Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 18/12/2019 16:24

In the MOU it stated $8m would be injected into the project to give them 53%. There will also be input by procea although exact extent and form needs to be clarified (I explicitly asked this question to kerim and michael and was assured contribution will be made by procea). So say $6.5 m procea in cash equivalent $8 from new partner gives $14.5m towards exploration development of salinbas. Therefore monies will still need to be obtained for the project if cap ex $53 m . I expect this to be funded primarily through debt finance raised by new partner. However there would be a possibility of some monies having to be contributed by JV partners (say a 80% loan to value deal) I believe this may be what is being referred to in the report. I personally would hope it's all debt financed.

[thanksamillion] 18/12/2019 16:12

Plasybryn, we do get to share $50m, bird in the hand etc.

Carcosa, convertables usually sold in blocks ie £40k, though AAU may opt for lower value.

[plasybryn] 18/12/2019 16:00

Yes and it doesn't say anything about us diluting our stake in Red Rabbit to 23.5%. Given the report is pretty thorough, is this an error or a hint at a change of heart? Some I think might welcome that; that is just going for the tri-parite JV to develop Salinbas into a producing mine and keeping our 2 party JV for Red Rabbit. Then we keep 50% of our ever increasing profits from Kiziltepe and soon to be Tavsan.

[soulsauce] 18/12/2019 15:56

Second ball mill?

Surely they are on about our share of capes for Salinbas plant.

[mcmather] 18/12/2019 15:51

Another interesting line from the next page:

"...the company already benefits from a steady revenue stream in the form of its Red Rabbit JV in West Turkey. This partnership, which Ariana holds with Proccea Construction, encompasses the producing Kiziltepe mine, which generated £3m in net profit over H1 2019 alone and is also set for expansion".

[carcosa] 18/12/2019 15:51

"Should this stellar internal funding source (Red Rabbit) not cover the entirety of Ariana’s work at Salinbas, then Sener tells us the firm would still be more likely to
pursue convertible debt financing than reach out to investors for cash."

Well I hope Retail Investors get a chance to participate in that debt financing; but the likelihood of that is somewhere between nil and zero, I suspect.

[mcmather] 18/12/2019 15:50

Not sure what they mean; the previous page says:

"As part of November’s agreement, the proposed partner is expected to inject capital towards additional drilling and resource estimation and the delivery of a definitive feasibility study. It will also fund the completion of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), permitting, freehold land acquisition, public relations, and new licences."

Whilst once the JV is incorporated, AAU only get 3 X times the discovery cost of NEW resources outside those already within the (edit) JV.

[thanksamillion] 18/12/2019 15:23

Suspect it is referring to exploration costs, which may be recovered (3 times) on any gold/silver discoveries.

[red imp] 18/12/2019 15:15

Page 15 is interesting:

"Sener is also confident in Ariana’s ability to continue funding its share of any costs at Salinbas".

So what happened to the free carry specifically mentioned in the 25th November RNS?

[mcmather] 18/12/2019 15:01

Cheers plas.

[plasybryn] 18/12/2019 13:49

Have you seen this on Twitter from Mining Maven?REPORT: Ariana Resources- Transforming Salinbas into Turkey's next major gold mineWith Ariana potentially entering a major Salinbas JV, we've taken a deep dive into the project to see what this could mean for investors.tinyurl.com/skvkpwq

[plasybryn] 18/12/2019 11:34

Q4 & FULL YEAR 2019 PRELIMINARY PRODUCTION RESULTS should be out around 14th January based on last year. They should be good.

[bigglesbingham] 17/12/2019 20:29

Meant to say doesn't have associated volatility drrrrrr must be losing plot

[bigglesbingham] 17/12/2019 17:11

Because I'm in for long term I'd rather consistently good news flow building up the fundamentals than a really volatile shareprice based on momentum and speculation. I firmly believe fundamentals will result in a significantly higher shareprice which does have associated volatility.

[charles clore] 17/12/2019 16:06

Good news, sell, rinse and repeat. You couldn't make it up!

[plasybryn] 17/12/2019 16:04

Probably right Paul. We can but hope that logic at some point comes to the fore.

[paul280i] 17/12/2019 15:51

Plasybryn, "you can only imagine how the market will receive this very positive and reassuring news."
If anything like the normal day they will make the shares down!

[plasybryn] 17/12/2019 14:02

Thanks. That is helpful & interesting.

[sonoftherock] 17/12/2019 13:22

In my understanding, a reserve figure has to have an associated mine plan. So a change in the resource estimate could feed through into a change in reserves, but only after revising the mine plan, which is a further step in the process.

[plasybryn] 17/12/2019 11:10

Well it could be 25000 ozs from Kiziltepe, 30000 ozs from Tavsan and 50000 ozs from Salinbas totalling 105000 ozs. But then you could add in an underground mine at Arzu South and North plus other production from the Hot Gold Corridor and then you must be looking at over 150000 ozs p.a. which would indeed put us amongst the big boys.

[plasybryn] 17/12/2019 11:07

I think it is the Resource (Reserve) statement and the extended Life of Mine (LofM) release that is going to excite the market in Q1 -2020. Originally this was planned for year end but they have completed a heck of a lot of drilling in Arzu South, Arzu North, Derya etc. So with lots of results to be analysed and constructed into a new Resource we will have to wait a bit longer. But not that long. All the results are now in. If this achieves the aim of taking the Life of Mine out to 10 years from now, you can only imagine how the market will receive this very positive and reassuring news.

[plasybryn] 17/12/2019 10:58

Could any technical person tell me why this will only lead to a revised "resource estimate" and not a new "Reserve" as well?

[catsick] 17/12/2019 10:42

Proccea are also going to be getting a lump of cash for selling down the existing jv , that will give them plenty of cash to buy into salinbas at the same valuation as the new investor, so dont assume they are getting a free carry ...

[coachsailor] 17/12/2019 10:41

Whether it is the mystery buyer or the existing shareholders that stand to gain most, either way it is still stonking good value at the present price,
I believe the reason there is so little trading is the massive spread the market makers are currently offering. Just tried for 20000 and was offered 2.137 to sell and 2.298 to buy - a spread of 7.7%.
I bought another 200000 earlier this morning when the theoretical spread first dropped to 2.1/2.3.

[doinnuthing] 17/12/2019 10:38

Hi all my first post but a very long term investor - my first purchase was at 9.5p I will let you work out how long ago that was!
My main question re the MoU is what capital Proccea will be putting in to earn their proportion of Salinbas?
Secondly at what point will the Non Red Rabbit parts in Turkey be sold in to the company at the appropriate multiplier. This appears unvalued in our current share price (roughly equivalent to the cash being received) so hopefully that will be reflected as well. It will be interesting to see when we get the details of the deal whether this has been completed - valued in as an extra. The exploration costs are known.
Additionally can someone give their understanding: at Kizilcukur we are mining but need to truck for processing to the RR facility. If it comes into the JV we get the multiplier on exploration costs but nothing for the mining & road construction so hopefully that will be recompensed somehow or this money is lost?