Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 09/6/2019 16:31

25m is shared between AAU and procea. 2021 with tarsvan the profit will be of that order.

[bigglesbingham] 09/6/2019 16:26

I'm not saying it wouldn't be worth more. Quite the contrary but if someone came in offering 4p a share (40m market cap) I can see them getting the company on the cheap!!

[drh3] 09/6/2019 14:23

However, with the cash they will be making from next year they may even choose buy an existing asset close to production and accelerate things....

[thanksamillion] 09/6/2019 12:23

Thanks for that JC, I'm starting to grasp the reasoning now.

[charles clore] 09/6/2019 11:09

JC - like a Panmure Gordon note for example?

[soulsauce] 09/6/2019 11:08

deanmat whilst I agree with much of your post there is no chance of production from Salinbas in the next few years.
One only needs to look at Tasvan for how long it takes from drilling to permitting to production.

The best hope for the next few years is that we drill as much as we can, find plenty of resource and then try to monetize at least some of it by way of a sale or JV.

[jc2706] 09/6/2019 10:50

Historically the value of gold in the ground has indeed been dependent on whether it is inferred, indicated or measured with an indicative value for each. However, I think that there is evidence to suggest that it is much more complicated than that, dependent on the nature of the deposit although the one thing that is clear these days is that there is very little value attributed to inferred resources.

The value of significant deposits is often ignored. Look at Altyn - it has a 5m oz deposit, is producing and has a market cap of £9m. There are various reasons for this but it is indicative that value often requires a triggering event to be realised.

[thanksamillion] 09/6/2019 10:29

Thanks for the response guys, but why so low, if I had a choice between $30 quick sale or say $600 after costs to produce the gold myself it would appear to be a no brainer to produce it myself. Now clearly I am missing something fundamental here so what is it.

[deanmatlazin] 09/6/2019 02:23

I can see this share will be a 5 bagger in 2 years time. No doubt about it $25m profit every year from end of next year for next 8 years and Salinbas hopefully will get into production in next few years....this is a no brainer. Looking back at AAZ....I was hesitant to buy when it was 5p/share 3 years ago. Now it is £1/share...a nice 20 bagger!! Hope AAU will do the same in 4-5 years time.

[swallowsflysouth] 08/6/2019 20:10

From memory were marl paid $100 per oz for high grade ? Also from memory i think Kerim said around $35 a oz is average for Turkey.

I'm assuming a sort of average is depending on a whole host of different things such as ease of access, political risk etc, but say
• US$20 per ounce Inferred
• US$30 per ounce for measured and indicated
• US$160 per ounce for proven and probable

[plasybryn] 08/6/2019 20:01

I thinks gold in the ground is normally valued at just $15 per oz, but might be wrong.

[thanksamillion] 08/6/2019 19:45

Never quite managed to get my head around why buying gold in the ground is around $30 per oz when we (and by that I mean the JV) are currently making almost 20x that (after costs) by producing the ingots ourselves. Can anyone explain.

[swallowsflysouth] 08/6/2019 18:52

Biggles, surely 3m ozs even low grade would be worth a bit more ? At $30 per oz that would be $90m

[plasybryn] 08/6/2019 18:44

The fixed rate of interest is a very competitive circa 7.5%. The loan repayments correspond to when the advance was taken and will therefore run off all as planned. 90% clear by end of year and the last 10% running up to Easter I believe. Then we are really in the money!

[bigglesbingham] 08/6/2019 17:15

I think they would be looking for a sale. Cap ex at salinbas is in excess of £50m , with tarsvan and there other excellent opportunities a sale of salinbas would set the company up nicely. Probably pay a one off dividend too. Being realistic we're going to get taken out, the question is at what price?? The reason I say that is buying companies is the cheapest way the big boys increase their ounces in the ground. The cost of buying a company out will always be less than the cost of exploration from scratch and this theory is always spouted from the big boys. Take our market cap for our assets and potential profit. It's a no brainer for someone to offer £30-40m !!! Just my opinion but we will see.

[loafofbread] 08/6/2019 17:13

Paying off the loan can't come soon enough imho as we are paying 19.5% PA on it!

[bigglesbingham] 08/6/2019 17:08

I think exceptional results will make the market take notice personally . Primarily been done before with mariana. But it's a waiting game . I'm hopeful of a dividend from the JV , the only thing preventing that would be they are waiting on the kizilcuker deal to be formalised.

[bigglesbingham] 08/6/2019 17:05

1 million is neither here nor there in difficult terrain which salinbas is. However 3m means totally different proposition. Hot madden they had to relocate a village and redirect a bloody river to access. ! Having said that it was 9.2 million tonnes for 3.87m ounces gold at 13g/t equivalent!!!!

[charles clore] 08/6/2019 13:24

CSSF - it seems to me the current market with its almost 100% retrogressive approach will only pay attention when the project gets a takeover bid or is mined, whichever comes first.

[crossfirecssf] 08/6/2019 12:31

Thanks Biggles, I’m wondering what their strategy is regarding Salinbas. JV, sale, or other. It’s puzzling that there appears to be little, if no value attributable to Salinbas in the current sp, and that’s with a 1moz resource.

Even at a paltry $10 per oz in the ground that would be $10m. I guess I’m wondering, if the market can completely ignore a 1moz resource, then what’s to stop it completely ignoring a $2.75moz resource? At what point does the market have to pay attention?

[bigglesbingham] 08/6/2019 11:50

Another point I forgot to highlight was loan is 70% repaid. 90% buy the end of year. So 20% or $6.6 m in next six months. So it they do 14000 ounces in next six months that $14m profit!! So another dividend payment should be forthcoming . This assumes all first six months income has been used for debt repayment which is unlikely. Therefore I'm expecting and rns re dividend payment (from joint venture to AAU) over the short term. This will come in very handy as a boast to share price. If $3m I'd expect 10-15% increase in share price.

[bigglesbingham] 08/6/2019 11:19

Your correct much more susbstantial hence his comments further exploration warranted. Min extra two years life is very positive and warranted a higher share price rise. This will be significant when when AAU are paying dividends because dividend stream will be longer. However unfortunately many investors don't look 5+ years into the future.

[bigglesbingham] 07/6/2019 21:50

I believe minimum 10000-15000 m but never know may strike lucky in determining future targets