Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 19:22

Only at Ariana Plasybryn 😏

It would be nice to know exactly what has been done at Tavsan and how long it will take to complete once finance is sorted. At least then we can make our own mental Gantt chart.

If they are waiting for the market to improve (I think I am sensing a theme here) then I don't know how he can be so sure about Q3.
I don't think any of us would be surprised if they were still winding up to production this time next year.

[plasybryn] 01/12/2022 19:03

How can a private investor be given market sensitive news ahead of the market and the many loyal long standing shareholders on LSE and ADVFN.

[plasybryn] 01/12/2022 18:56

Thanks huffster. Much appreciated. Getting at the truth is like getting blood out of a stone with Ariana. Having spoken about Tavsan funding over perhaps a couple of years, and making out it would be easy given how they dealt with Kiziltepe finance, it is, in my view a disgrace that one newish investors gets this important news. What are they like. I agree about Ozaltin. A multi billion pound Co. should be able to fund this. And yes surely we only contribute 23.5%.

[konil] 01/12/2022 18:34

huffster, thanks for bringing this here.

wellsaf, if you see this, thanks for taking the trouble to feedback your findings.

soul, very good questions above. and the point about ozaltin making a loan is absolutely pertinent, after all as a large organisation they probably have cash buffers and they know the quality of the assets here, so why not, its not as though its a freebie, they'll get their money back with interest and a 53% share of a profitable mine. if aau can keep things going then if ozaltin also chip in (and maybe proccea too?) then perhaps if a loan is still required it will be small enough to achieve relatively easily.

also, does anyone know whether there are restrictions in getting this funding done with an offshore loan i.e. not a turkish bank or lending institution? in the uk probably quite easy but turkish politics somewhat different eh?

[sacha17] 01/12/2022 18:26

Wellsaf & karim.....

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 17:53

Thanks for posting huffster.
Well that is very much along the lines of what many of us were thinking.
Maybe if wellsaf had known more about the company he would have thought to ask if all the interested parties were paying their fair share, i.e. Ariana just paying 23.5%
This is where it all gets blurry. It's the same with profits from Kiziltepe and picking up the tab for all the drilling at Tavsan and Kiziltepe.

But once again if markets deteriorte or don't improve what is Plan B.
It would be nice if the company clarified these things instead of shareholders having to guess and make their own minds up.

What is wrong with Ozaltin making a loan for a gold offtake, a similar deal to what GCAT have just done with a French consortium.

[huffster] 01/12/2022 17:42

Someone's (wellsaf) created a whole new thread for just one post. I've copied it and maybe they can respond here

wellsaf 1 Dec '22 - 14:54

I was present at this and spoke separately to both Karim and to the Chairman, Michael De Villiers, afterwards, as well as getting a question in during the Q & A at the end of the presentation. My focal point was Tavsan. At the presentation Karim stated that a finance deal (to borrow all the money that Tavsan needs) has not yet been achieved and that for now this has been put on the back-burner, with Ariana self-financing Tavsan for the time being and returning to the capital markets in early 2023 to see if things have improved. (Clearly it's no secret that the era of cheap money is at an end, to say nothing of the particular difficulties of the Turkish lending market). Some bullet points of information I got out of these discussions are:

-production is still on to commence for Q3 of 2023
-there is no especial slow-down in developing Tavsan even though the bank financing is not in place.

Personally I was concerned earlier in the year as I saw that the financing was not happening, the $50 million that Ariana wanted to borrow. I think it remains the case that money does need to be borrowed, and a finance deal reached as soon as possible. However after yesterday's discussions I see that the situation as is is not all bad.

It is perhaps not a bad thing that AAU have to use their own cash pile to fund Tavsan for the time-being: they are likely to be highly prudent with expenditure. With 50mm in the bank suddenly corporations can become loose with spending, on new plant, 1st class flights, overpaid consultants, whatever. Without it, plant will perhaps be bought 2nd hand, flights taken economy, hiring kept to a minimum. This may mean more profit at the end of it.

I also don't think it's a bad thing if AAU use the profits out of Kiziltepe to fund Tavsan rather than for instance sending that money out to shareholders in dividends in 2023. To me it is better invested in Tavsan.

It's also worth realising that AAU haven't taken a bad deal. They haven't taken a loan on swingeing terms nor given away a chunk of the company for the financing. This reflects the strong position AAU are in. They can wait and still get on with things in the short to mid-term.

