There's a quirk if you hold via a nominee account. If your nominee holds for example 1M shares in total and only shareholders in the nominee totalling say 150,000 shares tender then you will get 100% filled. Something similar happened to me a few years back.
I don't know if it's me (maybe I'm just thick!) but the results always seem as clear as mud. It seems they've barely started to realise the Superbonus bonds and most of the funds being returned are due to aborted investments.
"...As at 31 December 2023, the Company's cash position, including cash held as collateral for foreign exchange hedging, was £29.1 million. Notwithstanding the remaining investment commitments, the cash position is forecast to increase significantly due to the expected realisations of Superbonus investments, which were valued at £30.9 million as at 31 December 2023 and which are forecast to be realised in full by 31 December 2024..." |
 Assuming I haven't misunderstood something really important regarding the tender offer, in theory 100% of shareholders should have tendered 100% of their shares, but of course in the real world some shareholders will not have participated for various reasons (death and taxes spring to mind). But how many?
I once owned Balfour Beatty convertibles that were great for income but were never going to be worth converting to ordinary shares but every year in the accounts I would see that a few thousand had been converted. The default choice was not to convert so the owners chose to do so, for AEET the default choice was not to tender any shares so there is a greater chance of a 'mistake' being made. However, despite this, my guess is that the 'excess entitlement' for those who want to sell more than their 'basic entitlement' will be less than 0.1%. We will all find out on Monday (or maybe Tuesday?).
It will be interesting to see what the share price, liquidity and bid/offer spread are a few weeks after the tender offer, Barclays haven't allowed purchases for a few months, other providers may follow.
EDIT: I'm assuming that all institutional investors tendered all their shares. If some didn't tender any the size of the 'excess entitlement' will be much larger. They might do this to have greater influence over the company, it would also allow very small shareholders who tendered all their shares to be paid in full and removed from the register. Not likely but possible. |
Looks quite tight to me at 64.5p on the offer.
So at the basic tender entitlement you would get just over a quarter of your money back, so would need quite a bit of over allocation to make that particularly worthwhile.
I had been buying around 55p and was hoping for a bit more in terms of the Italian Superbonus cash being returned.
If you take a view on that cash as well in maybe 6-9 months, it might be. But to make a turn just on the current one? Seems aggressive with other winding up type discounts in the 25%+ region, which often have a better record and paying regular divs (ie share price will likely wilt post tender). |
Is it worth buying in just for the tender offer? |
Because that's not what was voted for. 90% of shareholders voted for a wind-up. |
Anyone knows why do they not buy back their shares on the market instead? Such a waste |
wassapper - "The Company is seeking Shareholders' approval of the Tender Offer Resolution at a General Meeting to be held at 11.30 a.m. on 13 May 2024" - so yes. |
Does anyone know the qualifying date ie like an ex-dfivi date? For instance can I buy today and still participate? |
Theres always some that don't tender so you'll get more than basic entitlement if you tender all. |
The announcement also says that as they come into more cash they will do this again. That should keep a floor under the price even after this tender is completed. |
Indeed! An announcement this month surely. They've already announced final results should be out this month. |
They need to get it off the balance sheet and in my bank account! |
I don't think any of these kind of trusts would get sold at, or around, NAV just now. Especially the ones geared at 30%-50% of which there are quite a few. Interest rates are just too high. At least AEET already has substantial cash on the balance sheet though. |
Tender offer is good but Stifel couldn't find anyone willing to buy the assets at or around NAV. So is that Stifel's fault or is the NAV, which is board is anchored to, too high? Beats me. |
Yes not exactly helping.
I was buying more last week at approx 55p. I don't understand this 42% discount given the announced capital return and the likely near term additional capital return (later in year?) from the remaining superbonus investments. |
The share price won't be helped by the fact that you can only sell and not buy on the Hargreaves Lansdown web site as the KID is out of date so buying is suspended. Surely Aquila is shooting itself in the foot here! |
Just been on the LSE website, some big trades went through on the 5th at 53p. Maybe somebody was extremely 'lucky' (or unlucky) yesterday?
The market reaction has been good but maybe there is still doubt in the market about realising the rest of the assets at close to NAV. I can't think of any reason not to tender my full allocation in the offer. |
No nasty surprises at this point.
I guess with no dividends and rates being below the highs, the resilience in NAV is understandable (but not always the norm for a wind down!)
At least we have some visibility now rather than tumbleweed. Not sure when the superbonus cash might land in full though given the 'uncertainty' cited. |
Quite. It was (and is) patently too cheap for the signalled risk.
It was a question of when, and that was a difficult call. But all you had to do was buy a few and forget. |
NAV is up slightly to over 94p and initial tender of £17.5M |
It feels like they've lost interest... hopefully any update after all this tumbleweed will not be that a low ball bid is being recommended |
Yes maybe but it's not clear. I thought we may get an update this month but who knows with this lot. |
I'd also picked that up. I think the original amount touted by 31/3/24 was higher, over £30m? So £24m now factors in some delay from Italy? |
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