Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[drh3] 06/8/2019 22:14

Where do you get your gold price live feed from? I think the one I use is at least 15-30 min out...

[ironstorm] 06/8/2019 22:02

My view. We are cheap on current production.

Add in Tavsan that makes it doubly so. Would like to see this move faster. But think we are now at the mercy of bureaucracy.

Yes we should also pick up the pace on Salinbas. But I have not seen anything to suggest otherwise.

So overall cheap especially so at this rapidly increasing POG. Keep the faith. Tho please do keep up the pressure.

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 21:56

...and gold at $1486 so not all bad

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 21:52

Hi Soul. If they go it alone with Salinbas it's going to be a very long haul. My preferred option of course is a discovery of HM2 but we cannot assume that will realistically happen. A far better result for myself, and several others here, is to prove a 'core' of quality economically exploitable assets in NE Turkey leading to a JV on attractive terms. As long term shareholders we can then decide to go, to stay, or partially go and partially stay!!

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 21:14

My sentiments exactly.

If I thought the plan for salinbas was to keep plugging away with drilling programmes over many years I would probably sell tomorrow.

I have said I am invested for value from Salinbas. That was always the thing to cause the share price to bag but not prepared to wait for several years.

As JD said there should be some value to be had once the loan is paid and as tavsan approaches but without monetising Salinbas there may be better value elsewhere.

Be nice to know the plan.

[charles clore] 06/8/2019 18:41

JaynesDad6 Aug '19 - 17:02 - 15754 of 15758
Soul, Charles. Agree. I certainly want to exit this share before 2030!

Like swallows said I think I will be dead before 2030 so Kerim if you are reading this, let's get the show on the road asap!

[swallowsflysouth] 06/8/2019 18:36

My problem is i'll be in my grave before Salinbas is in production ! They do need to get a move on and sort out what is there ! My preferred option would be to sell/JV, that would at least happen in my lifetime !

I to would like to know what the strategy is. Cannot understand why we have had no news on Tavsan.

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 18:02

Well not really JD if they follow through with bringing in another asset. That is why I would love to know what the plan is as they can't do both surely.

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 17:30

Catsick, probably disagree on the very last point. A year or so back I did ask Kerim if he thought Proccea may consider extending the W Turkey relationship to the NE. Now I may have misinterpreted his reply (it was a cheeky off the cuff question) but the impression I got was a definite no. I agree that I cannot see an outright sale of Salinbas/Ardala because as it stands that mean AAU ceases at the end of Kiziltepe LOM - at the moment that is pretty much at the same time Tavsan ends?

[catsick] 06/8/2019 17:03

I think they will develop both tasvan and salinbas, they are generating plenty of cashflow and the bank will be happy to replace the debt that has been paid down, the jv model with the construction co is the way forward....

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 17:02

Soul, Charles. Agree. I certainly want to exit this share before 2030! Zack mentioned Salinbas being a 'job for life' (or words to that effect). That is both reassuring and alarming at the same time, depending on the context. I'm not in this just to help provide lifelong careers for the younger members of the AAU team. Its reassuring that the largest shareholder, MDV, is about my age!

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 16:49

Either Charles but I think an outright sale would need a lot more explo than a JV.

[nov31] 06/8/2019 16:47

Gold about to hit $1,475?

[charles clore] 06/8/2019 16:28

By sale or jv

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 15:51

Yes can't see anything wrong with that JD.

Re' salinbas there has to be a plan to monetise it in a much shorter period than a decade.

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 15:12

Agree Soul. My 2 year horizon is realistic, based on scheduled repayment of the first loan (nailed on surely) and Tavsan investment decision and commencement of development.
Provided Tavsan loan repayment commences after the 'new' plant is in production, which I understand is the intention, then from next April we should have net cash (before taxation) of around £10m pa on my current assumed basis ($1450 gold, £450 costs, 25000 oz in JV, £/$ 1.25). The same again in addition once the Tavsan loan is repaid in, say, 3 years? £20m (net but gross of tax) from 2023 or possibly earlier - its quite a compelling but I think a realistic view.
Regarding Salinbas, I just don't know. Its big, but actual production is a decade away. A relevant point was made earlier that its value is relatively low at the moment if measured by the price a 'big boy' would be prepared to pay to enter a JV - after all Eldorado gold more or less gave their interest away. There will have to be much more exploration, much more understanding until a decent deal for a JV can be negotiated. All, as usual, an opinion.

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 14:40

Sonoftherock I hear ya pal.

JD unfortunately at Ariana 2yr views often turn out to be 5yr views.

Would be nice for us to know what the strategy is and if indeed they do have one and not just suck it and see.

To me if they are looking at other projects as they have said on numerous occasions, then they don't have the wherewithal to spend huge amounts of time and money on Salinbas so something would have to give.

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 14:34

No I don't think it's negative it's just that hope was running very high on Salinbas which then became fuelled with some very ill thought out twitter pictures.

Realism has indeed returned and unless the follow up news on Salinbas is anything but very positive then given how long it is going to take to get Salinbas explored to a decent level it will be back to carrying pretty much a null value in the mkt cap and no doubt a poxy value by the broker.

[charles clore] 06/8/2019 14:29

Personally speaking with my holding valued at over £45k, I would be fairly happy to continue with 20-30% p.a. share price growth as this is at worst a reliably safe old plodder. When the company understands the geology better and decides to build a strategically placed pilot mine and take the exploration drilling from there I'd be happy.

[jaynesdad] 06/8/2019 14:10

I don't think people have turned negative, just a little more realistic. I am a long term investor here, and don't expect to be rich tomorrow - I would obviously like to be but its probably not going to happen. Some of you may see me a negative but I'm honestly not. I don't want to sell up and constantly chase the next 'big thing' only to lose my shirt - Aston Martin, Sirius Minerals anyone? Thing will look a bit different when the (first) loan is paid off, net cash is flowing and Tavsan is being developed. Take a 2 year view, that is better than turning on the computer every day, week in week out, hoping for $2000 POG or HM2.

[sonoftherock] 06/8/2019 13:58

Could be possible, soulsauce, but if they're looking at more things being included into one complex / project, then it becomes more difficult to develop anything in isolation. At least that's how an outsider would likely view it. Personally I was a bit surprised that the follow-up drilling isn't happening this year. Don't really understand why they wouldn't bash on with the permitted programme. It's not like it's such a big programme. Some explanations from the company would be good.

[ironstorm] 06/8/2019 13:55

Its all gone very negative on here.

I remain a happy shareholder here.

Just sitting waiting for the next news.

[bigglesbingham] 06/8/2019 13:50

They said they want to analyse info to access where to drill next. The 2000m was to aid the targeting of the main 8000 drill program.

[soulsauce] 06/8/2019 13:07

No excuse not to do it then mcmather.

I thought in one of the recent camera pieces though it alluded to further permissions.

[mcmather] 06/8/2019 13:00

Found it; RNS 14 May 2019:

Ardala Licence
Forestry Permits
Forestry permits enabling up to 10,000m of drilling were granted by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and have now been assigned locally to the operating subsidiary Pontid Madencilik San. ve Tic. Ltd. Site preparation, including road-building for the purposes of the drilling programme is underway. In addition, existing roads have been made ready for further drilling in the trial mining area and the vicinity of the Ardala Porphyry and to enable access for heavy machinery for the purposes of further trial mining.