Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 18:58

1347: the changes seem to me to be so large that it should be looked at again by the EA. It’s a completely different application, isn’t it? As I understand it, noise meters will be put up on a number of nearby houses, presumably someone will turn up regularly to monitor these, so it could get stopped at any time. Maybe the EA will prefer to rely on that, noise seems to be the biggest concern. I don’t know about an extra generator closer to a well head though. Is it one of the producing wells?

I don’t know though. It’s possible. If the LCC planning permission isn't issued by 17 March, the EA’s stance could be a factor. Though that date could be a cuds invention.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 18:43

This, presumably, is what Gaffer is referring to (1 December 2021 RNS). I have filtered him, just looked at his post in case it was an apology:

“Whilst simultaneous drilling and commissioning operations are not considered to be safe, simultaneous drilling and production operations are manageable once the plant can evidence reliable and stable flow of sales gas and good functioning of all safety equipment. The Company is preparing for the requisite risk evaluation of a drilling programme commencing in April without disrupting production.”

They’re “preparing for the requisite risk evaluation”. Hardly the same as saying they can do it, surely? And is there any chance of that having started, do you think? No wonder the company is for sale before it’s got to first gas, what? They’ve still got that authority to issue more shares though. This week? And where’s the Report and Accounts?

[1347] 13/3/2022 18:38

JT Yes but the EA one went through a formal public consultation process so could that be invalidated and/or delayed is the salient point. As I've said before, I disregard what the latest manifestation of multi-cud and/or Adrian posts over in Kansas, it's just noise. One thing is sure, without that EA permit nothing will progress to production anyway, regardless of what does or does not happen on the 17th March at LCC.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 18:26

Sorry, that was 1347’s post I was referring to.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 18:25

JA51: I posted that before I saw your latest post. Yes, the new plans are completely different from the earlier ones. Things are taller, wider, there’s more of them, they’re in different places, probably noisier and a number are completely new. These applications are complicated, there’s lots of separate reports and guidelines from different regulators to consider, and this is far from the only application the LCC planning people are looking at simultaneously. It’s not surprising that it’s taking all this time, is it? Is cuds correct in saying that he’s been told that a planning decision will be given by 17 March?

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 18:14

JA51: this is from the LCC planning permission for the sidetrack dated 8 June 2021. This application was lodged only on 11 May. This snippet concerns the duration of the work. You’ve doubtless seen it before but it bears repeating:

“It is acknowledged that as a consequence of the height of the drill rig superstructure and the need for 24 hours operations the development is likely to have significant effects locally in terms of light, noise, ecology and visual impact. However, the side track drilling (Phase 2) would be from an existing well and therefore this would foreshorten the period of drilling operations and would only be temporary in nature i.e. over a period of approximately 8 weeks. On removal of the main drill rig, the appraisal period would be commence, with the introduction of a small workover rig (Phase 5) and well test equipment, the timescales again would be temporary and scheduled for a period of three weeks. In respect of the appraisal the operations would be largely screened from external views insofar as the site benefits from mature landscaping planting to the boundary of the site provides some amelioration at ground level up to nine metres. The landscape planting together with soil bunds would significantly reduce noise impacts beyond the boundary of the site. During all six phases of the proposal and over a period of 16 weeks in total, there would be an increase in HGV movements that would access/egress the site. This would be via a prescribed route and restricted to daytimes only.”

So, 11 weeks for drilling and subsequent appraisal with a workover rig. The remaining 5 weeks are for the remaining 4 phases of the sidetrack. They are not defined. Perhaps they can be done while the drilling is going on. If this is the case, and assuming no delays, and a start at the end of June, it might be possible to complete the sidetrack by the end of September - just. Though I imagine that the HSE and NG would want to come and give it their seal of approval. It’s tight, isn’t it?

[1347] 13/3/2022 17:47

Not sure whether this has already been covered or not but what do we make of the generators moving on the revised Production Layout Plan and that they are now closer to the well heads? There are also now 4 of them rather than 3 as before.

This fairly late change to the layout also means that the plans as submitted to the EA would no longer be in line with the latest plans, as they only changed after the consultation finished. Could this invalidate the EA assesment and consultation process and/or may mean it needs to be re-done, regardless of what LCC do?

[ja51oiler] 13/3/2022 15:58

As for answering your straightforward question. The planning officer obviously thought it's going to be 16 weeks as confirmed in the report she compiled approving it!........ As Angus has never once been correct with any timeline it's quite difficult to actually say. JT gave you the information but you chose to ignore it!

