Argo Blockchain Share Discussion Threads

[horneblower] 19/4/2020 21:21

For me there are three major imponderables regarding ARB. Firstly they are tied to the price of bitcoin which might go up or might collapse (several chartists are pointing to a price of $1,000 although I can't see it going south of $2,400). Secondly the amortization of their main asset (computers) appears cavalier. Thirdly. there is clearly still selling pressure from a major shareholder.
This does not mean ARB won't fly if Bitcoin explodes; it will. But you have to be a fan of cryptos, and for many that is a dubious scenario.

[scottman72] 19/4/2020 18:43

Whichever way you look at it, ARB are seriously undervalued post halving.
I just ain’t got anything else to sell in order to invest more.

[crooky1967] 19/4/2020 14:17

Scottman72, I would expect the same hashrate reduction and would expect it to increase once BTC gets above $9k. For each additional $1k above current BTC price Argo are making an extra $3m a year on 257 coins a month.

[scottman72] 19/4/2020 13:36

I look at it like this.
Expected BTC without any other adjustments post halving will be around 180/month.
I expect about 30-40% drop in hashrate due to machines being switched off. Lets say 30% for the sake of it. This means ARB will get ~180/0.7 = 257 BTC with a minig cost of around £3000 * 2 * 0.7 = £4.2k.
So pretax mining profit of ~1m per month, £10m per year.
Running cost should hopefully be confirmed around £1.5m.
Tax is an unknown, but estimate 15% which should be on the high side, lets call it another £1.5m. So around £7m profit per year.
1:1 share price is then 2.3p. So then factor in which ever PE you'd like to imagine :-)
40p would suggest PE of about 17.
I wouldn't expect more than a PE of 5 for the next year till a proven track record for growth is presented, so share price about 11p.

[brasso3] 19/4/2020 13:14

Where do you get £2m profit for Q1 from?

The revenues were £6m as per the last operational update.

If they were able to generate £8m profit over the year why does that translate to a market cap. of £120m (40p)?

[pakenham] 19/4/2020 11:40

yes leverage is significant for arb... £2m+ net profit 1st q 2020 - no debt - £11m mcap. Market is on drugs... 40p fair value imo

[parsons4] 19/4/2020 11:22

And an even bigger move by ARB !!!!

[pakenham] 19/4/2020 10:31

hxxps://www.coindesk.com/166b-asset-manager-renaissance-eyes-bitcoin-futures-for-flagship-fund interesting demand for btc soon potentially - if the hedge funds decide fiat collapse and halving means btc is a perfect fit then we could soon see some silly moves in btc upwards

[parsons4] 19/4/2020 10:22

Pakenham a great post !! clear and concise !! I agree 100% with everything you said. A very interesting week ahead me thinks. Especially the USA where across the country they are out in the streets talking about freedom ????????

[horneblower] 19/4/2020 10:15

In the period that gold has gone up by 50% (since August 2018) BTC has halved, then doubled and is now back roughly where it started.

Gold is nothing like bitcoin and shouldn't be compared as the claimed reasons for comparison is purely ideological.

[pakenham] 18/4/2020 18:12

Incredible - how long before arb reaches a £ ???

[crooky1967] 18/4/2020 15:43

Riot blockchain, Hive, Hut8 and possibly Bitfarms

[brasso3] 18/4/2020 15:33

Are there any other BTC miners that are listed on the LSE, NYSE, TSX etc?

[pakenham] 18/4/2020 13:51

The chart says we are at an inflexion point and nobody has a scooby where we go from here. 8000 and 10000 approx resistance points - support at 6000 and 5000 - gold has moved up 50% recently and btc has not followed - the reasons for gold moving should apply to btc - gold needs to go up 18% to reach all time high and btc needs to go up 180% to reach all time high - as hedges they both look good - with btc halving coming, you'd expect a big move up - my main encouragement is that a hefty drop in btc would be needed to stop us being profitable - any drop in btc would be short lived as there are so many on sidelines looking to hedge against fiat weakness using btc and gold. I think we'll get close to 8000 btc next few days but nothing certain except arb is currently operating without debt with massive profits and if everything stayed as it is, it should be trading at 40p currently. What the future holds who knows. Net profit £2.5m in three months - no debt and cash in bank, and mcap of £11m, hence 40p is fair value as I write.

[parsons4] 18/4/2020 12:56

Thanks Pakenham interesting. An interpretation of the chart of BTC would be interesting.

[parsons4] 18/4/2020 09:49

Unfortunately this is just a waiting game. It would be nice to see BTC clear $7400 this week. This looks to me like an important level. Any chartists have a view ??

[pakenham] 18/4/2020 09:47

Halvings have only occured twice before and both were met with significant rises in btc in short, medium and longer term time frames. Whilst arb confirmed its profitability of approx £3m in just the first quarter of 2020 with zero debt, it is important to confirm that there is every reason to believe that btc goes much higher pre-halving and post-halving. The evidence is there historically but more more importantly, we are now living in an increasingly anti-fiat world, hence why gold has done so well. The collapse of traditional currencies and the printing of trillions of £ and $ and euros simply means that btc becomes relatively more scarce and supply limited, such supply limitation is about to be exaggerated by the halving event. USA hedge funds and investment vehicles according to Bloomberg are looking to invest in btc given the opportunity to hedge against the printing of trillions of $ of fake fiat. Arb has unicorn potential without a doubt and millions of cash in profit on its books already... it could survive a btc drop to much lower levels and still be profitable.

[base7] 18/4/2020 08:52

Companies House website clearly states accounts due to be filed by 30/6/20 -so totally ridiculous to state that they are late