Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 04/7/2022 15:47

Hmmm, Jonny, I think I’ll go with HITS.

[3put] 04/7/2022 15:17

Gas close to £3 a therm. Must be close to 200m over 3 years to angs now ?

[3put] 04/7/2022 15:16

Hits, you said 130 million revenue over 3 years to Angs. Is that current gas prices?

[gasman10] 04/7/2022 15:13

HIts nice try Go back to your boiler room

[headinthesand] 04/7/2022 15:11

Before George can pay the loan down, he needs to settle the differential in the monthly swap contracts on the hedge.

Perhaps best not to count chickens before they hatch, i.e. until knowing for sure what the sustainable production rate is from the two producing wells.

Separately, Sincero keeps banging on that the company is "very confident" in the sidetrack. Seriously? So what? The company has repeatedly expressed equal confidence in many things, precisely none of which have happened.

As a mark of this, just three months ago, George was banging on "very confidently" about the fully unhedged production that would be got out of Saltfleetby in June, and that would fetch up to £7.2 million...

How did that show of confidence turn out?

[gasman10] 04/7/2022 15:00

Most have been forward sold anyway

[3put] 04/7/2022 14:44

There's no real surprise in the placing RNS. Pretty much all of the shares have now been placed and paid for and I would imagine ANGS have a placee in mind for the last £1 million at under 1.10p.

If the gas is flowing at the end of this week or during next week then cash will soon be hitting the company bank account and 'hopefully' GL starts paying down the loan debt immediately.

We all know the gas is about to flow so the next unknown is what the sustained rate will be. I'm hoping for a higher rate than what has been estimated due to the pressure build up since suspension. Even a higher rate for a few days/weeks before it settles will be a bonus. The more unhedged gas we get the faster we can pay that loan off.

Fingers crossed for a smooth and 'on time' sidetrack (slim chance of that in my view but time will tell).

[3put] 04/7/2022 14:43

New investor questions answered

You expect the 2 wells to produce 1.5 mil therms of gas a month. But am I correct in thinking those 2 wells could produce more?

And would I be correct in assuming there is enough capacity onsite for gas from the two wells up to 3 mil therms?

Regardless of the sidetrack. Asked on 1 July 2022
The field having been shut in for so long, all the technical experts expect increased deliverability during the first six months of production. Additionally it was always open to the old Operator to run the wells a bit harder. Generally there are technical risks to pushing a well too hard, but we think that we could do better than 1.5m therms and, likewise the site equipment has some flex in terms of capacity but it would require some thought and planning.

Will there be further sidetracks at SBY in future to reduce the hedged gas at these high prices. Thankyou, and keep up the excellent work. Asked on 1 July 2022
Yes, although none planned for 2022. We would like to open up the southern lobe of the field in 2023 where we see low cost side tracks for high potential returns.

Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022
We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow

Hi as an investor I want to know how you feel about the war in ukraine and oil & gas commodity prices rising? Do you think its going to be good for you on the whole. Asked on 1 July 2022
The war in Ukraine has supercharged the continental European markets but in the UK we pay NBP not TTF. Our UK market is heavily reliant for marginal supply on LNG cargoes from US and Qatar. European markets facing supply constraints as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine tragedy cannot easily switch to LNG because terminal capacity to receive LNG cargoes on the continent is limited. So the UK is not as affected by the conflict as many others.

The real problem is the global dearth of investment in new supply. Take it as read that the timelag from identfication to realisation of a decent gas field is a five to ten year affair. The period of 2015/16 to the end of Covid in 2021 saw the lowest levels of investment in new capacity in 40 years in part because of the commodity price slide in early 2016 and then as a consequence of the impact of climate change activism.

The result is that we are unlikely to see new capacity added in great quantity until 2026 whatever the Russians do. Unfortunately many of the largest fields were in Russia and smaller operators running smaller fields still struggle to raise funds – particularly for exploration or early stage development.

So Angus does see an ongoing high price for natural gas and, to help in our geothermal ambitions, for electricity production which still relies overwhelmingly on gas fired generation. This will be good for shareholders.

[jtidsbadly] 04/7/2022 14:42

1347: the need for Aleph to prevent Anguish from falling into Mercuria’s hands may be another reason for their belated take-up of two-thirds of their commitment in the second placing. There would be nothing left in an insolvency for Aleph and their clients once the hedge liabilities were calculated. I suspect they’ll be feeding some of these out ASAP.

[1347] 04/7/2022 14:25

So the RNS on 1st June 2022 stated that: “....intended to form part of a 21% strategic stake taken by an investor group led by Aleph International Holdings (UK) Limited ("Aleph").

