Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 08/4/2022 15:48

Have a good weekend everyone, first gas within touching distance

[3put] 08/4/2022 15:02

JD-Nau

Posts: 139

Price: 1.225

No Opinion

RE: 7m revenue per month vs low mcap 17m currentlyToday 14:35
I was looking at HITS’ posting history and it is fascinating to see how he relentlessly focuses on the negative, but it is hilarious to see how even his negatives have started to become positive. Not long ago he was proclaiming that Angus would never get the funding to make “PoundlandR21; work. Then Saltfleetby would never generate any significant amount of gas. Then the gas price was too low, then the hedge was going to ensure that Angus never made any money.

Now he is arguing over whether or not Saltfleetby will generate £7 million in July and saying that Angus will only net approximately £2 million. Just to be clear, this is £2million net to Angus in a single month from a project that he said was worthless and apparently this is still a negative. Laughable, just laughable

[shareprofessor] 08/4/2022 14:46

My oddities filter is working overtime today thank goodness , one dreads to think of what malarkey they are proporting as fact. Predictable considering the 2 RNS', however the real barometer here is not speculation on forum boards by anonymous deceptive irritants it is the share price and that remains high even accounting for the small drop so far today.

[ja51oiler] 08/4/2022 14:38

I think you forgot C) HITS. If they can't drill and produce at the same time then they still need to pay Mercuria for the contracted gas.......and D) the second compression package needs to be in place by October when the increased amount is required.

[headinthesand] 08/4/2022 14:24

..except if they're not in full production by July 1st, 1347, that brings with it an eye-wateringly painful cash penalty in making up the differential in the swap contracts with Mercuria.

Regardless of how much or how little gas is produced in July, at current gas futures pricing, ANGS and SEL are contractually bound to pay Mercuria in excess of £2.3 million on the swap contract in that month alone (and that's on top of all their other liabilities and costs).

There is no wriggle room or slack left at all. And things get even worse on those swap differentials in October, if the sidetrack is unsuccessful. Because from October and for the next 8 months, ANGS and SEL are contractually bound to pay Mercuria in excess of £3.5 million every single month, due to the hedge.

That would leave them each with a gross monthly revenue of under £150k...so they'd better pray that sidetrack is a) successful and b) on time.

[onetomany] 08/4/2022 14:23

Don't deviate from the fact that gas is coming along with a rerating.

[1347] 08/4/2022 14:18

JT I doubt Lucan has mastered differential calculus, he struggles with simple arithmetic. Probablity theory would also surely elude him. First gas will be defined to mean whatever allows another can kick come June.

[headinthesand] 08/4/2022 14:14

Full production from June 1st... not a snowball's hope in Hell in my book.

However, we've only got less than 8 weeks to wait and see if (utterly unlike every single other one of George's wildly overoptimistic projections) that turns out to be true. It seems to be... "how much gas and by when, George?" Now where have I heard that before?

This is so squeakily tight against the ever larger looming hedge kicking in in exactly 12 weeks from today - I wonder if his lordship has factored in the various bank holidays? They're going to need every working hour available if they're to meet the hedge...

[jtidsbadly] 08/4/2022 14:04

I’m surprised no one has commented on this, from his statement this morning:

“George Lucan, CEO, commented: "Our Competent Persons Report of October 2021 gave a P90 valuation of £24 million (P50 of £34 million) to our interest in Saltfleetby, since which time confidence in our ability to achieve First Gas in June has risen, and the wider market has reflected this in our own share price.”

It seems to me he’s given up on his ridiculous earlier claim and it’s about time. He should apologise for it. If all he’s expecting is what the CPR said, that’s a big change, what?

Does he not understand what is usually meant by “first gas”, or is he merely trying to confuse the chumps on the other site? The Malcy interview in July 2020 is worth a listen on the subject of HSE/NG sign-off. And once again, the time scale has slipped. It seems instead of extending the target date by two months every two months, he’s taken to extending it by one month every month. It’s a bit like the old puzzle about frogs (not) getting out of circles by taking jumps half the size of the previous one to infinity.

[onetomany] 08/4/2022 13:50

One day after May as I said before the RNS. It's all scripted. 5p coming

[headinthesand] 08/4/2022 13:44

"Furthermore, shareholders can expect 1.5M therms of gas to be produced from May"

If George ever said this, the company has conclusively corrected this statement with today's second RNS.

First gas is not being reached until June.

