Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 12:45

That's it JaynesDad. We've had the long drawn out cycle from a glint in Kerim's eye to a highly efficient, low cost gold mine, but now we are the cusp of much greater things. With more and more to explore & develop (including some great 100% owned assets), to build a second mine (Tavsan) and double production in short order, to be debt free in months, and be a significant generator of free cash. And importantly we are still only valued at just over £20m with a forward P/E ratio that looks very compelling.

[sleveen] 10/8/2019 12:42

When AAU need to transfer money from Turkey to UK, do AAU need authorisation permission from Turkey Govt/central bank etc.

My understanding is that Turkey have exchange controls, is that correct does anyone know?

Genuine question.

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 12:29

Another 10 years of no progress? They have achieved fantastic progress over the past 10 years. And if Kiziltepe/ Tasvan produces profit for AAU of c£10-25m pa as expected at various stages over the next 10 years from a MC of £20m, totally ignoring Salinbas which already has a reserve of 1 million oz with a target of 2.7m..... well if there are better opportunities out there then go for it!

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 12:29

In my opinion we have some real value accretive milestones coming up, which amazingly still aren't in any way priced in.

Have you looked at the Panmure Gordon share price targets for $1500 gold?

But the big ones for me are:-
1. Loan repaid
2. Tavsan work plan to production clarified with tick ups from the EIA, Finance, final permits, commissioning etc. along the way.
3. 8000 m drill programme results from Salinbas.
Etc.

[goldenshare888] 10/8/2019 12:06

Jeez, another 10 years of no progress, no thanks. There are better opportunities out there and that is part of the problem here.

[jaynesdad] 10/8/2019 10:15

We have to trust the BOD re Kizilcukur, they are no fools as we know. The net cash from Kizilcukur if the 50,000oz target is achieved (don't forget 'bonanza' grades have been encountered) is c.£40m at current POG/POS. Twice our current MC. From my perspective if the exploration at Kizilcukur reaches the target then between it and Invindri there is 3 years of production at the existing Kiziltepe plant. It is at AAUs, not Procceas, option to include Kizilcuker in the JV, and there is nothing in the JV agreement covering Invindri. So why don't AAU keep those 2 prospects (and maybe try to pick up a further licence(s) in the area) and acquire the plant from the JV when the other Kiziltepe pits and satellites are exhausted in, say, 10 years? After all when the JV pits are exhausted the Kiziltepe plant is worse than a chocolate teapot as far as Proccea is concerned, not only will it be redundant but will have to be dismantled, removed and the site 'beautified'. Just a thought.

[charles clore] 10/8/2019 10:10

PM bull run has only just started imho

[plasybryn] 10/8/2019 10:00

But hopefully a lot more to come from gold yet.

[goldenshare888] 10/8/2019 09:46

It's another issue here!

:-/

They need to start capitalising on this rising Gold price and do some deals, especially Salinbas!!!

[charles clore] 09/8/2019 22:51

JD - If MDV said it then I wouldn't argue with that. Agree with you though, AAU would appear to be putting in more than 50% of input for an equal share of the proceeds.

[soulsauce] 09/8/2019 16:55

I would think the profits would be worked out in favour of Ariana until the 3x costs were paid.
I am sure they will put some mechanism in place.

[jaynesdad] 09/8/2019 16:32

Careful Charles, you are beginning to sound like me on the subject! This has been discussed at length before. The problem is that it is being sold at 3 x exploration costs into the JV, but AAU owns 50% of the JV. Therefore the net receivable by AAU for relinquishing total control is only 150% of Exploration costs, as MDV confirmed to me once. So effectively AAU only gains a profit of 50% of Exploration cost (net), plus of course half the profit from Kizilcukur going forward. I don't want to say any more because people disagree with me about the incredibly good deal I think Proccea has here so I'm shutting up! In fairness we agree on most other AAU related things :)

[charles clore] 09/8/2019 16:00

But JD - if AAU has already paid the full exploration cost how can that be fair?

[jaynesdad] 09/8/2019 14:21

D1G3Y
One of 2 ways I guess, either the JV pays 3 x the exploration cost from its current balance (maybe $3m though no one has put a definitive figure on it), or Proccea put 1.5 x exploration cost into the JV. Either way the net effect is that both AAU and Proccea will pay 1.5 x exploration cost to AAU.

[d1g3y] 09/8/2019 14:12

Not sure why question mark appeared

[d1g3y] 09/8/2019 14:11

Thanks for the confirmation ?

[charles clore] 09/8/2019 12:20

DIG - AAU, Proccea and Zenit Madencilik are 3 separate entities. AAU and Proccea each own 50% of Zenit Madencilik. AAU has an agreement with Zenit whereby ZM can purchase an AAU asset for 3x exploration costs (as long as AAU agrees). Sounds pretty fair to me.

[plasybryn] 09/8/2019 12:16

M20ASH has prepared this interesting spread sheet of Ariana projections and posted it on LSE where they are debating the numbers. He has Kindly agreed that I can post it here.

You can play around with his numbers as you wish. Hope it opens ok for you.

hxxps://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8sGeqMq033yl2Op0l

[d1g3y] 09/8/2019 11:31

Regarding Kizilcukur project:- during Q3 expected to complete feasibility of transporting ore as part of bulk processing trial. Also will prepare revised mineralisation resource estimate. Which I understand. Ariana has the option to sell the project to Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S. (the operating company for the Kiziltepe Mine) at three times the exploration cost. Can someone explain how this would work?

[d1g3y] 08/8/2019 14:43

Picked up another small chunk today based on potential short term news flow

[plasybryn] 08/8/2019 10:57

A lot of gold shares have benefitted from the bounce in the gold price, including AAZ. There aren't many like AAU that have still gone unnoticed. Still under the radar. If the gold price holds around $1500 our Market Cap. should be over £30m or 3p per share irrespective of what is going on with the developments of our other assets imo.
Next week we will probably get the Quarterlies and the all important Tavsan update could come at anytime. I must admit Kerim said the position on Tavsan would be much clearer before the end of 2019, but I suspect an update isn't now far away. There is also those final Salinbas results to come plus potentially news on the resource at Kiziltepe and the strategic direction for Kizilcukur. So lots of news that could let the coiled spring go at anytime. Fingers crossed. P.S. I would like to see silver break out and for us to start being viewed as a legitimate silver play as well.

[cinoib] 08/8/2019 10:46

Catsick, I was in both in the early years and in the same boat,,, no,,, I don't think so. Sick to AAZ you'll do better.

[plasybryn] 08/8/2019 10:26

That is very interesting catsick. I'm also a holder of AAZ, especially now it is a dividend payer. Who is Kerim in contact with at AAZ? Do you know? How did AAZ come up in discussion with Kerim? Azerbaijan is about 900 miles from Turkey, so not neighbours.
AAZ have a nice RNS out today.

[catsick] 08/8/2019 10:23

I think aau will be another aaz, I have had a decent chunk of aaz from 5p , I think aau can repeat that performance, Kerim seems to know the aaz guys from what he mentioned to me at a presentation abt 6 months ago, they would be a good jv partner on salinbas....