Quite. It was (and is) patently too cheap for the signalled risk.
It was a question of when, and that was a difficult call. But all you had to do was buy a few and forget. |
NAV is up slightly to over 94p and initial tender of £17.5M |
It feels like they've lost interest... hopefully any update after all this tumbleweed will not be that a low ball bid is being recommended |
Yes maybe but it's not clear. I thought we may get an update this month but who knows with this lot. |
I'd also picked that up. I think the original amount touted by 31/3/24 was higher, over £30m? So £24m now factors in some delay from Italy? |
 Maybe I'm just thick but are the company contradicting themselves here? From the interims to end June 2023;
"By 31 March 2024, as a result of the expected run-off of certain investments, in particular the Superbonus projects, the Investment Adviser expects the Company and its immediate investment holding entities, to have no less than GBP24.0 million of cash (prior to any dividend or return of capital to shareholders). "
They make the same statement twice in fact but then later in the document there is the following which reads like a delay. (But if so why initially emphasising the March2024 date)
"The Company had committed GBP32.5 million to five clusters of Superbonus projects, as at 30 June 2023, a small increase in base currency terms compared with the position as at 31 December 2022 of GBP33.0 million. The net cash deployed increased from GBP18.1 million as at 31 December 2022 to GBP29.0 million as at 30 June 2023. Significant progress has been made on the 109 individual projects within the five clusters such that construction has been completed on 84 of these projects to date. 40 of these 84 projects have secured their final tax credit accreditation and 9 projects have been fully completed, with payments totalling GBP0.9 million for those tax credits received. However, the ESCOs are experiencing delays in receiving certification that the projects qualify for tax credits and the buyers of the tax credits are taking time to make the payments due. As a result of this, the projects now have a longer maturity than originally forecast. This results in additional interest, currently at the rate of 10% per annum, being earned by the Company on the capital committed and deployed. As a result of the delays, the ESCOs are expecting the majority of the capital deployed to be redeemed by the end of the second quarter of 2024 with final payments expected in September 2024. This compares with their earlier expectation of the majority of capital deployed being redeemed by the end of January 2024" |
Should get an update this month |
I suspect you may be right. Weiss have also been popping up on IT registers and unlike Saba seem to prefer alternatives. Weiss seem to transact in chunks rather than nibbling away.
A number of the yield-y alternatives have started to drift lower after the rally post October (although AEET missed that - I guess the lack of div guidance means even fewer friends). Bond yields seem to have retraced 25-30bp from the lows but are still 100bp below the highs. That should make the underlying assets here a bit more attractive to any potential buyers that the Board are engaged with.
Does feel like a lot of people are back to sitting on the sidelines again so forced sellers can't be too picky. |
If we were in the land of conjecture the buyer has the smell and modus operandum of First Equity and the seller might be Rathbones as they have been selling some other stocks I own at stupid low prices.
Rathbones recently dumped a load of GSF in the mid 60's and it's now 85p. They also dumped a load of TENT at around 55p and it's now 66p. They don't seem to have much of a clue. |
I have been puzzling over these larger trades over the last few months. A considerable number of trades around the 250k size have gone through, yet we've seen no RNS on who is buying or selling.
It seems to look like one buyer who appears to have some form of arrangement with the MM where the buyer says I'll take up to 250k at 56.5p but I'm not paying any more. Once the 250k is filled the buyer seems to go away for a few days or a week or whatever before asking the MM to collect up to another 250k for them.
I do not know who is buying they must by now have 2-3 million shares, possibly many more.
The sells keep coming though and there are only so many options as to where they are coming from. My guess would be a few from either Rathbones or Schroders with a scattering from some of the other smaller institutional holders facing redemptions |
some larger trades going through recently |
Hugepants, thanks for posting offer was skewed, prompted me to add a few yesterday |
It has not bounced because BOTH there has been no recent news of any sort AND there is a merciless seller who just needs to quit a position.
Paying no recent (more?) dividends is a further headwind. |
Fixed income trusts in general have bounced a bit recently but not this one.
There is currently a very tight spread - 55.25p to 55.3p.
Latest NAV is 93.5p which was at end of June. June to Sept probably saw a further decrease in NAV but that could have been the bottom since alternative trusts have rebounded somewhat. Trying to get a handle on the current NAV, Anyone have any idea as to what current earnings are given its ungeared? 4p per annum about right? I'm hoping NAV not less than 90p currently.
Loads of possible upside here but still no news on realisations. |
It might tell us a lot given the relatively benign current conditions. Famous last words. |
16 Aug 23
...Accordingly, the process to market test the portfolio sale is commencing today and is being conducted by Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited ("Stifel") on behalf of the Company.
Due an update on this surely? |
Someone with heft sees value clearly |
Another decent sized trade for AEET at least and still loads of liquidity.
It seems to me the buyer is happy to soak up everything they can get at 55p |
There's more liquidity all of a sudden anyway. Maybe they've done a deal. |
Still here (but bought back in recently having sold out around 75p when other discounts had drifted wider).
Could this be Investec selling for clients transferring/cashing out? So many other trusts appear friendless. I guess it will need concrete cash returns to drive interest. Potential/likely cash returns don't seem to be enough at this point! |
OK, so here's a guess.
On the basis that existing RNS's show that most of the shares are tightly held and there has been no large holder in the market selling apart from Investec, I'm guessing Investec have supplied the shares that have been traded.
If we add up the shares over the last 3 days and halve the volume because I have this feeling they are kind of matched in some way it's a million shares that have gone through.
So, Investec supply a million but who has bought them? Could be anyone. Question is whether a million is enough or they will keep going?
Not that it matters because Investec have in excess of 20m shares left and were probably the fund that influenced the wind-up. |
For those left here there has been a run of large trades the last 3 three days many being reported late after the bell.
Most of them kind of all look matched in some way moving from one party to another.
I tried to work out who the seller might be but I got nowhere.
It's anyone's guess whether the seller has finished or whether they have millions and millions left but at least we have reached a support level. |
Regrettably I suppose I shouldn't expect anything any different when we are talking Italian government administration of the scheme
"40 of these 84 projects have secured their final tax credit accreditation" and we continue to get 10% p.a. while we wait.
I doesn't especially concern me but it seems AEET can't get much of a break with regard to anything |
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