[sincero1] 08/4/2022 13:37

I thought I would leave my game of water polo just to see the predictable reaction from the resident old grey disingenuous crayon eaters following todays rns'. usual negative supposition , desperate to find the negatives. reality is things are going well hence the market is not bothered judging by price and just showing what little these nobodies know. hits really has just become a tiresome boring bitter investor..price still over 20% what he sold out at and its killing him... wait and see kiddies...pahahaaa... I'm off for another mojito..i will be back to point and laugh at you bellends next week.

[3put] 08/4/2022 13:33

LondonSouthEast ;

Posts: 207

Price: 1.15

No Opinion

London South East interview with George Lucan, MD at Angus EnergyToday 17:11

We were delighted to catch up with George Lucan, who hasn't been able to do many interviews lately because of the restrictions imposed by the Takeover Panel.

What he was able to say today was: "We are continuing to be in discussions with parties." And: "The one thing I can add is that as a board we have worked so hard for this we are not about to give this away for 'a song'. We will drive the hardest bargain that we can in this environment."

Furthermore, shareholders can expect 1.5M therms of gas to be produced from May, and a further 1.5 M therms from the sidetrack well in August (51% of which goes to #ANGS making them debt free by the year end)- and Brockham is to start producing again after a two year hiatus. Please view the interview here: hxxps://youtu.be/AXgCtePbShc

[3put] 08/4/2022 13:32

maybe Shell will buy out ANGS ??

[3put] 08/4/2022 13:32

maybe Shell will buy out ANGS ?? hxxps://www.cityam.com/shell-to-invest-25bn-in-uk-energy-systems/

[onetomany] 08/4/2022 13:00

More great news. It's going to be a very exciting few weeks and expect to see a surge in the share price. Could easily be 5p when gas confirmed

[headinthesand] 08/4/2022 12:55

"Continues to target"... you have to love those weasel words.

Much like "is aiming for", "has confidence in", "continues to hold and encourage suppliers and contractors".

I think George with the help of LSE has got himself into a real pickle with some of his recent statements (e.g. "1.5 million therms = £7.2 million of revenue") and with the wild and utterly unachievable projections in the LSE summary of his recent interview ("shareholders can expect production of 1.5 million therms in MAY"). May FFS...

This is a very rushed RNS - and even with the caveat of the usual ANGS weasel words, claiming that first gas and full production will be simultaneously achieved on June 1st, thus delivering a full 1.5 million therms of production within the month of June is utterly ridiculous.

And on top of everything else, still 500 of the 1,000 welds started in January to go. Oh dear. What a tangle his lordship has got himself into.

[1347] 08/4/2022 12:27

I see they've published an updated timeline. Where do any safety checks and approvals by the National Grid, HSE etc. occur? Do they expect it to be within those timescales? If so then they are implying that by 1st June 2022 they will have had 'the nod' from one and all and can then supply gas to the grid at full bore (whatever that will be for the existing wells)? Or is it more a case of being economical with the actualité?

[3put] 08/4/2022 12:10

The Company continues to target First Gas by 1 June allowing for one full month of unhedged production. 

[3put] 08/4/2022 11:48

George Lucan, CEO, commented:

"The focus is now away from skid delivery to installation with the aim of having the site ready for commissioning during April and producing during May. The present gas price forward curve shows very high average prices of over 400 pence per therm for 2022.

In fact, gross production, of which we have a 51% share, solely from the existing wells and which is wholly unhedged for the month of June, is expected to yield 1.5 million therms or gross revenue of £7.2 million at today's forward price for that month alone.

Gross production solely from the side-track, should it be successful, is again wholly unhedged for the remainder of the year and is expected to yield a further 1.5 million therms each month of which Angus share is 51%.

The forward curve remains very high and seems likely to remain high this year and the company is more than anyone else acutely conscious of the need to preserve our timeline in order to provide value to shareholders whether through revenue sales or corporate action."

[onetomany] 08/4/2022 10:50

Will close blue ... best news yet that sale aborted as it would have seriously undervalued vis à vis what we are about to see in May.

[1347] 08/4/2022 10:48

JA Yes the window of opportunity for the sidetrack was missed last year. "Target mobilisation of rig is slated for first week in October". They've never explained why it wasn't, they had the funds and had had plenty of time to plan it. Just one of many pieces of misinformation that has come out of this company.

[3put] 08/4/2022 10:29

All aboard the Angus Express…

“…All of which leaves companies with gas projects ready to go like @angusenergyplc in a strong position. After several dry years #ANGS seems set to spark into life this summer as production gets underway…̶1;

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