It is perhaps also worth saying that the further down the road AAU can get with getting Tavsan up and operational using their own resources before they approach Turkish banks again for financing, the easier that deal-making might get as there will be more knowns and fewer risks.

As for the likely situation of capital markets in Turkey in 2023, I'm not sure that the climate will improve. I think 2023 might perhaps be the most locked-up year of them all. But hey, that's business. Sometimes things just can't happen optimally. At worst we as shareholders will just have to be patient a little longer.

What one has to say to Ariana is, 'congratulations on your new drilling results at Tavsan' - great!

By the way, the mining fair going on next door in the Angel Islington was seeing far more people and far more interest than last year, according to Micheal de Villers. Last year it was dead. This year suddenly people were interested again in junior miners. There was a buzz around the stalls. So that's a big positive.

As for the prospects for AAU share price, we're perhaps not quite out of the woods, but I reckon we've hit bottom, to mix metaphors, and I think there's every chance that by this time next year we'll have a much stronger share price.

[charles clore] 01/12/2022 17:25

Gold back over$1800

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 15:09

But there is nothing to attract new shareholders xow and the management do little to inspire anyone in here.
I wonder how many bothered to attend yesterday or even knew they were next door to M&M.
The news would have to be massive to attract the numbers required to move the share price up significantly.

[wellsaf] 01/12/2022 14:54

I was present at this and spoke separately to both Karim and to the Chairman, Michael De Villiers, afterwards, as well as getting a question in during the Q & A at the end of the presentation. My focal point was Tavsan. At the presentation Karim stated that a finance deal (to borrow all the money that Tavsan needs) has not yet been achieved and that for now this has been put on the back-burner, with Ariana self-financing Tavsan for the time being and returning to the capital markets in early 2023 to see if things have improved. (Clearly it's no secret that the era of cheap money is at an end, to say nothing of the particular difficulties of the Turkish lending market). Some bullet points of information I got out of these discussions are:

-production is still on to commence for Q3 of 2023
-there is no especial slow-down in developing Tavsan even though the bank financing is not in place.

Personally I was concerned earlier in the year as I saw that the financing was not happening, the $50 million that Ariana wanted to borrow. I think it remains the case that money does need to be borrowed, and a finance deal reached as soon as possible. However after yesterday's discussions I see that the situation as is is not all bad.

It is perhaps not a bad thing that AAU have to use their own cash pile to fund Tavsan for the time-being: they are likely to be highly prudent with expenditure. With 50mm in the bank suddenly corporations can become loose with spending, on new plant, 1st class flights, overpaid consultants, whatever. Without it, plant will perhaps be bought 2nd hand, flights taken economy, hiring kept to a minimum. This may mean more profit at the end of it.

I also don't think it's a bad thing if AAU use the profits out of Kiziltepe to fund Tavsan rather than for instance sending that money out to shareholders in dividends in 2023. To me it is better invested in Tavsan.

It's also worth realising that AAU haven't taken a bad deal. They haven't taken a loan on swingeing terms nor given away a chunk of the company for the financing. This reflects the strong position AAU are in. They can wait and still get on with things in the short to mid-term.

It is perhaps also worth saying that the further down the road AAU can get with getting Tavsan up and operational using their own resources before they approach Turkish banks again for financing, the easier that deal-making might get as there will be more knowns and fewer risks.

As for the likely situation of capital markets in Turkey in 2023, I'm not sure that the climate will improve. I think 2023 might perhaps be the most locked-up year of them all. But hey, that's business. Sometimes things just can't happen optimally. At worst we as shareholders will just have to be patient a little longer.

What one has to say to Ariana is, 'congratulations on your new drilling results at Tavsan' - great!

By the way, the mining fair going on next door in the Angel Islington was seeing far more people and far more interest than last year, according to Micheal de Villers. Last year it was dead. This year suddenly people were interested again in junior miners. There was a buzz around the stalls. So that's a big positive.

As for the prospects for AAU share price, we're perhaps not quite out of the woods, but I reckon we've hit bottom, to mix metaphors, and I think there's every chance that by this time next year we'll have a much stronger share price.

[xow98] 01/12/2022 14:47

We aren't attracting new shareholders. It is only existing shareholders, most notably BB, who are increasing their holdings, which drove the price up to 3.5. As soon as we stop buying (as a lot of us are overweight AAU) the price falls back.

