Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kirbs4] 13/7/2020 09:11

Crikey, things escalated quickly here didn't they! At the end of the day we all have our opinion don't we, the JV will be no different and we will all have the same options, if you feel strongly either way and the vote goes against you just sell up and wait to be proved right. Unless you are trying to force people over to your side of the argument there is very little point in reiterating the same thing over and over imo, make your point of course, but respect not everyone will agree and move on.

[pharmoutcomeszzz] 13/7/2020 08:26

Socrates said: ‘when an argument is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser’

[paul280i] 13/7/2020 08:24

He has not even taken into account new estimate for Tavsan that KS gave in one of his interviews a couple of weeks age.

[soulsauce] 13/7/2020 08:20

Thanksamillion it is for the sake of the board that I have filtered him, to stop another endless round of Friday evening on top of all the previous arguments where he keeps bleating about the JV, makes figures up to suit his argument but takes nothing in to account of what Kerim may do with that money when we already know he turned water in to wine with the lithium investment.

[charles clore] 13/7/2020 08:16

Maybe because he bangs his big bass drum almost every day?

[thanksamillion] 13/7/2020 08:05

And this used to be the most easy going of boards, I suggested a few weeks back that it would likely deteriorate as interest in AAU grew. As with Trump, it can only get worse I am afraid.

[pauliewonder] 13/7/2020 07:59

Gold finding a nice home above 1800 and silver now above 19. Very nice levels for gold and silver miners and most likely won't dip below these levels for some time

[jc2706] 13/7/2020 07:24

I am not sure why anyone would filter you. I may not completely agree with your conclusions but your points are always well reasoned and polite.

[temujiin] 12/7/2020 20:06

soulsauce10 Jul '20 - 23:22
Temujiin filtered.
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Incredibly insecure, very intolerant and should I add untrustworthy?

I was having a views exchange with Risa5 if that's ok with you. Why don't you let other decide for themselves if they wish to filter me?

[soulsauce] 12/7/2020 19:53

Lol still trying the same old tactics. Better on the filter guys so you don't have to read the endless regurgitations.

risa5 it was JV'd some time ago and about $8m spent on it. The partner gave it up as it did not fit in to their plans after receiving it from a company they took over.
Now I am sure Kerim has planned all sorts of scenarios where Salinbas can be developed without sucking the life and profits out of Ariana and this one seems excellent, not only linking up with a big partner but one with deep pockets and knows the area.

[temujiin] 12/7/2020 19:48

The problem with your case is that you are confusing the price of gold that is in the ground with the price of gold that is processed into a gold bar.
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Hi Risa5,

re the above, unless AAU are going to buy gold bars with that $25m, then we have to assume they will use it to buy into 'gold in the ground', either another producer/explorer, or use it to explore in Cyprus/Salinbas.

If it's for exploration then we are swapping a relatively known return, for an unknown exploration campaign which may or may not return more than what we would get at current POG.

Regarding what Kerim can do with $25m now, I would point out it's not a case of $25m now or nothing. Kerim will have under current arrangements a steady flow of $millions every year, although admittedly the JV does bring forward a large wedge of this income.

AFAIK in the 4 years I've been in AAu they've not tried to sell Salinbas.

[risa5] 12/7/2020 19:11

Temujiin. The problem with your case is that you are confusing the price of gold that is in the ground with the price of gold that is processed into a gold bar. The price of gold that is in the ground is considerably less as you can assume from the link below.

You also have to appreciate that $25m now, how much will worth in 6-8 years time. I am sure you will get a different result if you included that in your calculation. That's not including what Kerim will do with that money during that 8 years.

I believe Ariana tried to sell Salinbas a few years ago but nobody wanted to buy, If this deal does not happen Salinbas may never be developed by Ariana, Also all of the profits from the current operations may have to be ploughed back in and we may not see any dividend for many years and inevitably the share price will go nowhere fast.

I still believe Kerim has made a very smart move.

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Based on 253 gold deposits acquired from 1990-2013, Cipher calculated a median benchmark value for an ounce of gold in the ground at about $40 and established that 80% of the ounces were valued at less than $90

[temujiin] 12/7/2020 15:51

Dividend policy one off with regs after two years, squeezed KS into saying tarsvan LOM 6-8 years and kiziltepe 7
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Thanks for the above BB.
This isn't a de-ramp or ramp, it's just best estimate maths for those interested in figures.
So for the RR part of the deal

LOM Tasvan 6-8 yrs ---- say at 20k oz / year
LOM Kiziltepe 7 yrs ---- say at 30k oz / year

So average 7 years of 50k oz /year (25k to AAU atm)
AISC say $650, POG $1750

1700-650 = $1,050 x 25,000 (oz) x 7 (yrs) = $183.75m
minus AAU's share of Tasvan mine costs $10m = $173.75m gross profit

Not sure of what net profit would be so will 'estimate' and remove 20%

$173.75 - 20% = $139m NET profit over 7 years, or $20m a year

After the proposed JV our take will go down by $10.6m, to $9.4m a year.
So the JV costs SH's over 7 years $74.2m (10.6 x 7). Ozaltin are paying $25m for this.
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On the Salinbas part of the deal AAU are basically selling 76.5% for $5m cash and approx $15m of Salinbas development spending and Ozaltin bring in the financial and construction muscle.

