Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 02/4/2022 11:17

(Part 2/2)

George strikes me as a cautious sort. They have put some numbers out there but imagine if the actual numbers were higher? De-rampers like HITs keep banging on about the company having to hit their targets to get to the promised land but what if they exceed them? The 2 wells have been shut-in for 4 years. Pressure has built, and technology and equipment has improved. We also know the field had lots of equipment issues etc in the final year. Not that I know anything about the technical side of things. Not a clue. Happy to listen to any technical experts on this point. Just putting it out there for discussion.

If they do sell, I just hope George and the Board do not settle for anything less than 6p+ a share. I am not keen for my shares to go for anything less, just because they may need the funds for some geothermal project that frankly I can’t get excited about. From what I can gather, not many shareholders can. Again, respectfully George, please take note.
Saltfleetby and gas is where it is at. The clear brief here has to be to maximise shareholder value.

This share has some real momentum now. Outside interest and confidence is rapidly increasing. As we get closer to first gas, hopefully this will only continue.

Good luck to all genuine holders

[3put] 02/4/2022 11:17

Hi All,

Part 1/2,

I have been a shareholder in Angus for a long time (yes, the horrible times of years ago) and I have to say I have never known this board with so much optimism and hope. Not for years anyway. To be honest, I never thought I would see this again.

Even this share board’s resident pantomime villain HeadInTheSand – who most on this board (including probably him!) would agree is a very persistent critic of the company – stated yesterday that he would value the Angus share price at between 5p (cautious) and 9p (optimistic) if the sidetrack is successful.

Wow. Just wow.

Let’s be clear, the company is very confident of a successful sidetrack. George has stated in various interviews over the last year that he rates it as “high 90’s % chance of success.” Indeed, in 2 investor question responses on their website (see 15th June and 29th July 2021 answers), the company explains in detail why. Moreover, in the interview on LSE this very week he again indicates that all of the experts have looked at it – the company / lenders / potential bidders etc – all of whom you would assume would naturally take a look at it very cautiously - and they remain very confident of it being successful.

Yes, mistakes have definitely been made in the past. Angus got the timings badly wrong (just the 2 years late George!), and yes, they got the budget wrong (both massive understatements!), but we are where we are. Which is just weeks away now from first gas in an environment of sky rocketing gas prices.

The gas price and world circumstances have changed everything. Rip up the CPR as the gas price is 6 times higher now, and looking good to continue that way. All debt paid back by the end of the year. No-one saw this coming. The perfect storm of perfect storms.

Personally, I would rather George and the team “went it alone” now and not sell because the numbers are just fantastic. Just do the maths! (Yes, before you say it HeadInTheSand, even taking fully into account the 3 year hedge).

If I’m honest, I would have been content with 4p a share a few weeks ago, but now if an offer was announced on Monday morning at 4p a share I would be genuinely disappointed. When you look at where we are and what we have, my expectations have certainly increased. Hell, even the company’s biggest critic (HITS) is arguing a valuation much higher than this now (5p to 9p a share based on a successful sidetrack, which Angus states they have a confidence level of 90%+ of achieving).

I haven’t seen a single positive post over the last few months on this board about the share-for-share offer from Sound Energy, no matter what the offer price is. Shareholders aren’t stupid.
George, respectfully, please take note.
And just imagine if the gas numbers at Saltfleetby exceeded expectations. At today’s gas prices, the share price would go into orbit. It’s not out of the question either.

[jtidsbadly] 02/4/2022 11:08

Weebun: you can see from Anguish’s treatment of the potential liability implied by the hedges that these are enforceable contracts. You’ll find the terms of the Charges held by the Debenture holders against the assets of each of Angus Energy plc, Angus Energy Weald Basin No.3 and Saltfleetby Energy in their respective Companies House sites. Please come back and comment further when you’ve read them. Mercuria is not Anguish’s friendly neighbourhood bank. The Interim MD turned down the $20mm, he could have borrowed from one of these in the summer of 2020. These people are commodity traders. Angus was over a barrel when they negotiated the Debenture terms and received the consideration due to someone in that position.

[3put] 02/4/2022 11:01

"British fracking company Cuadrilla said a notice ordering it to plug and abandon two shale gas wells had been lifted"

I'm actually against it but it could be huge for us

[3put] 02/4/2022 10:57

LondonSouthEast ;

Posts: 207

Price: 1.15

No Opinion

London South East interview with George Lucan, MD at Angus EnergyToday 17:11

We were delighted to catch up with George Lucan, who hasn't been able to do many interviews lately because of the restrictions imposed by the Takeover Panel.

