:30

JD - investigating thoroughly rather than diving in headfirst is Kerim's trademark. It would not surprise me to see this in play at Tavsan.

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 11:26

Ask today for reinstatement of the Gantt chart.

[jaynesdad] 01/10/2019 11:17

There you go again Charles, delay at Tavsan because they have found too much gold. They have found additional deposits, that was reported recently but that was expected. Don't think exploration success should hold up the construction of the plant else we may never get the plant started!

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 10:54

soul - you say 'we are years away from getting production up to 50k oz.' That is true but supposing they add a second ball mill to kiziltepe. Wouldn't that (almost) do it?

[thanksamillion] 01/10/2019 10:50

I am no accountant, so corrections welcome.

Interim Accounts appear to show small £90k increase in cash, however Trade and other receivables up by £2m ish.

Is JV retaining the cash for some reason?

[charles clore] 01/10/2019 10:49

JD - could they have found more than expected at Tavsan? I think it might possibly be a good question for the phone-in today.

[soulsauce] 01/10/2019 10:48

8rad the interims suggest cash & equivs of £569k as of June.

[plasybryn] 01/10/2019 10:47

As has been discussed on the excellent LSE thread, Ariana cannot pay dividends to shareholders or indeed buy back shares whilst there is insufficient distributable reserves. However in respect of Buy Backs (not dividends) it could be possible to reduce the share capital by passing the appropriate special resolutions supported by a Court Order. There is also a potential bonus apparently to reducing share capital in this way, if the price paid is less than the average price of shares previously issued, which historically is 1.69p, and the "profit" can be transferred from the share premium account to retained earnings, creating distributable reserves. This is all according to ASH on LSE.
Yes we need them to reinstate the Gantt chart. We learnt over a year ago that Tavsan had slipped but I suspect we will hear more this afternoon. My current understanding is the formal E.I.A. will be finished this year and then submitted to the Authorities for approval. Alongside that the Internal Feasibility Study will be completed, possibly by Xmas this year, as it will be needed to secure the finance. Questions have been submitted on this, so let's see what they say. But please let's all ask for reinstatement of the Gantt chart. We understand if timings are missed if they are outside our control (Permits etc.) but it is the most valuable summary for shareholders of what is going on and when we can expect it to happen.

[soulsauce] 01/10/2019 10:44

No you are not JD, it kind of gets you that way especially when the share price is not reflecting true value.

I have always been of the opinion that they are in no rush to get Tasvan up and running for whatever reason.
I have often taken flack on here for mentioning the slippage but I agree with you 2022, 2023 is quite possible now.
I think with the further drilling at RR and increase in resource there plus Kizilkukur and Irvindi, that may take up the slack but we are years away from getting production up to 50k oz.

May be, depending on what we get in Cyprus, coupled with Salinbas it may fall lower on the pecking order.

[8rad] 01/10/2019 10:41

Yes another good question for today is how much cash do we have on cuurent account right now as we never hear of any figures spoken.

[jaynesdad] 01/10/2019 10:31

Hi Soul, Didn't feel I got much from the interview if I'm honest - the geologists always seem to get excited by any sort of results, but with a business head on we often think 'hmmmm'. I didn't read anything into the Cyprus comment, it was at the end of the interview, seemed positive without implying it would happen next week! The thing that concerns me a bit is Tavsan. The EIA is being done, now further sampling to support production of the feasibility study. But as recently as May '18 the (last ever) Gantt suggested completion of the feasibility study by the end of 2018 and production commencing Jan 2021. What is the timetable now? If feasibility isn't complete until the end of 2020 that implies production may not commence until 2023, repayment of the loan taken to support that will be 2024! Tavsan is predicted to more than double JV production, hence income, hence probably share price The extent of the slippage is worrying - is it because the company is starved of working capital at a time when shareholders are asking for dividends? I'm beginning to think I'm the opposite of Charles, a glass half empty misery!

[xow98] 01/10/2019 10:16

further to my post yesterday:

Per JSE chat

What is perhaps of note is that once the construction loan is repaid, Ariana's share of the JV profits increases to 51% from 50% per the JV shareholder agreement.