Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 21:23

Yes, the House of Lords has been no use since the hereditary peers were removed. I mean to say. Frightful oiks in there now. Carlton Club types. And so many of them. Ghastly. Keep trying to touch you for a loan or touch you up. Don’t know which is worse. At least at the alma mater, you knew when the other fellow put his hand in your pocket, it wasn’t to get at your money, what? Haw haw. Where was I ?

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 20:06

...but please spare us from Liz Truss.

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 20:00

1347: Sajid Javed has gone as well. Not quietly, either. I don’t see how Boris can survive all this. They’re short of an alternative but he’s either really incompetent or very economical with the actualité indeed, what? I dare say he’ll go in short order into the Lords, so along with his protection detail, he’ll retain many of the trappings without having to do any work at all. He’ll earn a fortune on the after-dinner circuit and be able to ridicule his former colleagues in his Press work. A charmed life really, innit?

[1347] 05/7/2022 19:32

Oops JT just seen the news (I was watching Wimbledon QFs) so slippery Sunak has gone (another waster anyway) and some Trade Envoy. The men in dark suits (and possibly white coats) must be at the No 10 front door? Taxi for Liar Johnson!!

[1347] 05/7/2022 19:28

Has he gone then? I predicted he wouldn't make the Tory conference. If so great news, but should have been ages ago. I've been geeing up some Tory MPs to get rid of him for a while. When he goes hopefully it will mean we are past peak Eton, it seems to be a school for anyone lacking integrity and competence doesn't it.

[3put] 05/7/2022 19:27

Posted on LSE today - New investor questions answered

You expect the 2 wells to produce 1.5 mil therms of gas a month. But am I correct in thinking those 2 wells could produce more?

And would I be correct in assuming there is enough capacity onsite for gas from the two wells up to 3 mil therms?

Regardless of the sidetrack. Asked on 1 July 2022
The field having been shut in for so long, all the technical experts expect increased deliverability during the first six months of production. Additionally it was always open to the old Operator to run the wells a bit harder. Generally there are technical risks to pushing a well too hard, but we think that we could do better than 1.5m therms and, likewise the site equipment has some flex in terms of capacity but it would require some thought and planning.

Will there be further sidetracks at SBY in future to reduce the hedged gas at these high prices. Thankyou, and keep up the excellent work. Asked on 1 July 2022
Yes, although none planned for 2022. We would like to open up the southern lobe of the field in 2023 where we see low cost side tracks for high potential returns.

Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022
We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow

Hi as an investor I want to know how you feel about the war in ukraine and oil & gas commodity prices rising? Do you think its going to be good for you on the whole. Asked on 1 July 2022
The war in Ukraine has supercharged the continental European markets but in the UK we pay NBP not TTF. Our UK market is heavily reliant for marginal supply on LNG cargoes from US and Qatar. European markets facing supply constraints as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine tragedy cannot easily switch to LNG because terminal capacity to receive LNG cargoes on the continent is limited. So the UK is not as affected by the conflict as many others.

The real problem is the global dearth of investment in new supply. Take it as read that the timelag from identfication to realisation of a decent gas field is a five to ten year affair. The period of 2015/16 to the end of Covid in 2021 saw the lowest levels of investment in new capacity in 40 years in part because of the commodity price slide in early 2016 and then as a consequence of the impact of climate change activism.

The result is that we are unlikely to see new capacity added in great quantity until 2026 whatever the Russians do. Unfortunately many of the largest fields were in Russia and smaller operators running smaller fields still struggle to raise funds – particularly for exploration or early stage development.

So Angus does see an ongoing high price for natural gas and, to help in our geothermal ambitions, for electricity production which still relies overwhelmingly on gas fired generation. This will be good for shareholders.

[3put] 05/7/2022 19:25

With all #hydrotesting and the bulk of #nitrogen (leak and integrity) testing complete, #ANGS will now proceed to test skids individually for communication with the central computer system and function testing of all control elements. @angusenergyplc Update to follow! [...]

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 18:41

1347: this is surely the end for Boris. One OE down...

[bobaxe1] 05/7/2022 16:48

https://twitter.com/angusenergyplc/status/1544302945772126209?t=Vjx4EQeXRaVvm-3eb9aoCQ&s=19

[headinthesand] 05/7/2022 15:29

3Put, I have explained to you - and more importantly, to anyone reading this - how that is literally impossible.

The first 19.125 million therms ANGS produces between now and Jun 30th next year gets sold at £8.83 million OF REVENUE, because of the hedge.

That is a cold, hard, cast-iron and contractually locked-in fact. £8.83 million of REVENUE in the next 12 months.

Now, to produce those 19.125 million therms over 12 months, ANGS will need to produce just under 1.6 million therms a month. Every single month.

Now... how much more gas over and above those pre-sold 19.125 million therms are you assuming ANGS will produce in the next 12 months... WITHOUT a sidetrack? Even His Pinocchio-ship George is saying only 675,000 therms more in the year.