What he was able to say today was: "We are continuing to be in discussions with parties." And: "The one thing I can add is that as a board we have worked so hard for this we are not about to give this away for 'a song'. We will drive the hardest bargain that we can in this environment."

Furthermore, shareholders can expect 1.5M therms of gas to be produced from May, and a further 1.5 M therms from the sidetrack well in August (51% of which goes to #ANGS making them debt free by the year end)- and Brockham is to start producing again after a two year hiatus. Please view the interview here: 

[3put] 02/4/2022 10:57

3/4 weeks until first gas

[3put] 02/4/2022 10:56

If gas prices start to significantly rise as we are about to produce its going to go ballistic

[3put] 02/4/2022 10:56

"Trader Makes Lottery-Ticket Bet on U.S. Natural Gas Doubling to $10"

hxxps://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/trader-makes-lotteryticket-bet-on-us-natural-gas-doubling-to-10-2617844

[jtidsbadly] 02/4/2022 10:36

HITS: if one assumes that Anguish will succeed in getting the thing producing in time and at their forecast quantities, and that they go on to drill a sidetrack that produces an additional 5mmscfd by October, they will soon have exhausted their “tax losses”. Thereafter, they’ll presumably pay the standard 40% tax on revenues? If that’s the case, I have two questions:

1. How is Mercuria’s tax calculated on its 8% revenue royalty? Do they pay their own standard rate of corporation tax, leaving the higher tax rate on oil and gas for Anguish to pay? Or does Anguish pay its standard rate of tax on Mercuria’s 8% of revenue and pay them the net proceeds?

2. Do Angus pay the full UK tax rate on gas revenues on their hedged production? The hedges are purely financial contracts. Any profit Mercuria makes on them will be taxable to them at their standard rate for such things. Anguish are selling all their production to Shell, and it will all be taxable at the standard prevailing rate. This will make quite a large difference to their net profits, which I’m not sure is reflected in the forecasts I’m seeing on the other site.

[weebun] 02/4/2022 10:30

The only possible action that a bank private lender finance house or what ever can take is to put the default company’s in to receivership that means assets being sold in this cases probably by tender by the receiver.The company’s asset value in this case would be greatly increased because the hedge would be disregarded as a trading bet it is not a fixed asset over the three years the hedge could be literally anywhere.This means the fixed asset value of the two company’s after repayment of the loan and receiver expenses would be millions educated guess over 200 million.This leaves the question who are you and what could possibly be your agenda are you one or many why don’t you just call it a day.The facts are plain to see there is a great deal of collateral that the two companies plus the hedge are involved in why would they screw the all thing up with greed.You and possibly your friends are constantly trying to discredit this company and fortunately you are failing big time.

[headinthesand] 02/4/2022 08:06

The lack of understanding shown here by some is frankly scary. As is the ongoing mistake of viewing the gas field and ANGS as effectively the same thing (they categorically are not).

Weebun, if the sidetrack is unsuccessful, then ANGS at current gas pricing would have to pay Mercuria around £600k per month for 9 months from October. That would be the cost of shortfall when reconciling the monthly hedge swap contracts.

ANGS could not afford to do this. It would default on either the hedge or the loan - and it doesn't matter which, because Mercuria is both the principal party to the loan and sits on the other side of the hedge.

In that event, Mercuria and the lenders get ownership of the gas field, because ANGS has gone pop and the field has been put up as security. And that gas field on its own is now worth multiples of the £12 million lent against it.

I have said more than once before that Mercuria is the party that's done an absolutely blinding deal here. If the sidetrack is successful, it gets its £12 million loan back, plus around £2.5 million of interest, plus an 8% revenue override on all produced gas revenue from the field. That's just on the loan... far more significant is the fact that at current gas futures pricing, Mercuria is guaranteed a further £44 million between July 22 and June 23, on just the first year of the three year hedge - AND it's contractually owed that £44 million, utterly regardless of how much or how little gas the field may produce.

And if the sidetrack from well SF07 is unsuccessful like all 4 previous attempts to sidetrack from that well? Then Mercuria gets a ready to go gas field that's worth many tens of millions of pounds to do what it likes with. It's a complete win-win for Mercuria, come what may.

This really should not come as new news to anyone.

