Argo Blockchain Share Discussion Threads

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 11:08

Echo your thoughts on longer term strategy and Div. @Richie666 when you produce an updated research note will you speak to the company? If so could you possibly ask some of the points posed by jane.

[jane deer] 06/8/2019 10:07

Tim. I agree and I do hold some shares. Mirabaud note shows how it is trading at less than a third of shares of other crypto miners. I can’t say it is a position that I am very comfortable with - partly due Bitcoin but also company specific issues.

My company specific concerns (in no particular order) would be: corporate governance (recently listed - so untested), quality of the shareholder list, forecasts depends on new equipment being delivered on schedule by Bitmain (there are frequent reports of chip shortages), uncertainty on my part what the long term strategy is. If Argo does produce significant cash in 2020 - will divs be paid or will this get reinvested in more machines, effectively a bet the BTC rally lasts into 2021?

Every stock has issues. But I would be grateful if anyone can address any of these concerns.

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 10:07

In their 2020 estimate they assume approx. 4106 coins(40.4M/($12k*0.82) are mined or 342 average per month, factoring in the halving and difficulty rate.

[tim000] 06/8/2019 09:32

Thanks Jane, I hadn’t made any allowance for that I admit. I’ll continue to refine the figures, but even so ARB looks far too cheap, based just on the Mirabaud estimates.

[tim000] 06/8/2019 09:29

Thanks scotty. Allowing for that, I still have gross profits of $46mn before deducting the non-cash charge of depreciation. That’s 13p per share!

[jane deer] 06/8/2019 09:27

Tim00. I am not a bitcoin expert but I think you have to factor in the difficulty rate increasing over time. Therefore an x% increase of the hashrate over 5 months will not lead to an x% increase in BTC produced. The difficulty rate seems to change every fortnight or so. The most recent increase on 5 Aug was by 10.7%.

Argo mined 163 BTC in July versus 161 BTC in June - despite having more S17s operating.

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 09:16

BTC Halving being the name for reduction in block rewards

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 09:13

tim00 I expect they factored in the “BTC halving” in May next year. In theory the share price should rise leading up-to it anyways but they maintained current BTC price estimate in their note

[tim000] 06/8/2019 09:09

The Mirabaud note looks too cautious. ARB generated 163 BTC in July. Capacity is estimated to increase by 296% by end year. That implies at least 645 BTC pm. At 12k per BTC, that’s gross revenue per month of $7.7 mn. Projected revenues for 2020 are therefore $93 mn at a BTC price of $12k. With each BTC costing about $2k, cost of sales next year are $15.5mn. That’s gross profits of $77 mn. According to my estimates.

[roddyb] 06/8/2019 08:52

That note is stellar. Basic law of economics, where a market can create super profits - other entrants to the market will appear. Not sure how that will affect us in the next 18 months but as long as BTC is $10k and above we are caning it. If it slips to $7,000 - we are still profitable.

The strategy of mining and holding BTC until various peaks in the price appear looks a bit good to be true, the purchase of the additional mining hardware looks like we are doubling down on our BTC bet. Why own a coin when you could have ARB??

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 08:46

Richie that note is outdated? Is the link correct

[riddlerone] 06/8/2019 08:36

With the peg on the Yuan/Dollar now released it seems that BTC is an attractive alternative.
Does anyone know what the usable life of the Z11/S17 are,just trying to get a handle on the annual Capex/Depreciation

[richie666] 06/8/2019 08:29

NAB BREAKDOWN -

[orm5] 06/8/2019 08:23

Wonder what they are going to do with all the cash?

[scotty666] 06/8/2019 08:10

It’s literally a money making machine. The share price will catch up soon.

[ragnarr] 06/8/2019 08:07

All based on a BTC price of US$10,122 ....BTC now 12,100 USD;-)

[topazfrenzy] 06/8/2019 08:03

No option but to buy if you don't have any.

[mcrudden] 06/8/2019 07:44

Very undervalued imo great update

[suffersnofools] 06/8/2019 07:16

Nice update.Cheap as chips.

[orm5] 06/8/2019 07:13

'The delivery and installation schedule of the new equipment is expected to result in a sequential month-on-month rise in Argo's production capacity over the next five months to approximately 500 Petahash by the end of Q4, representing a 296% increase over current capacity'

[ragnarr] 05/8/2019 12:05

Mastercard Hints at Future Crypto Wallet Product with New Job Listings

[ragnarr] 05/8/2019 11:19

Scotty - good header info - thanks.

[topazfrenzy] 05/8/2019 09:17

That's a great note scotty, thanks for highlighting it, I've now tipped it too.

[scotty666] 05/8/2019 09:12

Bumped the Mirabaud note to the header with plus1 coin for info

[topazfrenzy] 05/8/2019 08:55

Anyone selling at these levels must be insane.
Wait for when BTC smashes its all time highs and see where this gets to, I'd say 30p plus.