Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 10/7/2020 23:13

You said it Temujiin. Speculate.
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Be honest Soulsauce, you have absolutely zero issues when loads of people speculate how wonderful the JV might be, but zero tolerance if one person speculates how AAU might be better off without the JV.

You demonstrate a closed intolerant mind, and regrettably add little new to debates. Goodnight.

[8rad] 10/7/2020 23:09

Tem/ Soul....just play some music.eg Let the good times roll.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 23:01

You said it Temujiin. Speculate. Any eejit can throw numbers about but without all the information and insight in to the future, which you don't have, then all you are doing is speculating and going round in circles while maintaining you know more about what is best for shareholders than Kerim,
Laughable.

[temujiin] 10/7/2020 22:49

Soulsauce, I sound nothing like you did 3 years ago as I'm putting a different view that at least a few on here, have expressed is of interest to them, even if not all agree. You earlier, were literally just shouting at maths!

Why don't you do something constructive for the BB, other that telling everyone you agree with what 'a great blog they've just posted'? Perhaps speculate with research on what AAU's net profit would be with 50k oz, or estimate what an underground operation at RR would cost? I'd be interested in thoughts on that.
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BB, fair point re repayment of Tasvan loan although the mine is expected to be IRO $20m for the JV partnership, $10m for AAU, so could be paid off within a year.

AAU could allocate to Salinbas exploration (obv whatever they want) but say $2-3m every year, which would be a decent drill campaign, and still have (estimate) approx $5-6m left over for other activities including Cyprus. I agree the prospect of Ozaltin to 'speed up process with potential of blue sky finds' is attractive for Salinbas and one of the benefits of the the JV proposal.

[bigglesbingham] 10/7/2020 22:00

Must admit soul you have mellowed over the years ha ha

[bigglesbingham] 10/7/2020 21:51

Take your points but the $28m you refer to will be later than two year because they would have to repay the debt on tarsvan and I see tarsvan completed mine 2years min. A this is where the issues lie in the timescale. In the meantime I'd argue most of the profit would be used up exploring their existing assets particularly salinbas. So to me it's simple : speed up process with potential of blue sky finds quicker to compensate for giving up the proportion of assets or a longer term view where the value of the assets with be larger due to the fact we own more of them but could be five years plus to get some real traction in share price one word sums it up timescale. Mine is obviously shorter that yours. I'd argue that the nature of investors on aim dictates a shorter timescale. Posters on here were discussing two months was an issue and contemplating selling and coming back in eight weeks.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 21:48

Temujiin do yourself a favour. You sound like I did 3yrs ago on here like a dog with a bone and coming across a real moron. I now realise how I must have sounded back then and apologise for that.
Insecure is something I am not with this share but I suggest with the effort you keep putting in to try to sway shareholders to your way of thinking is showing a level of insecurity or madness.
Isn't that the definition of madness, doing something over and over and expecting a different outcome.

[temujiin] 10/7/2020 21:30

Soulsauce, why don't YOU do some work, add some figures and maths instead of being the self appointed AAU attack dog for anything that goes against your messiah worshiping attitude for AAU?

The maths is sound as far as I know and shows that there is a solid profitable alternative to the JV proposal and that Ozaltin value AAU at approx 5.6p. FFS chill out! You appear very insecure every time I post something, it's like I'm living in your head rent free.
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BB, I stand by the maths unless anyone can point out mistakes, approx $28.75m gross profit per year from approx 2022 onwards.

Kerim will have plans for $25m (assuming he uses $5m as a one off divi). It's difficult to quantify how much value Kerim can do with $25m but clearly it wont be wasted. That said, one could argue how much more could Kerim do with $28.75m gross profit every year! Be happy for someone (Soulsauce if you've stopped ranting??) to try and crunch that down to a net profit.

Salinbas will certainly be greatly accelerated with Ozaltin's help and the $15m ear-marked will more than scratch the surface. That said Salinbas will need a few $10's of millions more and a good few years before it goes into production. Along that journey to that production, one would hope/expect it's value to be reflected in the share price

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 21:20

Be nice to get a listen to that Plasybryn if we can. Thanks.

[bigglesbingham] 10/7/2020 20:57

Very simplistic but in two years the clout of the new JV partner may have exploited the salinbas region which could have an exponential effect on AAU shareprice. The £25m May be used to exploit Cyprus which could have tremendous effect on shareprice within two years (look at CHF 350% increase in last month with two small strikes). Point is you are not building in the benefits of the partner or cash.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 20:53

Yep add in the costs for ongoing opex and capex for upgrading the processing plant and constructing an underground adit at RR and how much we would be chucking at Salinbas each year and try again, and also add a coefficient of slowness for Salinbas taking x number of years longer.

