m_night102 Dec '24 - 18:33 - 34665 of 34782
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ARB I suspect will go to 20-30p from here with BTC holding $90,000 plus.
Once $100,000 plus BTC comes then ARB goes ballasitic and 30-50p share price
This can be any day now.
2025 BTC will likely see $200,000. ARB share price = £1/100p plus in this scenario.
By 2030 BTC $1,000,0000+ ARB share price = £10 plus in this scenario.
I see this as a fantastic investment at 6-7p a share. |
 munin, I fear that there are many who would give their eye teeth to have come out of this debacle as wel as you have. Some will have suffered losses they really cannot afford.
Quite a number of formerly active 'handles' have disappeared altogether from these boards, and not I fear to devote their time to enjoying their profits.
It was the same with a number of precious metal mining stocks which fell prey to jurisdictional risks and anti-Russian sanctions. I expect there are many other examples too where PIs have succumbed to FOMO, and convinced themselves that they could see value where the rest of the market could not. There were a number of names (no longer to be seen) on the company BBs who saw those stocks as one way bets and claimed to be 'all in'. I fear they probably were.
ARB is an object lesson. While a few posters were flagging up its weak balance sheet and questioning how it could possibly afford to roll out the Texas facility, warning that it needed a strong FD and a management with its eyes focused on the nuts and bolts rather than on the stars to carry visionary opportunity to commercial fruition, many others were churning out 'valuations' ignoring Capex requirements, showing huge pospective profits, and 'proving' that ARB's market cap 'ought' to be north of £1bn.
We all need to remind ourselves that there is much to be said for being content to get e=rich slowly. It sure beats shooting for the moon and ending up getting poor fast. |
And while £50k might seem like a paltry amount to some, to me it would mean a new motor car, or an additional £2k+ pa to my retirement income. |
Very sad indeed.
I got rid of my remaining lot for only 5.3p
Overall, for a small investment of £3.5k, managed to make a profit of just over £20k……….but it could have been so much more…………could easily have sold on the way down to add another £30-50k profit……..but I’m afraid greed overcame fear in a big way……230;
No one to blame, but myself. |
Have a look at ARB's RNS today.
It is upbeat, but actually records the completion of the burial of the second of the two elements which briefly lifted ARB to the heights -
the remaining 'revolutionary' liquid immersion cooled rigs are to be converted to air cooling,
having already been removed from 'the state of the art' centre ARB built in Texas.
Many of ARB's rigs, factory fresh and still in the unopened boxes in which they were delivered, together with the Texas facility itself were of course disposed of in a fire sale a while back, for a tiny fraction of what they had cost.
All very sad. |
1k, "Back up the truck": that made me laugh out loud:Accompanied by:Beep, beep, beep, "This stock is reversing" beep, beep, beep, .... |
uppompeii, no one ever went bust taking a profit. Quite a lot who don't, do.
Are any of those who assured us of the inevitability of ARB attaining a billion dollar market cap, and urged everyone to go 'all in' still solvent?
SufferNoFools has presumably cut out the fine wines he used to boast of drinking. When you are driving a van for a living you can't afford to take any risk of losing your driving licence. His fate adds a whole new meaning to his advice to 'back up the truck'. |
Check out the BLM rating on this now, they have a short rating down to 4989p !!! |
I also sold on the way up and missed a lot of further gain. I did ok on it though, but not a fortune, just one of those that I got a break on. The £2.30 or so sales were the last I held so that was luck. Just surprised to see it down here at this level. |
ARB has never mined BTC - they were mining BTC Equivalents and then swapping them back to BTC when they could.
I have never owned or helD ARB ever..
I did warn.!
BWTFDIK |
If anyone feels that ARB's days are numbered and the opportunity to lose money on ARB is therefore coming to an end, I see that Mode Global Holdings (suspended in 2023) is now out of suspension, so there are probably more losses to be made there now. For those who 'invest' in sucker stocks, why confine yourselves to ARB when you now buy Mode as well, and have two.
For over a year before it was suspended I warned punters to cut their losses and get out of MODE (for much of that time, and subsequently, I was saying the the same about ARB. I sold the last few of my ARB at a bit over 12). The Mode mugz called me troll, loaded my posts with downticks, continued to buy, and had lost about 90% of their money by suspension. I guess they are now happily buying yet more Mode shares to 'average down'.
