Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sincero1] 05/11/2021 15:25

yawn... always negative supposition from the resident grey old disingenuous dads army ..yawn....and will continue all weekend ...yawn .....

[headinthesand] 05/11/2021 14:48

I'm always on the side of the angels when it comes to PF, 1347. Gilmour can do no wrong in my book. Waters on the other hand has always been seriously up himself and pretentious in the extreme.

[1347] 05/11/2021 14:25

HITS Yes, the leftie who wrote it is a bit of a hypocrite though isn't he.

[jtidsbadly] 05/11/2021 12:53

1347: yes, it’s impossible to know their intentions but it amounts to the same thing - there won't be any money in this for the shareholders. If there’s an event of default in the summer next year, the Lenders will be in a position to dictate whatever terms they want. The share price will take a bath.

4p might be a possibility in the event of a 1 for 100 share consolidation. Possibly. Not today, though. It’s clearly going to take a further while for the penny to drop.

[1347] 05/11/2021 12:19

JT Yes but as I said the first tier placees will merely be flippers, well most of them I expect to be, and the second tier will be the rainbow chasers who won't care or understand about that sort of stuff.

I'm unsure whether the lenders's intentions are to squeeze as much value out of Poundland via interest, fees, royalties, equity kickbacks, warrants etc. or whether they actually want to seize control. I suspect in the case of Mercuria the former but not so sure about the recent pop up Aleph.

No I don't see how they generate sufficient revenue to cover the first loan repayment without a further fund raise. My money is still on a deferment, with compensation of course a la Knowe.

Pipework I know little about but their track record for execution does leave rather a lot to be desired doesn't it.

Are we still on track for 4p by close of play today?

[jtidsbadly] 05/11/2021 11:41

1347: there’s a decent post by WG818 there this morning. I agree with him, that pipework is rather complex, there’s plenty of scope for them to get that wrong. And their ability to start it, as he points out, depends on the regulatory bodies passing it on the nod - it being quite different from their earlier applications. It was supposed to have been completed in September. It will be wet and cold in NE Lincolnshire now. Look at how long the 3-week pipeline took at this time last year. They certainly won’t be able to build it while doing a sidetrack.

And what will placees be buying? Shares in a holding company whose operating company remains 75%+ owned by the Lenders. It wouldn’t make sense to me. The Lenders will retain their right to take over the assets. If they do so, the shareholders get nothing. If they don’t, it will probably be something to do with avoiding eventual abandonment liabilities. The charges are there for a reason. I think it’s quite likely that Anguish will earn insufficient money by May/June to meet the interest and repayment terms. That will constitute an event of default and put Anguish and its assets in the hands of the Lenders.

[headinthesand] 05/11/2021 10:40

This is a brutally simple situation.

It pretty much all comes down to...

How much credibility are people going to give ANGS's latest set of prognostications?

Yes, sure, if when up and running, Poundland consistently flows at Jul 2015-Jun 2016 levels, rather than Jul 2016-Jun 2017 levels (as ANGS has said it hopes to be the case), then this would indeed cover any hedged volumes.

And yes, sure, if drilled successfully, a sidetrack doubles produceable volumes (as ANGS has said it hopes to be the case), then things would be better still.

The above goes without saying... but of course if hopes were horses, beggars would ride.

As I've commented before, "Because George said so!" doesn't strike me as a particularly firm footing upon which to base any investment - and from the marked lack of interest since ANGS's recent announcements, it looks like the market shares these substantial reservations about the company's credibility.

My own much warier view is primarily predicated on three things:

1. ANGS's literally undeviating record of proving to be majorly inaccurate on any forecast, assurance, estimate, prediction, promise or projection it has ever issued so far.

2. The official OGA figures showing average production volumes and trends out of Poundland over the last 4 year period of its being in operation (and entirely leaving aside those last months of production where Theddlethorpe had its problems).

3. WinGas happily agreeing to pass Poundland over to ANGS and actually giving them £2.75m to take it on.

Needless to say, the actual reality of things will only become apparent when we get to see how much gas and by when. And not before.