However if held 7.19% according to Anguish Energy website and now have (the reduced) tranche 2, which is 7.38%, then how do they get to a strategic stake of 21%? Or was that just more misinformation? Never have seen a TR-1 either have we?

[headinthesand] 04/7/2022 13:58

Tidy, agreed. I'm quite sure that ANGS will do the standard micro-cap AIM O&G company thing of only releasing the very initial pressure/output figures. (That is, after all, traditional).

I'm still thinking that George upping his monthly production forecast by 10% to 1.65 million therms a month while simultaneously announcing another two week delay (and thus missing the first couple of weeks of the hedge) was awfully convenient, no?

Mind you, even 1.65 million monthly therms isn't going to cut it re the hedge for the nine months starting Oct 1st. They're going to need that as yet unattempted sidetrack to deliver...

[tidy 2] 04/7/2022 13:46

Let's see what flow rates they achieve. Expecting the initial figures to be up then gradually drop off as usual. As long as the hedge is covered it will be encouraging but the margins are thin.

[onetomany] 04/7/2022 13:41

Should be gas sales announcement this week. Will place a sell all order at 2p for the inevitable spike on news. Easy money to be made here this week.

[1347] 04/7/2022 13:33

So I'll start the clock for whether Aleph issue a TR-1, they never did last time, despite holding over 7% (alegedly). I suspect many will get flipped to the usual mug PIs at the normal 10%+ profit, easy money for the barrow boys.

[3put] 04/7/2022 12:49

Posted on LSE today - New investor questions answered

You expect the 2 wells to produce 1.5 mil therms of gas a month. But am I correct in thinking those 2 wells could produce more?

And would I be correct in assuming there is enough capacity onsite for gas from the two wells up to 3 mil therms?

Regardless of the sidetrack. Asked on 1 July 2022
The field having been shut in for so long, all the technical experts expect increased deliverability during the first six months of production. Additionally it was always open to the old Operator to run the wells a bit harder. Generally there are technical risks to pushing a well too hard, but we think that we could do better than 1.5m therms and, likewise the site equipment has some flex in terms of capacity but it would require some thought and planning.

Will there be further sidetracks at SBY in future to reduce the hedged gas at these high prices. Thankyou, and keep up the excellent work. Asked on 1 July 2022
Yes, although none planned for 2022. We would like to open up the southern lobe of the field in 2023 where we see low cost side tracks for high potential returns.

Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022
We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow

Hi as an investor I want to know how you feel about the war in ukraine and oil & gas commodity prices rising? Do you think its going to be good for you on the whole. Asked on 1 July 2022
The war in Ukraine has supercharged the continental European markets but in the UK we pay NBP not TTF. Our UK market is heavily reliant for marginal supply on LNG cargoes from US and Qatar. European markets facing supply constraints as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine tragedy cannot easily switch to LNG because terminal capacity to receive LNG cargoes on the continent is limited. So the UK is not as affected by the conflict as many others.

The real problem is the global dearth of investment in new supply. Take it as read that the timelag from identfication to realisation of a decent gas field is a five to ten year affair. The period of 2015/16 to the end of Covid in 2021 saw the lowest levels of investment in new capacity in 40 years in part because of the commodity price slide in early 2016 and then as a consequence of the impact of climate change activism.

The result is that we are unlikely to see new capacity added in great quantity until 2026 whatever the Russians do. Unfortunately many of the largest fields were in Russia and smaller operators running smaller fields still struggle to raise funds – particularly for exploration or early stage development.

So Angus does see an ongoing high price for natural gas and, to help in our geothermal ambitions, for electricity production which still relies overwhelmingly on gas fired generation. This will be good for shareholders.

[jtidsbadly] 04/7/2022 12:46

Well, there’s the second placing RNS. Only it’s for £2mm. not £3mm. The final £1mm.may or may not be subscribed on 31 July.

The boiler room is suggesting Aleph have been told the gas pressure is high. It’s equally likely they had an agreement that the second tranche would only complete if the share price spent a little while above 1.3p.

There’s an enormous potential supply for the market to absorb from here on.

[oilandgasman1] 04/7/2022 12:21

MOS MAJOR NEWS CATALYST CHECK IT OUT

[headinthesand] 04/7/2022 12:21

Top Cat, Benny, ChuChu, Brain, Spook... anyone I've forgotten?

Next up, Wacky Races drivers and cars?

[1347] 04/7/2022 11:49

JT Ah yes it was Dibble not Digby, mixed the names up there.

[gasman10] 04/7/2022 10:23

So of those are buys