You're talking utter cobblers.

[3put] 05/7/2022 15:09

HITS

£3 a therm that’s £1.5m profit a month on the excess! Regardless of the sidetrack

That's what my calcs say

[3put] 05/7/2022 15:08

New investor questions answered

You expect the 2 wells to produce 1.5 mil therms of gas a month. But am I correct in thinking those 2 wells could produce more?

And would I be correct in assuming there is enough capacity onsite for gas from the two wells up to 3 mil therms?

Regardless of the sidetrack. Asked on 1 July 2022
The field having been shut in for so long, all the technical experts expect increased deliverability during the first six months of production. Additionally it was always open to the old Operator to run the wells a bit harder. Generally there are technical risks to pushing a well too hard, but we think that we could do better than 1.5m therms and, likewise the site equipment has some flex in terms of capacity but it would require some thought and planning.

Will there be further sidetracks at SBY in future to reduce the hedged gas at these high prices. Thankyou, and keep up the excellent work. Asked on 1 July 2022
Yes, although none planned for 2022. We would like to open up the southern lobe of the field in 2023 where we see low cost side tracks for high potential returns.

Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022
We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow

Hi as an investor I want to know how you feel about the war in ukraine and oil & gas commodity prices rising? Do you think its going to be good for you on the whole. Asked on 1 July 2022
The war in Ukraine has supercharged the continental European markets but in the UK we pay NBP not TTF. Our UK market is heavily reliant for marginal supply on LNG cargoes from US and Qatar. European markets facing supply constraints as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine tragedy cannot easily switch to LNG because terminal capacity to receive LNG cargoes on the continent is limited. So the UK is not as affected by the conflict as many others.

The real problem is the global dearth of investment in new supply. Take it as read that the timelag from identfication to realisation of a decent gas field is a five to ten year affair. The period of 2015/16 to the end of Covid in 2021 saw the lowest levels of investment in new capacity in 40 years in part because of the commodity price slide in early 2016 and then as a consequence of the impact of climate change activism.

The result is that we are unlikely to see new capacity added in great quantity until 2026 whatever the Russians do. Unfortunately many of the largest fields were in Russia and smaller operators running smaller fields still struggle to raise funds – particularly for exploration or early stage development.

So Angus does see an ongoing high price for natural gas and, to help in our geothermal ambitions, for electricity production which still relies overwhelmingly on gas fired generation. This will be good for shareholders.

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 15:04

HITS: the Anguish presentation which Iamthegasman kindly posted earlier gave the annual OPEX spent by Wingas as £1.8mm p.a. Anguish said that, since they, Anguish, are leaner than Wingas, they could reduce that to £1mm. (and get the plant finished between May-August 2020 within their £2.5mm budget). Wingas merely piped basically treated gas to Theddlethorpe for refining (or whatever the term is for gas). Anguish are operating a whole, bespoke, plant. How are they going to do that for £2mm., never mind £1mm? In addition, there’s over £4mm. of loan repayment next year. The RNS today was light of information on a start date. If it’s not finished and piping gas to Shell soon, they’re likely to need yet another placing. Yes, really. Then there’s the consequent substantial delay to the sidetrack - even assuming they’re allowed to drill it while producing gas. They’re going to have to look, with their brokers etc., at their going concern status soon, what?

[3put] 05/7/2022 14:16

Angus Energy (AIM: ANGS) is pleased to announce that the Company's main 8 kilometre export line to Theddlethorpe's National Grid Entry point has now been purged of nitrogen and pressured up to 60 barg with grid specification gas. Nitrogen is used for its inert properties to prevent corrosion within a pipeline during periods of shut in. Removal of nitrogen is one necessary preliminary step to being able to flow our own natural gas forward into the national transmission system.

With all hydrotesting and the bulk of nitrogen (leak and integrity) testing complete, we will now proceed to test skids individually for communication with the central computer system and function testing of all control elements.

[sincero1] 05/7/2022 13:49

another slap to the grey old stale urine smelling nobodies...happens every single time ...

[onetomany] 05/7/2022 11:49

2p this is the el is nailed on.

[3put] 05/7/2022 11:28

At £3 a therm that’s £1.5m profit a month on the excess! Regardless of the sidetrack

[jtidsbadly] 05/7/2022 10:13

Yes, he’s changed his mind but it’s hard to see how the facts have changed. He ordered two 5mmscfd compressors months before that Q&A. Did he not check whether they have spare capacity? He’s proved over the past three years that if a negative construction can be put of any of his utterances, you can pretty well rely on it. I doubt he’ll get more than the rated capacity out of them. In any case it would be surprising if the HSE would allow them to be run in excess of their rated capacity.

Loads of share supply due in the next few weeks. He’ll need some good news on start-up and gas flow if the share price is to stay near current levels.