Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 01/11/2021 17:26

1347: and if you’re right and it’s May, they won’t have enough cash flow to service the loan on time. We don’t know how the Lenders will feel about that.

[1347] 01/11/2021 17:09

JT Oh yes for sure the HSE will decide what can (and in some cases must) and what can't be done, that's why Lucan was blathering on about HAZOPS etc. I've always felt myself that any SIMOPS would be limited in scope and I doubt it would include the actual drilling part, especially a re-perforation. Still we await the detailed plans on that score, so lets see shall we. Anything that speeds it up is fine by me as it shortens the time to the spring tide.

They said they would be mobilising the rig in October and I posted a bit back that I thought they'd missed the window of opportunity to drill the sidetrack before first gas in February (which will be May in my view). So essentially they've painted themselves into a corner, either push back first gas or have a pause later for the drill.

I note that in Kansas they think it's all hunky dory as even without the sidetrack they reckon they can get 5 MMSCFD as a worst case. Personally I don't buy that at all, other than for a short period after PBU, it goes against the production profile and decline rates thus far. So again let's see shall we, if the 5 or 10 MMSCFD narrative helps a larger spring tide then it's fine by me.

[jtidsbadly] 01/11/2021 16:51

1347: I suppose the HSE may have a say in that. And how will they feel about Anguish’s decision not to conduct a well test? Does one sense a whiff of further delays?

[1347] 01/11/2021 11:01

So that's a no then...

[jtidsbadly] 01/11/2021 10:33

This is what I noticed:

“C. We believe that simultaneous operations are feasible on this site but we do need to do much more work on how such operations would be conducted.”

This is the answer to whether they can do the sidetrack and build the plant simultaneously.

[1347] 01/11/2021 10:10

One thing people seem to be overlooking is how well the existing wells will actually flow given that they have been shut in for several years. Do they need to re-perforate them?

[sincero1] 01/11/2021 10:09

hits - of course you are correct and i agree it's a wait and see... but the board will obviously be better informed than us ..therefore their growing confidence must be seen as a generally positive thing ...

[headinthesand] 01/11/2021 09:54

Sincero, I'm getting equally bored of saying that:-

It is undeniable that the company has expressed improved confidence in the sidetrack.

(which is not the same thing as the sidetrack categorically now being more likely to succeed. I mean, what else was ANG going to say about it?).

Especially given that to my mind, it's now pretty much confirmed that the sidetrack absolutely needs to be successful in order for hedged volumes to be met (at least from Oct 2022 onwards).

As ever, wait and see then. How much gas and by when?

[1347] 01/11/2021 08:36

Investor questions 'answered'. Still laughing at the 'finger in the air' answer. Sums this lot up.

They also seem clueless on the delivery times of equipment:

"As noted in a recent RNS, timing of the sidetrack is dependent on out of country machinery making safe passage into the UK. We will update as soon as we are made aware of likely timelines."

So not even aware of likely timelines? Wouldn't you get an estimate or indication for shipping times and port clearance when you ordered it? This is kids stuff.

[chickbait] 01/11/2021 00:06

Lemmings lol ...

[goforgold1] 31/10/2021 17:49

Does look like your getting in near bottom . If your willing to hold for say 3 months could be a good reward for investors . IMHO

[goforgold1] 31/10/2021 17:47

Interesting share this fully funded . To production . Revenues have risen as well . They have institutions involved as well which is good . Raised money at .6p as well . I need to find out exactly how many warrants they have given out . In summary the Report estimates production giving rise to gross field revenues, before costs etc on a mid-case basis of GBP230 million (previously GBP141 million) of which Angus's share is 51%. This approximates to a gas price of 64p/therm being a mix of the actual volumes already hedged at 43p/therm and the remaining unhedged volumes accorded prices derived from the quoted and traded NBP forward curve to December 2026 and thereafter escalated by 1.5% per annum. The gross volume of reported Gas Reserves is unchanged.