[jtidsbadly] 05/11/2021 00:34

Presumably, if they do another equity issue, they’ll have to point out to investors that their operating company, AEWB No.3 Limited, which holds their assets and employs their staff, is held as to 75%+ by Law Debenture on behalf of the Lenders? Any such prospective share placees might therefore wonder what it is exactly that they would be getting for their money.

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 21:05

Thanks, 1347.

[1347] 04/11/2021 20:33

JT It's no good asking HITS he doesn't know his Floyd from his Ford. According to Wingas as at October 2012 two wells on the Western part of the field and one on
the southern structure are able to produce. Due to the production of free water, the
remaining wells are shut-in.

So from October 2012 to December 2017 these producing wells were L47/16-5 (SF02), L47/16-7 (SF04) and L47/16-12X (SF08x). However I don't think SF08x actually went into production, or if it did at least not for long and it's now being looked at as a Geothermal well. Two more wells were drilled post October 2012, SF7z and SF7y, but these were abandoned. So for me just two wells were producing in the latter part of the Wingas tenure.

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 19:14

HITS: excuse my not looking this up for myself, but how many wells were in production during the periods you and he are quoting?

Yes, I know you’re insistent on the “by when” as well as the “how much”. These chumps on the other site aren’t, though, are they? PeterAshbeck seems to ignore it completely. To rely on any timescale produced by Anguish is very naive indeed. Has he read the charges? Does he understand hedge contracts? Has he any experience of getting regulatory approvals? If they can get 10mm/day by the end of March at current prices, this may have a future. Good luck with that. Anguish seem to me already to be preparing the ground for another delay to the start date.

[1347] 04/11/2021 18:34

JT - Mere detail old boy, 4 p by Friday I'm assured, the lunatics have to be right one day surely, as HITS points out, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

[headinthesand] 04/11/2021 18:30

JTids, it is indeed only about both "how much?" and "by when?" (You may have noticed my mentioning those two dead simple but rather pertinent questions on occasion before now).

And yes I have noted that Mr £900m/annum (who I believe to be a genuine PI, btw) is making the common mistake of taking anything that ANGS says as gospel truth.

Okay sure, even a broken watch is (briefly) right twice a day - but history has repeatedly and invariably shown that believing in ANGS's prognostications invariably disappoints. Relying on "Because George said so!" has very obviously been no passport to success.

Here's the ANGS "money quote" by which so much store is apparently being set:-

"it was the view of technical experts that, following a prolonged shut-in, the two wells should have improved deliverability in the first 18 months or so of operations..."


Unfortunately those with rose-tinted blinkers on are incapable of spotting the import of words such as "...the view of..." and "...should have..." Which is a little tragic, but there you go.

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 18:11

like I said , we have more than our fair share..

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 18:08

HITS: I see Mr. £900mm/annum is forecasting a successful sidetrack and a 6mm. gas flow. But it’s not just about the volume of gas, is it? It’s about when will it start? They need £3mm. by end-May for the capital repayment (possibly more) and another £1.44 in interest. We now know they have to maintain a large liquid sum from the loan proceeds at all times. Yes, the gas price has leapt, but that just makes it a more attractive potential acquisition for the Lenders at a time when it looks as if they’ll be able to acquire it under the terms of the charges. And the kit is very far from being in place. They haven’t apparently even started the groundworks (forecast for July, then August, when it was dry and sunny) or the pipework (September). The gas pipeline hasn’t been completed. They don’t seem to know where the bit that goes on top of the rig for the sidetrack has got to, never mind when to drill when/if it turns up. If the thing was genuinely commercial under Wingas’s ownership, why did they give Anguish £2.5mm to take it off their hands? One suspects that Wingas, after years of running the thing, know more about it than do the Lenders (the rise in gas prices post-dates the Loan and if the expectation of high gas prices explains the Lenders’ involvement, with the hedge terms they really nailed Angus’s hide to the wall, what?). And what about the water cut? Then they’re discussing revenue, not cash flow/profit. There will be in excess of £2.5mm. of direct Anguish running expenses, as well as the Loan costs above. And, as has been pointed out, SEL have a 49% share in it.