Initially, ARB had a USP. With competent management, and a roll out plan for Texas which was within its financial means (probably a joint venture) ARB could have done very well. In the event, it raised and blew millions, with nothing to show for the money and now looks set to go into insolvent liquidation. A question of 'when' rather than 'if'.
Moonshots are risky. Even the promising ones generally fail in the end. In the aggregate, most investors in penny shares and moonshots lose more than they make.
As I see it, the name of he game is to buy the rumour and sell the news. Be content to take a modest profit, selling before the market wakes up to the time and cost of commercialising the concept, the company fails to raise the necessary capital, or you are diluted to next to nothing. There are mighty few free lunches.
I feel for those who rode ARB all the way to the top, failed to sell and take a damn good profit (or at least to sell enough to take a modest profit and continue with a smaller, free ride, holding) and then rose it down again until they were in loss. As for those who succumbed to FOMO and bought at the top, they have really been skinned. Likewise those who have 'averaged down' - the most sure fire way of multiplying investment losses I know.
Example: 100 shares bought at £10, now trading at £5, percentage loss 50%, money loss £500. That holding topped up with 100 more at £6, and the holding is 200, at a cost of £1600, total holding now worth £1000, percentage loss reduced to about 37%, loss in money increased to £600.
Every purchase must be regarded as a separate transaction, whether it is a new holding or a top up. The merits (or otherwise) of a purchase are unaltered by whether you have made a prior purchase, or whether your prior purchase was above or below the current buying price.
I doubt if many holders would buy ARB if they discovered it now. To my mind it it time, very belatedly, for holders to sell and cut their losses. Something is better than nothing, and there is nothing in the investment rule book which says you have to try to recover your losses in the same stock as the one in which you suffered them.
Every holder has to ask himself 'Is the remaining value of my ARB holding more likely to grow in ARB, or in some other investment?' How many can answer 'ARB is the most promising prospect currently available in the market'? |
Reach for the door, open the door, bail out of the door. Hit my stoploss bummer you were right Jack. |
Delisting probably on the card? |
1knocker,
"Jacknife, ARB is not trading while insolvent while it continues to be able to meet its debts as they fall due."
I don't disagree with you, at this point in time ARB doesn't meet that test. However, they are uncomfortably close. It would be normal at this point for directors to start talking about "stakeholders" and to be super cautious about every penny that's spent!
JakNife |
Jacknife, ARB is not trading while insolvent while it continues to be able to meet its debts as they fall due.
That said, it is a mystery to me how the company goes forward from here. Its balance sheet is an albatross around its neck. It is a zombie. |
Has anyone been keeping an eye on Hut8 after all its troubles, seems to be riding on the crest of a wave! |
Thanks for the extensive response Jak, I'm not in for long term I'm in for a pump up and dump. I agree this is a dog, but there is hope in this market. |
It's all costed into the current SP |
Ball Deap,
"I was speaking to a friend at a broker , he said ARB are sitting on 23619 S19J pros with a used value of approximately $35.4m to $47m , if they don’t put them back in service and sell them. Mcap of 35$m, make you own views."
You should dump them as a friend; they can't like you that much if they're giving you such 💩 tips!
1. First and foremost, ARB revalued their BTC miners last year as they were in the accounts at an excessive price. At the interim stage ARB's "Mining and Computer Equipment" was valued at $18.2m,
see note 7 to the interims:
2. That aside, the number is totally irrelevant for ordinary shareholders because ARB has $40m of bond debt. And those bonds currently trade at a mere 31% of par:
ie the bonds are super super distressed
So, even if ARB did manage to sell its BTC miners off at a high price then, after paying $40m to bondholders, there would be a miniscule amount left for shareholders (if anything at all).
3. But it's worse than that, the net balance sheet at the interim stage showed a negative position of -$20.3m and this hadn't changed much after the first placing, which brought net assets to -$19.8m at Q3:
So it seems likely that bondholders and creditors are all going to take a bath if ARB were wound up now and there is zero prospect of *any* payment to shareholders!
Which does make you wonder if the current directors have taken any advice on trading whilst insolvent ... because they obviously are insolvent!
Bearing in mind that, at the current 4.51p share price the market cap is £32.3m, it's easy to see why ARB equity is so massively over-valued and an obvious SELL!
JakNife |
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