Ozaltin value AAU at 5.6p per share. I believe we are worth more than that but which ever way the deal goes down, on the best guess maths AAU is under valued at 4p.

[rumpus1] 11/7/2020 19:29

Mad Foetus - the podcasts from Palisade are free on Youtube. For some reason, TW posts them as though they are content supplied by ShareProphets. I have no idea if he licenses them or if he uses them as filler but I get the impression that he doesn't have a lot to do with Palisade. PR has a pretty wide variety of interviewees who are mostly massive gold bulls and some on the loon side of gold/precious metals optimism. Very occasionally they'll find a bear for a bit of balance. Although they do have some very interesting commentary, they also have some publicity seekers who will pick any number out of a hat/opinion and tout it. (IMHO).

[jc2706] 11/7/2020 10:48

The only issue with TW (actually there are a lot but the only relevant one) is that his stock picking is traditionally not that great.

In terms of the deal, it is not great but it is pretty good. It values the asset at a reasonable level without being 'stellar'. Most investors at this end of the market tend to grossly miss value the assets either positively (see GGP and I would add EUA now as well - both overvalue their assets) or negatively. I think this deal is probably about right given the debate. I would have liked to have seen more for Salinbas but it has not (yet?) been proven as a Hot Maden type asset.

It should also be borne in mind that we are not yet in the mania phase for gold so asset purchases are not yet hitting silly levels. The flipside being that KS now has a war chest to develop something that can be bought for silly money or be set up for the next mania metal.

[mad foetus] 11/7/2020 08:42

I love the summaries of the TW podcasts:Episode 4: why you MUST be in goldEpisode 5: why Gold is NOT going to soarAnyway, all good publicity. Anyone care to summarise?I feel there's a couple of things we need. The first is for the price of gold to stabilise. There just seems reluctance on the part of many investors to accept that gold is at 1800. A few weeks around this level would be helpful.But most importantly, a full, state of the company update, setting out what the plans are. It may have to wait until the results and JV is done and dusted. But I think the delayed results will also stop a few investors buying in: its never a good look

[lottsgold] 11/7/2020 08:34

Thanks for posting the TW interview guys. Definitely worth a listen. Still see me holding these for a few years, exciting times ahead. Looking forward to Salinbas update!

[soulsauce] 11/7/2020 08:18

Cheers bigglesbingham and Renniks.

[renniks2016] 11/7/2020 07:12

https://www.shareprophets.com/shareshow/viewer-006.phpTW summary says about as much as you need to know, way undervalued.With regards to the debate over deal pros and cons, anyone thinking that's it is not in SHs best interest are want to be share holders trying to accumulate as low as possible, once ratified double digits will follow, that along with one off dividend and future policy put in place, is imho very much in share holders interest !

[bigglesbingham] 10/7/2020 23:38

See comments in previous post

[bigglesbingham] 10/7/2020 23:37

Just listened to the share prophets interview and a lot more penetrating than the usual interviews. TW got over the points re £25m cash and market cap £40m in a way that said Christ how undervalued are you without actually saying it. Dividend policy one off with regs after two years, squeezed KS into saying tarsvan LOM 6-8 years and kiziltepe 7 more years. As to what KS is going to do with residual money he basically said in a polite way : look at what we've done with an oily rag now what do you think we can do with £25m. The only negative is he didn't mention Procceas contribution in return for 23.5% salinbas . I've asked them directly that Proccea will be contributing similar amount to ozaltin be it services or cash and they confirmed yes. Excellent interview which was more a chat than staged questions.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 23:22

Temujiin filtered.

[temujiin] 10/7/2020 23:13

You said it Temujiin. Speculate.
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Be honest Soulsauce, you have absolutely zero issues when loads of people speculate how wonderful the JV might be, but zero tolerance if one person speculates how AAU might be better off without the JV.

You demonstrate a closed intolerant mind, and regrettably add little new to debates. Goodnight.

[8rad] 10/7/2020 23:09

Tem/ Soul....just play some music.eg Let the good times roll.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 23:01

You said it Temujiin. Speculate. Any eejit can throw numbers about but without all the information and insight in to the future, which you don't have, then all you are doing is speculating and going round in circles while maintaining you know more about what is best for shareholders than Kerim,
Laughable.