[goforgold1] 31/10/2021 17:09

A lot of warrants exercisable at 1.2p 7.5 million Further Equity PlacingAngus is pleased to announce that WH Ireland Limited has, further to the Placing announced on 27 January 2021 and to satisfy additional demand, conditionally placed on behalf of the Company a further 15,000,000 new ordinary shares in the Company (the "Further Placing Shares") at a price of 1 pence per share to raise gross proceeds of GBP150,000 (the "Placing"). The Further Placing Shares were also accompanied by the issue of one warrant to subscribe for one ordinary share in the Company for each Further Placing Share (the "Further Placing Warrants"). When issued, the Further Placing Warrants will be exercisable at any time, for a period of 2 years, from the date of admission of the Further Placing Shares at the following exercise prices: 50% at 1.2p; 25% at 1.35p and 25% at 1.5p

[jtidsbadly] 30/10/2021 23:39

Poor Cudswallop’s getting a bit of a mauling on the other site.

[jtidsbadly] 29/10/2021 20:10

1347: the royalty is forecast to give them a much higher return, and for longer, than the interest payments. The accelerated repayment provisions, assuming they gas flows as predicted in the new CPR and the price is as forecast, ensure that the loan is, in effect, repaid after the first year. It seems usurious. All this for the use of the Lenders’ money for one year! One can only assume no one else was remotely interested. I don’t think any of us expects the returns to the Lenders to be anything like those predicted in the CPR though.

[jtidsbadly] 29/10/2021 19:04

1347: that’s AIM for you, what? Find something vaguely plausible which the PR people, NoMads etc. can puff to unwitting small investors in their greedy, gullible droves and you’re all quids in. A 1-2% chance of striking it big, but a virtually guaranteed nice living wage for doing not very much for years and years. You can see hints of it in those small smirks that creep across their faces during so many of those PR interviews. Keep the small investors interested with shills etc. recording their belief in “averaging down”, “topping up” “you haven’t got a loss until you sell it”. They lap it up and repeat it back on the chat boards. It’s the dodgiest market I’ve come across and I had some interests in the Perth market some years ago (I’d have seen Mr. Lenigas coming). Should these small investors be protected from themselves? Or is the Darwinian process to continue unmolested? I think clear untruths, promises made that will never be kept, dodgy accounting, insider deals, favours for friends etc. should be exposed and prosecuted. Examples should be made of some of the most egregious offenders.

[3put] 29/10/2021 18:55

Expensive winter coming

[3put] 29/10/2021 18:54

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[jtidsbadly] 29/10/2021 18:47

1347: I’ve had a closer look at the cash flow tables, after reading your post. The repayment figures relate to their forecasts of revenues and profits, and the accelerated loan repayments which are now clearly a feature of the loan. So if revenues are much lower than forecast, which seems highly likely, those loan repayments will be much smaller in 2022. Anguish will still presumably be required to repay about 28.5% of the capital and 12% interest, though the royalty won’t apply in 2022. Those royalty payments are big, aren’t they? The loan will be repaid in 42 months but the royalties carry on at a higher rate than the interest on the repaid loan, for years! To say Anguish were over a barrel is an understatement. In view of how apparently usurious these loan terms are, it’s absolutely not credible that the big bank which the Interim MD said would have lent them the money if Anguish had needed $20mm+ would in truth have done so with this asset as security. I think he’d have got the bum’s rush. No wonder he’s trying to sue Gneiss! They seemed to offer the prospect of a loan on affordable terms.

[1347] 29/10/2021 18:34

JT The parrallels are quite close, except one is a miner and the other an oiler.

Old asset once owned by a Russian company
Inexperienced MD not that well acquainted with the actualité
Claims made about the time and cost to get the mine/field back in production
Repeated delays, cost overruns and problems occur
End up taking out large debt secured on the assets
Mercuria involved in the loan and offtake agreement
Zero revenue for a significant period resulting in repeated 'keep the lights on' placings to survive
Even when back in production struggle to produce enough to generate sufficient free cash and service the debt
To be continued.....

[jtidsbadly] 29/10/2021 18:07

Hits: that’s if they get that far. With lower prices, they’ll need to get the existing wells producing early and in good volume, to enable them to meet the loan terms.