Strange that you think they have said they can drill while producing and yet you seem in the dark as to how long they have said it will take!!

[ja51oiler] 13/3/2022 15:50

Actually, they haven't gaffer. They have said they hope they can!

Happy for you to post a link to confirm what you say though!

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 15:29

Gaffer: you’ve just had a summary of all that is known on the topic, from two posters. As for the Interim M.D.’s saying they can do a sidetrack while piping gas from nearby wells, he said they had a lot more work to do on that.

I can’t be bothered with someone who considers it appropriate to reply in such terms to people who’ve taken the time to give him the information he was seeking. I think you’re a time-waster and am filtering you again.

[gaffer73] 13/3/2022 15:22

I take it nobody has a straight forward answer to my simple question then. I'll have a dig about. JA they have said they can drill while producing.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 13:43

You’re famous on their site JA51! They prefer a little more deference, what? )

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 13:25

Their estimate for plugging the Kimmeridge and a perforation of the Portland at Brockham is 66 days. Is that also an exaggeration? It’s all fraught with possibilities and may explain their seeking bids.

[ja51oiler] 13/3/2022 13:24

With regards to drilling the sidetrack whilst producing. We don't know the answer to that, do we?

He definitely said in one of the investor presentations that they would get it up and running then "take a couple of months off to do the sidetrack" It was the one where Yanis asked a lot of questions! Perhaps he should submit another question to the Q&A for them to ignore! They haven't put his hedge question up yet, have they!

Before you ask gaffer they don't put any questions I ask up!!

[ja51oiler] 13/3/2022 13:12

Yes, it really was a bit rich for him to say 10 mins on the internet would have told anyone it wasn't going to take 16 weeks. Especially given the company's own record when it comes to drilling! Just look how long the truth took to come out at both Lidsey and Brockham!......16 weeks seemed/seems about right if you base it on those performances...Even the 7-day test at Balcombe finished in failure in the end as they ran out of time!

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2022 13:02

JA51: following the Interim MD’s deplorable fit of the vapours over the issue, he came up with 5-6 weeks for the sidetrack, of which 20 days was for drilling. Though he hedged it round with provisos, so it could take much longer. The misleading AECOM information was, he said, what all drillers do - over-estimate the time to be taken.

He also said the sidetrack will start “a few weeks after” a steady rate of gas flow has been achieved. He said it was “feasible̶1; to drill a sidetrack while piping gas from a nearby well but but that this would require a lot more work on their part to find out. There’s been no update on the sidetrack, apart from the delay, since then (last October). They were still missing an indispensable part of the drilling rig when we last heard.

So, the final bits of kit for Poundland itself are due at the end of April. Assume two weeks to get them installed and everything ready for NG and HSE inspection. Allow a month for their approvals. That’s mid-June. Then a week or so(?) to regulate the gas flow to the required pressure. That’s the third of fourth week in June. So the sidetrack at end-June or early July. It may come down to the debt payment schedule, which will be in the Facilities Agreement - to which we don’t have access, though the six firms in the data room do.

[ja51oiler] 13/3/2022 11:58

You are joking, right?......16 weeks according to their AECOM planning application.....But it gets better... they threw a tizzy fit on the Q&A claiming this was False information....only to have it pointed out to them it came from their own application information!!

[gaffer73] 13/3/2022 10:44

Anyone know how long the sidetrack will take? Have Angus stated it anywhere?

[iceagefarmer] 13/3/2022 06:51

timelines dont matter...shell is coming for this baby £££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££

[3put] 12/3/2022 21:23

1347, for the balance did you work out the projected revenue? I will not hold my breath

[3put] 12/3/2022 21:22

They've done 15% in two weeks? - Thanks Gaffer.

[1347] 12/3/2022 20:59

Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end

[jtidsbadly] 12/3/2022 20:22

Gaffer: this will be my final post on the subject, for now at least. They started work six weeks ago on the welding. It was supposed to take eight weeks or so, working continuously, starting in early January and finishing at the end of February (30 November 2021 update). I’m assuming that that is what’s happened, though four weeks later than scheduled, but was surprised to see in the 10 March RNS that the pipework was just 15% complete. The wording is ambiguous, as so often with the author. What do you think it means?

[1347] 12/3/2022 19:56

When you're strange
Shills come out of the rain
When you're strange
No one remembers your name
When you're strange
When you're strange
When you're strange..