Do we know anything about the rogue detractor? "... Q1 performance was negatively impacted by developments in one of the Private Equity portfolio companies..." |
The last bullet point:
"The Board is reassessing the Company's capital allocation policy and will update on progress of the review at the Capital Markets Day on 26 June 2024"
This can mean buybacks or a dividend cut. Difficult to know but adds a layer of uncertainty. |
Agreed speedsgh. Out of fashion and so good value across the whole sector. Take the attractive dividend yield and wait for the sector to re-rate. Are there any funds allowing us to buy the sector? |
NAV per share down 16% in both EUR/GBP since its peak in Q3/Q4 2021.
Share price down approx. 37% over same time period.
Has moved from low single digit discount to the current 34% discount.
Opportunity for the patient who are happy to wait for the NAV to return to growth & discount to narrow? To be fair you could probably buy the sector at present and make a decent return over the medium term. |
~ Q1 adjusted NAV per share EUR 2.54; -3.1% (GBP 2.17; -4.4%)
~ Total NAV return -0.5% (-1.9% constant currency)
* Total return private equity -1.7% (-3.2% constant currency)
* Total return debt investments +3.5% (+1.8% constant currency)
* Total return derived equity +13.6% (+11.8% constant currency)
Quarterly Results to 31 March 2024 -
Ralf Gruss, Partner at Apax and a member of the AGA investment committee, said:
"While Q1 performance was negatively impacted by developments in one of the Private Equity portfolio companies, we believe AGA's overall portfolio remains in good shape, offering solid value growth for shareholders. We are seeing continued momentum with several new private equity investments since the beginning of the year and there is a good pipeline of both new investments and exits. We believe the current share price significantly undervalues the Company's Private Equity holdings." |
Lots of activity by APAX (see RNS).
The discount is on the ridiculous side at 37% but what's staggering is if you take away the credit it's close to 50%. |
Unfortunate drop ahead of lower rate cuts ahead of European inflation. I have added some more as part of a diversified portfolio of multi-assets. |
It went down on US high inflation news today and APAX has a high allocation to US. I have also added. The downside protected by the credit income and sector wide discount on equity. We do have to wait though and bank the dividend in the mean time. European central rate cuts will be interesting as this is a European company with US exposure 🤔
This is a lower risk investment than other Private Equity and with a high reward of what 40% over the next 18 months? Many will not be able to wait. Not one for FOMO lovers, but patience. |
Actually more like sideways after going xd. |
Not sure it won't go lower but got to be in the cheap zone at this level. |
So why's it going down?!! |
Added c.143p. |
Added c.145p |
No surprises in todays results. Doing exactly what it says on the tin. Derivative portfolio delivering exceptional results and allowing the dividend policy to be continued while realisations from PE are reinvested. Huge discount will narrow at some point. Patience required in the meantime |
Yep , still seems a bargain when close to 150p. |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
Divi at 5% Of NAV delivers 11.35p, ie a yield at 153p of 7.42%.
"Against an uncertain market backdrop, AGA's performance remained resilient driven primarily by value creation in the Private Equity portfolio and strong returns from the Company's debt investments. Over the last five years AGA has delivered a total annualised return of c.12% and returned nearly EUR300m in dividends to shareholders. This is testament to the strength of AGA's portfolio and the Apax Funds' 'all-weather' investment strategy."
Does rather suggest this is a safe PE High-yielder trending down to the lows of its trading range.
I'll be looking for a cheap offer to be on-board soon... |
 Estimated Adjusted NAV as at 31 December 2023 -
AGA estimates its Adjusted NAV2 as at 31 December 2023 to be c.€1,288m (FY22 c.€1,299m) or €2.62 cents per share / £2.27 pence per share. Income from the portfolio and gains were largely offset by c.€65m paid in dividends to shareholders during the year and the impact of FX due to the EUR strengthening against the USD.
FY23 Total Adjusted NAV Return was 4.1% (6.1% constant currency) with Q4 Total Return of 1.9% (4.5% constant currency).
Details on the composition and valuation of the AGA portfolio as at 31 December 2023 (which may differ to those shown in the table below due to the various holding structures through which AGA invests) will be included in AGA's 2023 Annual Results, being released on 5 March 2024.
Commenting on the performance, Ralf Gruss, Partner at Apax and a member of the AGA Investment Committee, said: "Despite weaker economic activity in 2023, there was good momentum across the Private Equity portfolio with deal activity picking up in the second half of the year as more compelling investment opportunities emerged. The Apax Funds' strategy is not predicated on continued market tailwinds and its foundation focuses on buying right at entry and accelerating business performance during the funds' ownership to generate alpha. We believe it is a strategy well suited for the current environment." |
@nexusltd I do factor in dividend distributed from NAV on relative performance. The floating rate private credit was not a huge drag on performance during the good times and should now be a benefit with higher lending rates. Even with this drag there is a 40% discount on the equity. |
orinocor - they invest in various funds run by Apax Partners, rather than in individual companies. Any individual company is described as being on a "look-through" basis. Performance figures for the funds are given quarterly, at least.
However, they invested indirectly in seven new assets last year (see the RNS list) and made one disposal, Duck Creek, at a 46% uplift on carrying value.
Post #273 makes a good point, and personally I prefer my dividends to buybacks, which they aren't doing. |
Has anyone looked at the top ten investments. Does anyone follow the portfolio companies? I'm thinking of taking a position but I'll be frank, I have little idea what I am buying. Id be taking the net assets value at face value. |
@MrScruff With 26% of the portfolio invested in floating rate private credit, and 5% of NAV distributed in annual dividends, would you not expect its relative performance to lag its peers in up trending markets? |
Still very poor relative performance vs peers limiting the downside despite technicals showing "sell". I continue to add. Only a matter of time. APAX will eventually be an retirement income trust due to its dividend being taken from NAV and not share price. |
@speedsgh From
"(12 Jul 2022) - Matches confirms Nick Beighton as its new CEO,[6] Following this Matches received £60m from Apax[7] to power it's turnaround."
1. Looking through APAX PEIT's December 2022 AR, and the 2023 09 Q3 presentation, Matches is not listed in the top 30 PE investments. The investment quantum in the 30th holding is <1% of reported NAV.
2. APAX PEIT has not released an RNS regarding investment in Matches.
Unless you know any different I can only conclude that the APAX PEIT has an insignificant interest, if any, in Matches. |
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