[markbarker] 02/4/2022 04:05

Jt you're the man

[3put] 02/4/2022 00:06

George Lucan, CEO, commented:

"The focus is now away from skid delivery to installation with the aim of having the site ready for commissioning during April and producing during May. The present gas price forward curve shows very high average prices of over 400 pence per therm for 2022.

In fact, gross production, of which we have a 51% share, solely from the existing wells and which is wholly unhedged for the month of June, is expected to yield 1.5 million therms or gross revenue of £7.2 million at today's forward price for that month alone.

Gross production solely from the side-track, should it be successful, is again wholly unhedged for the remainder of the year and is expected to yield a further 1.5 million therms each month of which Angus share is 51%.

The forward curve remains very high and seems likely to remain high this year and the company is more than anyone else acutely conscious of the need to preserve our timeline in order to provide value to shareholders whether through revenue sales or corporate action."

[3put] 02/4/2022 00:05

LondonSouthEast ;

Posts: 207

Price: 1.15

No Opinion

London South East interview with George Lucan, MD at Angus EnergyToday 17:11

We were delighted to catch up with George Lucan, who hasn't been able to do many interviews lately because of the restrictions imposed by the Takeover Panel.

What he was able to say today was: "We are continuing to be in discussions with parties." And: "The one thing I can add is that as a board we have worked so hard for this we are not about to give this away for 'a song'. We will drive the hardest bargain that we can in this environment."

Furthermore, shareholders can expect 1.5M therms of gas to be produced from May, and a further 1.5 M therms from the sidetrack well in August (51% of which goes to #ANGS making them debt free by the year end)- and Brockham is to start producing again after a two year hiatus. Please view the interview here: 

[3put] 02/4/2022 00:03

"Trader Makes Lottery-Ticket Bet on U.S. Natural Gas Doubling to $10"

hxxps://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/trader-makes-lotteryticket-bet-on-us-natural-gas-doubling-to-10-2617844

[jtidsbadly] 01/4/2022 22:09

Ultimate beneficial owner.

[jtidsbadly] 01/4/2022 21:45

1347: yes, this chap is the UBO. The corporate name is an odd coincidence, what?

[jtidsbadly] 01/4/2022 21:38

Weebun: you should listen to JA51. He knows what he’s talking about. “Angus going pop” as HITS puts it, means that if Angus fails to meet a payment due to its Lenders (who are commodity traders, there is no bank involved) then the Lenders can take over all of Angus’s assets. Under the terms of the loan, Angus can’t sell assets or borrow more money without the approval of the commodity traders who have lent them the money. As a condition of the loan, Angus also had to agree to the hedge terms imposed by the commodity traders. Failure by Angus to meet the hedge contracts’ terms is an event of default, just as failing to meet an interest payment or debt repayment is. And there's more: there is a floating rate element to the loan: the fixed rate is 12%. Angus has to pay in addition the overnight interest rate, currently about 0.7% and rising. But even this combined interest rate is less costly to Angus than the 8%-of-revenue royalty that applies once the loan is repaid. When the Interim MD in his naughty interview earlier this week used the term “in time” with regard to getting the plant completed, he was referring to the very real risk that Saltfleetby will not be producing gas in sufficient quantities to meet the hedge contract terms in July. If they can’t do so, Mercuria, the commodity trader which has lent most of the money and written the hedges, will have the right to take over all of Angus’s assets. Pop.

[1347] 01/4/2022 21:35

Weebun As you have been told by JA - there is no bank involved. Also the hedge is not a trade. Also Gas prices would need to fall below the contractual hedge price for Anguish to benefit, that will not happen next week and may not happen for some time. I suggest you might need to get more clued up before posting on here, or just stick to posting over in Kansas.

JT No it's nothing to do with ShareCoin Sanderson, at least as far as I can see, but jut a bit odd to buy and sell like that. I wonder if the shares are being lent out for nefarious reasons?

[weebun] 01/4/2022 20:54

The bank have a registered charge on the company.The hedge is a trade it could but not likely be negative for the hedge if circumstances change and gas prices fell next week.I repeat you can not register a trade on the companies deeds if Angus failed the hedge would be lost and at this precise time the value of the two companies would be worth a great deal

[ja51oiler] 01/4/2022 20:34

keep up weebun!
Mercuria who is on the other side of the hedge is also the lender! No bank involved. they hold part of the debenture secured on all Angus and SEL Assets along with Aleph and the Knowe for the £1.4 million CLN.
If Angus defaults they get the lot.... goose and all!