Then add in what Ariana might be making elsewhere. 'Oh I can't' you say. No because you are continuing to argue the currently unarguable because you don't have enough information FFS!!

And while you are at it add a value that linking up with a company like Ozaltin brings with regard to it's size, connections, knowledge of the area and having the plant, machinery and wherewithal to cut it in Turkey.

[temujiin] 10/7/2020 20:20

The maths.

Ozaltin have offered to pay $25m for RR and together with Proccea approx $15m for Salinbas and will own 53%

AAU will reduce from 51% of RR and 100% of Salinbas to 23.5% of both

53% of 1.06B shares is 562m

$40m (25 + 15) / shares 562m = $0.0712 / share or 5.6p per AAU Share

As a going rate 5.6p per share is a reasonable value for AAU shares going by Ozaltin's valuation.


In two years as things stand without the JV, AAU/Proccea could be doing 50k oz per year, 25k to AAU

25k x 1150 (1800-AISC 650) = $28.75m gross profit or approx 5cents (3.9p) per share gross profit....per year!

Anyone disagree with the maths as I'm happy to be corrected?!

[backmarker] 10/7/2020 18:56

meantime, the PoG is moving up, which can only help whichever direction AAU moves in.

I just wish I had some free cash to buy a few more shares here.

the current share price movement (or lack of) seems a bit surprising, but for me the question is not IF but WHEN it moves up to 5p.

certainly 6p by Xmas, even after the divi.

[soulsauce] 10/7/2020 18:54

Very well reasoned post backmarker.

[backmarker] 10/7/2020 18:49

I have to confess all this debate, much of it uninformed as far as I can tell, is getting boring.

KS thinks the deal is good, and clearly there are benefits to AAU. but I think there is more information yet to come out to support going ahead, because on the face of it the deal looks an expensive one.

until the full deal is actually presented to SHs with all KS's supporting arguments then the debate is going round in circles.

my view is and has been:

AAU is a great company as it stands;

the JV has the potential to make AAU an even greater company.

the big unknown factor is: what does KS have up his sleeve or in his back pocket ?

is it that the upfront cash is the key reason for KS liking the deal, because he can fund Cyprus, or buy some other asset we as yet know nothing about.

or is it that KS doesn't want to spend time and effort developing Salinbas himself, when he could be (usefully, we hope) doing "other things".

we don't know.

at the end of the day we are backing KS and his track record. he wants the deal. hopefully we'll get some more insight into exactly why.

[pauliewonder] 10/7/2020 15:38

Another top up for me at 3.9p. Couldn't resist it at below 4p. Once we break that, I think it will act as support going forward

[konil] 10/7/2020 12:35

cheers plas. sitting tight for the time being.

[plasybryn] 10/7/2020 11:55

As with all these things, news could break any time. I agree it has been a bit frustrating of late but I'm expecting (hoping for) developments this month.

[plasybryn] 10/7/2020 11:54

knoll: I would expect so. We will need time to see all the details so we can vote based on a proper detailed understanding.

[konil] 10/7/2020 11:49

thanks plas, that's useful - gives me a roadmap idea of things to come.

will aau issue more info on the terms of jv prior to the shareholder vote in august (or whenever it is)?

[claretandbluedave] 10/7/2020 11:38

Have to agree with your post Konil. I also think AAU missing out where other miners are making gains. I think this may drift back a bit as news will be slow to come through, then back up to 4.5 or slightly more on news of the deal, I've added slowly but see gains elsewhere so think I'm missing out on profits. Grrr!!

[plasybryn] 10/7/2020 11:38

knoll: With Tavsan our second mine circa 18 months from production, I'm expecting plenty of news as that progresses. Feasibility study, E.I.A., Land acquisitions, Forestry permits, Financial Bank loan discussions could all happen before Christmas.
There will be a virtual shareholder meeting to ratify the Deal, hopefully during August.
A.R. & A. later this month perhaps followed by a virtual AGM in August.
Kiziltepe Quarterly in August
Cyprus progress report in H2
Exploration & Development drilling programme results around Arzu South (U/G deep extensions) & Geotechnical drilling to get U/G resource assessment leading to an U/G mine plan at Kiziltepe.

So a fair bit going on not to mention Ivrindi & Kizilcukur news later in the year.

[sonoftherock] 10/7/2020 11:14

Thanks Plas. Very useful background info.

[konil] 10/7/2020 11:11

with the recent rns announcement on mou status, what other drivers are there for the share price in the near term (ignoring the obvious rise in the gp)?

i can't decide whether to add, reduce (and come back later) of just sit on my hands!

i'm not a trader, so normally would just sit tight, but aau seem to be missing out and other miners edging up with the increasing gp. are we in for a 'slow period' until mou fully signed off?

thanks for any info.