I don't think he's saying the remainder would be worth 50% of the book value but given the current market the share price may well be at a 40%-50% discount.
FWIW I expect they will write down the NAV at next results but this should be mitigated somewhat by income generation. |
@langland: I never really follow comments like that. care to elaborate...?
Value range is complex and is presumably determined in large part by the tail of capital returns...?
I've heard talk of this gbp30mn coming in soon. lets assume its 'certain' and it comes out as capital return quickly - that justifies about 75% of the current price (or 36-37p)
that then leaves about 60p+ of NAV (published NAV is 95p) which you are saying is worth say another 30p, so a 50% discount being applied to that.
Is that what you are suggesting? |
With about 30mn of superbonus funds due to be received in the early part of this year, I would have thought fair value would be in the 60-65 range. |
This managed run off has a sporting analogy - when a soccer player is substituted with a few minutes remaining and their team is leading, their "managed run off" makes sure they leave the pitch as slowly as it's possible, maybe tying a bootlace (if boots for billion pound players have laces), waving to the crowds, etc
Apparently the discount is 47% |
Ex 6.139p this morning. Back to a ridiculously high spread again |
Picked up 4000 at 60.72p, on 35% discount to NAV. 6.139p (10.11%) dividend paid within a month. |
It seems that Aquila bought some very good investments, if only they hadn't taken so long to buy them and treated communicating with shareholders like it was the equivalent of cleaning the shower drain (something I only do when I have to).
As Jim Bowen used to say on Bullseye "Let's have a look at what you could have won!".
AEET was my worst investment decision because I kept buying into a falling share price but now it seems likely I will make an undeserved profit. Those who bought at the bottom will make a much bigger and deserved profit without taking much risk. |
Thought they may manage a small dividend, not over 6p and there's clearly a big capital return (around £28M) coming early next year.
Positive despite their usual best efforts to sound negative! |
I have not forgotten about this. But after that, there is a long void. |
In addition to the about 17mn cash in hand (from memory). |
Exactly...huge pants. |
Chucko I think you are forgetting the £30m in super bonus bonds due to be redeemed by end of the year. |
The issue I have with AEET is the extremely long term assets remaining (on average). Given the far greater immediacy of things like GABI, ASLI and API etc., I would rather have the bulk of my winddown chips with the latter.
Having said that, I did own a modest chunk of this prior to the first capital return (via tender), and that was uneventful and profitable. But the portfolio has been rather different in composition from that point. Lower rates might still make this interesting. |
It seems to me that this is completely off everyone's radar and yet has one of the biggest potential uplifts of the wind up plays. And yet when it was mentioned on the wind up thread we were shot down. Maybe everyone thinks it's a wind up! |
No sign of a quarterly update then. Its going to be pretty pointless releasing it at the same time as the interims. |
Chunky buy at 59.5p.
Due a quarterly update. |
Quite a few decent sized trades going through at the mid price just now. |
Spread here is ridiculous at over 8% 57-62p. However at 61p, discount is over 35% to latest 94.28p NAV.
Picked up 5000 at 60.85p this morning, with over 50% upside to nav. |
Not yet no. |
Anyone had a tender payment in an IG account yet ? |
Thanks HugePants, very helpful. |
Stag, It's not really a suggestion, it's all there in the results.
"...As at 31 December 2023, the Company's cash position, including cash held as collateral for foreign exchange hedging, was £29.1 million.
Notwithstanding the remaining investment commitments (£5.9M), the cash position is forecast to increase significantly due to the expected realisations
of Superbonus investments, which were valued at £30.9 million as at 31 December 2023 and which are forecast to be realised in full by 31 December 2024..."
There's clearly going to be a big redemption end of year ish. And there are only 82M shares now. |
Very interested in HugePants' suggestion that there's significant additional cash that can be realised shortly. Can others corroborate that?
Note that the Board reported in April's Annual Report that some relationships with ESCOs have become strained and "If these relationships deteriorate further, there may need to be additional impairment to the value of some of the company's investments'. It's not clear whether that's a penny or two pence per share or something more material. But it raises the question as to whether we could get some cash returned at close to 95p a share as HugePants is expecting. Views? |
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