No sustained price increase without new shareholders which will only happen with great news. Don't think the price of gold matters for AAU as it lifts all miners, some of whom manage their information disclosure better, have project timelines which enables better visibility for shareholders.

[konil] 01/12/2022 14:42

plasybryn, perhaps the scale of such maps makes any detailed assessment of borders etc. meaningless. just an indication i would guess and i expect ks will know which areas are 'outside' the existing licences or have a way of establishing it.

anyway, its so far off i'm not that bothered with any of leopard currently. even the wtr / asgard stuff is only of minor interest to me currently. sure in time it all may be big stuff but that's yonks away. if some large value accretive progress was made in those areas in the short term and resulted in share price gain then yes thanks i'll have that, but reality suggests its unlikely for...errr...yonks.

much more interested in tavsan progress and hearing about the venus ipo. if salinbas drill results hit the market and caused another uptick that would be good too.

the recent news encouraged me because although true to ks style it wasn't explicitly stated the implication was clear (i hope!) re. tavsan funding - i.e. they were waiting on the mre uplift before pursuing financing. why didn't they just say that all those months ago?

dont know how long it will take to update the dfs (not more than 2 to 3 weeks surely?) but hope to hear about completion of financing by end q1 else surely it would be too late to meet the sept target for start of production?

[actonovator] 01/12/2022 14:29

I presume tomorrow is the last day of the Director buying news embargo? With gold touching 1800 surprised this is so quiet today.

[bigglesbingham] 01/12/2022 14:24

Very good point as I hold 9m on transact. I know all other holders on there.

[thanksamillion] 01/12/2022 13:54

The short term chart is suggesting (to me at any rate)that this is a false pull back (3.3p bid...really?) and another leg up is due shortly.

Gold and commodities continue up, RNS friday anyone?

Goldman Says Buy Commodities, ‘Worry About Recession Later’

[xow98] 01/12/2022 13:49

Gold doing its best to help, $1,790.

[xow98] 01/12/2022 13:46

Gantt chart means accountability, not going to happen

[jaf1948] 01/12/2022 13:45

Apparently I never went !

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 13:42

Good to have you back Jaf.

[kirbs4] 01/12/2022 13:42

100% agree Plas

[jaf1948] 01/12/2022 13:38

Plasybryn,

A perfect summary of where we are.

And when I say 'we', I discovered this morning that I still have 500,000 Ariana shares in an old ISA so I haven't totally sold out after all. Is this an omen ?

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 13:18

14834 👏👏👏👏

[plasybryn] 01/12/2022 13:09

Knoll - your post quote:- "isn't Project Leopard an attempt to make new discoveries? currently 100% aau. i guess ks reckons the area is geologically promising. so not even early stage as yet, just embryonic. conjecture".

I agree with the concept Knoll, but the problem for me is that slide 11 shows "Project Leopard" as a highlighted area which appears to cover the same ground as the existing J.V.projects, namely, Salinbas/Ardale, Derinkoy North, Hizarliyayla.

I want to know how we differentiate what is 100% ours in "Project Leopard" and what is owned 23.5%. It doesn't seem clear to me and as far as I know the Co. has made no attempt to explain this. Am I the only one thinking this is like peering into thick fog?

As for a simply Gantt chart to help Investors see the future value points, I have to agree with Soulsauce that the promise that imminent progress would be made on the Broker front, was another essential investor friendly move which Kerim has kicked into touch. He doesn't want anyone getting close to his plans or thinking, least of all an inquisitive Broker. So Mr Stubborn says NO to a Gantt chart and NO to a more proactive, private investor oriented Broker. Even the other Directors who agreed with the need, appear to have been over-ridden.

This is a Co. which isn't shareholder orientated (hence the unrepresentative share price)and appears, for the time begin at least, that that is how it will remain. You either accept that based on the belief the fundamentals and strategy are sound, or you take your money elsewhere. Otherwise trying to push water up hill becomes very frustrating for all concerned.

[soulsauce] 01/12/2022 12:29

Charles there is more chance of getting a new broker than a Gantt chart 🤔.

Soul would only have a field day if timelines were well late. As we know most things are here, hence no Gantt charts.

Awaits tick down now M&M has finished 😉

[charles clore] 01/12/2022 12:15

I've never known a quality company in the mining and exploration space refuse to publish a gantt chart or at least a timeline of expected progress. I would be very surprised if they didn't have such a process in-house. I guess they don't want to share it with us because it is so easy to criticise when deadlines are not met. Then if that happened soul would have a field day lol