Argo Blockchain Share Discussion Threads

[mnomis] 19/11/2020 09:42

Yump - re channel trading, how did you know what was a dip and what was a high, using only fundamental analysis? Or are you saying that technical analysis worked, but make sure you sell out when channel breaks to the downside (i.e. only while channel is rising in a bull).

[yump] 19/11/2020 09:42

Suffersnofools

The point is that you’ve used a combination of factors to be successful. You just said it. Fair enough.

To be fair you haven’t claimed that anyone can just use charts and you haven’t made the claims that many make about charts.

By the way, questioning validity is how science progresses. Its exactly what open mindedness is about.

[suffersnofools] 19/11/2020 09:33

Yump - you're missing the point.But you're a non-believer lacking the open mind required to reevaluate your bias. Each to his own :)

[suffersnofools] 19/11/2020 09:31

Newguy - NOBODY can call a market accurately. Why do you think they could? TA is all about balance of probabilities and gaining an edge. Enough of an edge to make consistent profits. That's how traders make money - following the market (price action) not predicting it. Best strategy by far for most BTC holders has been HODL and that will stay the case at least for the next bull phase.

[yump] 19/11/2020 09:27

Suffersnofools

So you’ve developed your own system for success that combines all sorts.

Thats why I take claims about charting with a pinch of salt.

I used channel a bit years ago which worked quite well but only in a bull market. On reflection all I was doing was buying on dips and selling on highs on shares that were on a growth path. So the book on channels was very credible but not because of channels.

[suffersnofools] 19/11/2020 09:27

Looks like a fairly standard consolidation. Price has bounced off the 20ema on the 4hr. Next break above 18k should be decisive I think. A break below 17250 and the picture might change.

[1new guy] 19/11/2020 09:25

The one, single, only fact I've ever known about bitcoin is that nobody but nobody has ever called it correctly. If you say constantly it will fall in value, one day, when it does, you can CLAIM you called it. For rises, vice versa. If anybody knew the future surely they would be richer than Bezos by a massive margin. Look at the smugness of the short traders over the last two years, who have just got burnt very badly. It's always necessary to have a degree of pure luck as to whether you win or lose. Luck and timing are both out of even the greatest minds' ability to alter.

[giantpeach2] 19/11/2020 09:20

mnomis

No you are missing nothing re- topaz
He continuously changes his stance to suit his agenda,
I too will be using the filter button.

[suffersnofools] 19/11/2020 09:16

Nope - he's still the old frenzy :)

[horneblower] 19/11/2020 08:30

See also charts on post 7471 d 7472.

[trentendboy] 19/11/2020 08:10

A pause for breath makes senseWill fly past 10 with the next BTC leg up

[mnomis] 19/11/2020 08:00

Still have Topaz filtered from a while back. Am I missing anything sensible?

[topazfrenzy] 19/11/2020 07:38

20 to 30 percent correction on the cards before the next leg up, ignore the pumpers for now ... wait, accumulate

[sideshowbull] 19/11/2020 07:21

Today important day for BTC chart wise..

[hootza616] 19/11/2020 07:20

Touched 18000 again overnight, just a matter of time before the sellers are done and the newcomers take us higher.

[brasso3] 19/11/2020 06:44

Hootza

Correct, just the breakout to new highs.

The chart is just another way to reflect BTCs every increasing demand and contracting supply. Math playing out in pretty colours!

[suffersnofools] 18/11/2020 23:38

I think 99pc of peeps should just hold for the cycle - looking to take profits late 2021. I'll be looking to add on each 20pc+ pullback but core holding is just HODL. You looking to trade it?

[suffersnofools] 18/11/2020 23:36

Ah that's the chart I was looking for the other day! Thanks for posting.It clearly shows the parabolic phases post halving - previously approx 40x and 20x - so even if we halve again to 10x from ATH that gets us to $200k in this bull cycle. I doubt many here have held through one of these before. NOT hitting the sell button too early is the hard part :)

[hootza616] 18/11/2020 23:29

How do you determine the end of the reset period? Looks to me The regaining of the previous high but we are not there yet?

[brasso3] 18/11/2020 22:15

A good chart from Twitter showing the 4 year BTC cycle and the price movement post halving:-

[suffersnofools] 18/11/2020 19:10

Sideshow knows the form!

There are a millions of resources on the web that will teach you the basics of charting BUT unless you have the right psychological approach it won't help you much. Trading is a mental battle with yourself primarily.

I tried no end of 'systems' at the start and read every book going but eventually you realise that you need to develop your own system and style through trial and error. LOTS of errors, and lots of losses!

My current system is pretty simple. I use Elliot Wave and basic trend analysis to narrow the field, and then use support and resistance with a few moving averages and fibs, backed up with a few confirmation indicators. I am 100% strict as regards position sizing and money management and automate and continually back test to keep things in tune.

If you're the kind of person that needs a 'reason' for why the market does what it does, then TA isn't for you. There IS NO REASON! The market is driven by irrational humans, making decisions based on incomplete data. SENTIMENT drives the market, NOT fundamentals. I don't even bother engaging with someone if they try and tell me they know different :)

A couple of my fave reads:

[yump] 18/11/2020 17:58

suffersnofools

Can you point me in the direction of one of the best books then please ? Only after years of investing, I've yet to see a proper published analysis of verified success rates, based on a charting system. Perhaps I'm not looking in the right place.

What there is, is plenty of people claiming they've done well using charts, which is fine, but that's a separate issue from publishing a set of valid statistical data.

If its a system so complex that it requires a special skill set, then that's a bit of a get out imo, as the skill set would inevitably require personal judgement.

[hootza616] 18/11/2020 16:18

Hi Topaz good to see you back sharing your considered opinion as always.You should change your username to Hokey Cokey - In Out In Out.....