 If anyone feels that ARB's days are numbered and the opportunity to lose money on ARB is therefore coming to an end, I see that Mode Global Holdings (suspended in 2023) is now out of suspension, so there are probably more losses to be made there now. For those who 'invest' in sucker stocks, why confine yourselves to ARB when you now buy Mode as well, and have two.
For over a year before it was suspended I warned punters to cut their losses and get out of MODE (for much of that time, and subsequently, I was saying the the same about ARB. I sold the last few of my ARB at a bit over 12). The Mode mugz called me troll, loaded my posts with downticks, continued to buy, and had lost about 90% of their money by suspension. I guess they are now happily buying yet more Mode shares to 'average down'.
Initially, ARB had a USP. With competent management, and a roll out plan for Texas which was within its financial means (probably a joint venture) ARB could have done very well. In the event, it raised and blew millions, with nothing to show for the money and now looks set to go into insolvent liquidation. A question of 'when' rather than 'if'.
Moonshots are risky. Even the promising ones generally fail in the end. In the aggregate, most investors in penny shares and moonshots lose more than they make.
As I see it, the name of he game is to buy the rumour and sell the news. Be content to take a modest profit, selling before the market wakes up to the time and cost of commercialising the concept, the company fails to raise the necessary capital, or you are diluted to next to nothing. There are mighty few free lunches.
I feel for those who rode ARB all the way to the top, failed to sell and take a damn good profit (or at least to sell enough to take a modest profit and continue with a smaller, free ride, holding) and then rose it down again until they were in loss. As for those who succumbed to FOMO and bought at the top, they have really been skinned. Likewise those who have 'averaged down' - the most sure fire way of multiplying investment losses I know.
Example: 100 shares bought at £10, now trading at £5, percentage loss 50%, money loss £500. That holding topped up with 100 more at £6, and the holding is 200, at a cost of £1600, total holding now worth £1000, percentage loss reduced to about 37%, loss in money increased to £600.
Every purchase must be regarded as a separate transaction, whether it is a new holding or a top up. The merits (or otherwise) of a purchase are unaltered by whether you have made a prior purchase, or whether your prior purchase was above or below the current buying price.
I doubt if many holders would buy ARB if they discovered it now. To my mind it it time, very belatedly, for holders to sell and cut their losses. Something is better than nothing, and there is nothing in the investment rule book which says you have to try to recover your losses in the same stock as the one in which you suffered them.
Every holder has to ask himself 'Is the remaining value of my ARB holding more likely to grow in ARB, or in some other investment?' How many can answer 'ARB is the most promising prospect currently available in the market'? |
Reach for the door, open the door, bail out of the door. Hit my stoploss bummer you were right Jack. |
Delisting probably on the card? |
1knocker,
"Jacknife, ARB is not trading while insolvent while it continues to be able to meet its debts as they fall due."
I don't disagree with you, at this point in time ARB doesn't meet that test. However, they are uncomfortably close. It would be normal at this point for directors to start talking about "stakeholders" and to be super cautious about every penny that's spent!
JakNife |
Jacknife, ARB is not trading while insolvent while it continues to be able to meet its debts as they fall due.
That said, it is a mystery to me how the company goes forward from here. Its balance sheet is an albatross around its neck. It is a zombie. |
Has anyone been keeping an eye on Hut8 after all its troubles, seems to be riding on the crest of a wave! |
Thanks for the extensive response Jak, I'm not in for long term I'm in for a pump up and dump. I agree this is a dog, but there is hope in this market. |
It's all costed into the current SP |
Ball Deap,
"I was speaking to a friend at a broker , he said ARB are sitting on 23619 S19J pros with a used value of approximately $35.4m to $47m , if they don’t put them back in service and sell them. Mcap of 35$m, make you own views."
You should dump them as a friend; they can't like you that much if they're giving you such 💩 tips!
1. First and foremost, ARB revalued their BTC miners last year as they were in the accounts at an excessive price. At the interim stage ARB's "Mining and Computer Equipment" was valued at $18.2m,
see note 7 to the interims:
2. That aside, the number is totally irrelevant for ordinary shareholders because ARB has $40m of bond debt. And those bonds currently trade at a mere 31% of par:
ie the bonds are super super distressed
So, even if ARB did manage to sell its BTC miners off at a high price then, after paying $40m to bondholders, there would be a miniscule amount left for shareholders (if anything at all).
3. But it's worse than that, the net balance sheet at the interim stage showed a negative position of -$20.3m and this hadn't changed much after the first placing, which brought net assets to -$19.8m at Q3:
So it seems likely that bondholders and creditors are all going to take a bath if ARB were wound up now and there is zero prospect of *any* payment to shareholders!
Which does make you wonder if the current directors have taken any advice on trading whilst insolvent ... because they obviously are insolvent!
Bearing in mind that, at the current 4.51p share price the market cap is £32.3m, it's easy to see why ARB equity is so massively over-valued and an obvious SELL!
JakNife |
I was speaking to a friend at a broker , he said ARB are sitting on 23619 S19J pros with a used value of approximately $35.4m to $47m , if they don't put them back in service and sell them. Mcap of 35$m, make you own views. Thomas Chippas and the rest have bled the company dry for sure but it can't get worse imo, my estimate is their hashrate is near 0.44 EH/s which shows in the current share price Remember the longer they keep them they go out of usable hash rate fast. They need to move fast from here to stay relevant. Expect spikes higher and try and make on the moves. |
QTB had multibagged in the last few days. ARB due the same, fair value share price 7.4 , top 12-15 share price The 23619 S19J pros will be online soon and hope for a higher BTC price. |
Even well run crypto miners find the going tough without scale and financial muscle.
Take a look at the history of another small miner, Soluna Holdings. |
For the benefit of the morons this company is bust though no doubt they are too stupid to realise it. |
Zen and tek are set to fly |
Thanks for this my man and to be fair Marty, I haven't taken much interest in cryptos for the last few years so missed out on the inaugural Trump pump but the more I read, im getting rather keen again except its more towards Alt coins than BtC as they seem to have the greatest potential for growth going forward! |
One_Frankel, give these channels a watch if you haven't for the last few months...
MMCrypto:
The Moon Show
Carl Runefelt Vlogs (From Cashier to Billionaire)
Regards,
M |
Whilst its risen today, well before the US opens!...EW theory was suggesting a fall into the late 80s after 'Wave C' before any upward momentum is sustainable (whatever the fu_ck that means but maybe good old Tykey can educate the less learned here with EW hey!)
...And like Zyd, I too am accumulating in various Cryptos presently, not so much in BtC but the smaller Alt coins as they invariably have the greatest momentum following a year or so after the halving!
...So check the commercial use cases of the smaller coins if inclined and please stay away from all the junk that currently resides in the crypto sphere! |
Hic, Happy New Year
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Buying BTC is unlikely to make one poorer, if you are leaving it there for 6 months, or 4 years.Timing the market means more return potentially, but potentially less.Just DCA into BTC over a few weeks? |
A fair amount of cash has built up in my accounts as a result of a slew of dividend payments over the last few weeks.I am tempted to buy more BTC. On the face of it the current pull back from $100k looks like a buying opportunity, but long and frequently unhappy experience tells me that when everyone and his dog is uber bullish (as seems to be the case with BTC at present) there is usually a further fall to come!
Maybe the better bet would be to back the prospect of increasing activity in the crypto market generally, and top up my Coinbase Globall holding. It is US listed though, so its recent slight dip in its share price has been offset somewhat by the fall in the £ against the $.
Any thoughts folks? |
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