To keep it out of the Lenders’ hands, Anguish are likely to have to raise a lot of fresh equity capital. Maybe the poor mug shareholders will put it up, who knows? Average down. Top Up. I know the Board will be very grateful if they do. The Lenders may not care much either way (though they won’t like the dilution, so expect some supply from that source long before it is mooted). They’ve got those hedges, which appear likely to be quite remunerative, and the royalty. The shareholders face more cash calls, huge dilution and no dividends at all - or the total loss of their investment. Even if the shareholders do come to the Board’s rescue again, they won’t make any money out of it - the hedges apply for virtually the length of time that decent volumes of gas are expected and the kit doesn’t apparently allow them to produce more than 10mm/day. After 4 years, production starts to drop over a cliff, what? At which point, would the shareholders be approached for £15mm+ for a geothermal bonanza?

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 17:45

hits - there are loons everywhere...unfortunately we seem to have more than our fair share here....

[headinthesand] 04/11/2021 14:29

Sincero that's a fair point.

However, in my defence, it's actually been ANGS's relentless litany of undeviating failure to deliver on any of its promises, assurances, estimates, forecasts or projections whatsoever that's in some not small part led me to become a much better researched and warier investor in any stock these days.

It's also because these days I am a considerably better researched investor that I set my bail-out point on ANGS where I did (and I remain both delighted and relieved that I did so and escaped the ANGS lobsterpot).

Yes I appreciate that, having already invested a few grand months beforehand, this was shutting the door after the horse had bolted, but still. Fortunately, coming to the realisation that one cannot rely on literally anything at all stated by an AIM-listed company (including information released via RNS) only cost me shy of £1.5k - because the punt I'd taken only totalled a few thou.

But if one is to believe some of the loonies next door (which okay is always a bit of an ask, given the amount of fake IDs over there), some of them have allegedly ploughed in substantial five and six figure sums without doing any research or making any attempt to truth-test whatever latest line ANGS is spinning? And (again allegedly) they're still adding more in the same vein?

With that level of cash allegedly on the line, I find that type of behaviour frankly lunatic.

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 13:28

hits - i saw your post on the other site "What the heck basis do you apparently invest on then? Blind faith and unquestioningly believing what a company wanting your money chooses to tell you? Without checking and doing your own research to verify claims???
Just bizarre - but hey, each to their own, I suppose..."

remind me , you lost money on angs right ? ...now now ..count to ten , deep breath before replying ..... i'm just joshing ... kind of ...

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 09:53

old grey nobody 13reallneedsahobby47cptmainwaring claims to only post negatively on shares he is losing money on ... so that's angs, avct, bmn, ujo , ukog , vast , tils , odx, dmtr ..so he is either really rubbish at share dealing or a duplicitous charlatan ....

[1347] 04/11/2021 09:32

JT - £2.5 m but only with the side track, is that part of a big dipper as it seems to do a 360 degree?

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 09:21

i see the resident grey old disingenuous window lickers are posting, as usual, healthy dollops of negative supposition ... why are they so scared ?

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 08:29

1347: yes, quite. I’d pay £1 and queue, at this time of the year, to see Poundland (under water) from a nice Ferris wheel built on some dry land at Saltfleet or somewhere. All those chaps in waterproofs trying to dig holes and put things in them while they keep filling up with water. “Why didn’t they hire us to do this last summer, when it was dry and we could see what we were doing?” “Is this in the right place?” “I keep stubbing my toe on something or other over there. What’s it for, anyway?”. They’ll end up having to use an offshore rig if they want to get to the gas before next summer, what? “And a nice baked spud would go down a treat.” “Yes, and that’s about as close to a spud as we’re going to get here”. And wait until it freezes..

Oh, and it was £2.5mm/day. Let’s not talk it down.

[1347] 04/11/2021 07:59

JT: Some serious bagging? Are we back to those potatoes again? Maybe that's how they get the revenue to £1 million per day?

Or maybe that ferris wheel on the rig will do the trick? 'Only a pound to see Poundland, roll up, roll up, step this way'.

Still don't know why they need a special rig part all the way from the USA otherwise.

[jtidsbadly] 03/11/2021 22:54

1347: either that or this is going to do some serious bagging, what?

It’s going to be very late. The Lenders will be able to exercise their rights under the loan agreement/charges.