Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 04/11/2021 18:34

JT - Mere detail old boy, 4 p by Friday I'm assured, the lunatics have to be right one day surely, as HITS points out, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

[headinthesand] 04/11/2021 18:30

JTids, it is indeed only about both "how much?" and "by when?" (You may have noticed my mentioning those two dead simple but rather pertinent questions on occasion before now).

And yes I have noted that Mr £900m/annum (who I believe to be a genuine PI, btw) is making the common mistake of taking anything that ANGS says as gospel truth.

Okay sure, even a broken watch is (briefly) right twice a day - but history has repeatedly and invariably shown that believing in ANGS's prognostications invariably disappoints. Relying on "Because George said so!" has very obviously been no passport to success.

Here's the ANGS "money quote" by which so much store is apparently being set:-

"it was the view of technical experts that, following a prolonged shut-in, the two wells should have improved deliverability in the first 18 months or so of operations..."


Unfortunately those with rose-tinted blinkers on are incapable of spotting the import of words such as "...the view of..." and "...should have..." Which is a little tragic, but there you go.

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 18:11

like I said , we have more than our fair share..

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 18:08

HITS: I see Mr. £900mm/annum is forecasting a successful sidetrack and a 6mm. gas flow. But it’s not just about the volume of gas, is it? It’s about when will it start? They need £3mm. by end-May for the capital repayment (possibly more) and another £1.44 in interest. We now know they have to maintain a large liquid sum from the loan proceeds at all times. Yes, the gas price has leapt, but that just makes it a more attractive potential acquisition for the Lenders at a time when it looks as if they’ll be able to acquire it under the terms of the charges. And the kit is very far from being in place. They haven’t apparently even started the groundworks (forecast for July, then August, when it was dry and sunny) or the pipework (September). The gas pipeline hasn’t been completed. They don’t seem to know where the bit that goes on top of the rig for the sidetrack has got to, never mind when to drill when/if it turns up. If the thing was genuinely commercial under Wingas’s ownership, why did they give Anguish £2.5mm to take it off their hands? One suspects that Wingas, after years of running the thing, know more about it than do the Lenders (the rise in gas prices post-dates the Loan and if the expectation of high gas prices explains the Lenders’ involvement, with the hedge terms they really nailed Angus’s hide to the wall, what?). And what about the water cut? Then they’re discussing revenue, not cash flow/profit. There will be in excess of £2.5mm. of direct Anguish running expenses, as well as the Loan costs above. And, as has been pointed out, SEL have a 49% share in it.

To keep it out of the Lenders’ hands, Anguish are likely to have to raise a lot of fresh equity capital. Maybe the poor mug shareholders will put it up, who knows? Average down. Top Up. I know the Board will be very grateful if they do. The Lenders may not care much either way (though they won’t like the dilution, so expect some supply from that source long before it is mooted). They’ve got those hedges, which appear likely to be quite remunerative, and the royalty. The shareholders face more cash calls, huge dilution and no dividends at all - or the total loss of their investment. Even if the shareholders do come to the Board’s rescue again, they won’t make any money out of it - the hedges apply for virtually the length of time that decent volumes of gas are expected and the kit doesn’t apparently allow them to produce more than 10mm/day. After 4 years, production starts to drop over a cliff, what? At which point, would the shareholders be approached for £15mm+ for a geothermal bonanza?

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 17:45

hits - there are loons everywhere...unfortunately we seem to have more than our fair share here....

[headinthesand] 04/11/2021 14:29

Sincero that's a fair point.

However, in my defence, it's actually been ANGS's relentless litany of undeviating failure to deliver on any of its promises, assurances, estimates, forecasts or projections whatsoever that's in some not small part led me to become a much better researched and warier investor in any stock these days.

It's also because these days I am a considerably better researched investor that I set my bail-out point on ANGS where I did (and I remain both delighted and relieved that I did so and escaped the ANGS lobsterpot).

Yes I appreciate that, having already invested a few grand months beforehand, this was shutting the door after the horse had bolted, but still. Fortunately, coming to the realisation that one cannot rely on literally anything at all stated by an AIM-listed company (including information released via RNS) only cost me shy of £1.5k - because the punt I'd taken only totalled a few thou.

But if one is to believe some of the loonies next door (which okay is always a bit of an ask, given the amount of fake IDs over there), some of them have allegedly ploughed in substantial five and six figure sums without doing any research or making any attempt to truth-test whatever latest line ANGS is spinning? And (again allegedly) they're still adding more in the same vein?

With that level of cash allegedly on the line, I find that type of behaviour frankly lunatic.

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 13:28

hits - i saw your post on the other site "What the heck basis do you apparently invest on then? Blind faith and unquestioningly believing what a company wanting your money chooses to tell you? Without checking and doing your own research to verify claims???
Just bizarre - but hey, each to their own, I suppose..."

remind me , you lost money on angs right ? ...now now ..count to ten , deep breath before replying ..... i'm just joshing ... kind of ...

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 09:53

old grey nobody 13reallneedsahobby47cptmainwaring claims to only post negatively on shares he is losing money on ... so that's angs, avct, bmn, ujo , ukog , vast , tils , odx, dmtr ..so he is either really rubbish at share dealing or a duplicitous charlatan ....

[1347] 04/11/2021 09:32

JT - £2.5 m but only with the side track, is that part of a big dipper as it seems to do a 360 degree?

[sincero1] 04/11/2021 09:21

i see the resident grey old disingenuous window lickers are posting, as usual, healthy dollops of negative supposition ... why are they so scared ?

[jtidsbadly] 04/11/2021 08:29

1347: yes, quite. I’d pay £1 and queue, at this time of the year, to see Poundland (under water) from a nice Ferris wheel built on some dry land at Saltfleet or somewhere. All those chaps in waterproofs trying to dig holes and put things in them while they keep filling up with water. “Why didn’t they hire us to do this last summer, when it was dry and we could see what we were doing?” “Is this in the right place?” “I keep stubbing my toe on something or other over there. What’s it for, anyway?”. They’ll end up having to use an offshore rig if they want to get to the gas before next summer, what? “And a nice baked spud would go down a treat.” “Yes, and that’s about as close to a spud as we’re going to get here”. And wait until it freezes..

Oh, and it was £2.5mm/day. Let’s not talk it down.

[1347] 04/11/2021 07:59

JT: Some serious bagging? Are we back to those potatoes again? Maybe that's how they get the revenue to £1 million per day?

Or maybe that ferris wheel on the rig will do the trick? 'Only a pound to see Poundland, roll up, roll up, step this way'.

Still don't know why they need a special rig part all the way from the USA otherwise.

[jtidsbadly] 03/11/2021 22:54

1347: either that or this is going to do some serious bagging, what?

It’s going to be very late. The Lenders will be able to exercise their rights under the loan agreement/charges.

[1347] 03/11/2021 20:20

Meanwhile over in Kansas I see this pearl of wisdom and analytical insight:

"I think that there is no risk to Angus in meeting their hedge requirements even without the sidetrack and that Saltfleetby will still be generating a revenue of £1 million a day in that circumstance. With the sidetrack, it will be £2,5 million per day."

No wonder people lose money on AIM, really should have paid more attention in Maths at school....

[1347] 03/11/2021 18:31

I see Spreadex still have almost 4%, why would a spread betting company take a position in Anguish Energy? Are they covering some large spreadbets?

[ja51oiler] 03/11/2021 18:16

Knowe new shares admitted.

Shares not in Public Hands

The total percentage of shares not in public hands is 15.0% defined as being beneficial holdings of shares held by shareholders holding above 10% and the directors holdings.

Shareholdings in Angus Energy of greater than 3% are as follows:
Name Percentage of Enlarged Share Capital
G.P (Jersey) Limited 9.66%
Knowe Properties Limited 7.33%
Spreadex Ltd 3.92%
JDA Consulting Limited 3.07%

[1347] 03/11/2021 17:18

I see in Kansas that the ocebot has been programmed back to extolling tax losses as a virtue, conveniently overlooking the fact that a 'value' company (Lucan's view) that makes year on year losses is a failing company.

[jtidsbadly] 03/11/2021 17:06

HITS: your interlocutors on the other site keep referring to Anguish having decided on the volume to be hedged. Someone should inform them that it was the Lenders who took this decision. When Anguish can’t meet the loan terms next May/June, why would the Lenders keep the current management in the style to which they’ve become accustomed?

[1347] 03/11/2021 15:47

Yes HITS I know it's likely to be just another can kick down the yellow brick road so they drag it out a while longer, but on the 3rd June 2021 they did state that:


"By making the full £12 million facility available immediately, Angus is able to bring forward plans for the side- track well, which would be fully funded from the facility, and increase production to the plateau rate sooner than expected."

Still when have they ever done what they said they would?

By the way, drilling isn't red or black, at least on AIM, there are lots of examples of 'well we missed the main target but it looks promising a few feet away' or 'we had a few problems but we think we can fix them' etc. This means more seismics and a side track and a placing or two and then round the loop they go.

Actually that's exactly what they did at Lidsey (new seismics indicate that...) and Brockham (water injection means that....).

However with the hedges having them over a barrel they won't have so much leeway with Poundland as it will be the lendors who decide what they want to do.

[headinthesand] 03/11/2021 15:35

1347, I can see a few discussion points revolving around drilling the sidetrack early or not.

1. Although next door they're now setting store by the latest "clear as mud" answer to an investor question as to whether the sidetrack can be drilled while production is occurring...

"C. We believe that simultaneous operations are feasible on this site but we do need to do much more work on how such operations would be conducted."

...I categorically do not believe this to be the case. The HSA more than any other body is not at all likely to allow this, and if it doesn't, then sidetrack drilling has the potential either to delay production start or (if it has started) to cause production to be suspended.

2. If George's optimistic projections about the sidetrack are accurate (and for George's projections, that'd be a first, but hey...), then drilling it as soon as possible would have the most positive overall effect. Yes there might be some loss of revenue in the short term if production start gets delayed, or production gets interrupted, but that would be outweighed by the ongoing mid-term increases in production volumes.

3. The other issue about drilling the sidetrack earlier is that doing so inevitably delivers a visible hard and fast result, one way or the other (as you'll know, sidetrack drilling is pretty much a digital yes/no, red/black thing). I'm not sure ANGS likes categoric visibility - it has always preferred to deal with the "could be's" and "should be's" as long as possible (cf. the long delays before being forced to drop the Brockham bombshell, or news of the extra £12 million being needed).

We still have no real idea of what the planned schedule for the sidetrack drilling attempt is....

[sincero1] 03/11/2021 14:41

hits - well i am sure you know the saying regarding opinions don't you ...

[headinthesand] 03/11/2021 14:12

1347, I agree. George's claim that the hedge was based on allegedly only "c. 70%" of a production projection that was itself already allegedly "conservative" looks more and more suspect.

To me it's blindingly obvious that ANGS is going to need that sidetrack to be successful and augmenting produceable volumes before Oct 2022. The interesting question remains: when to attempt it, sooner or later? That's very much a two-edged sword...

Sincero, I think you'll find I've already paid for the right to be allowed to express surprise at any perceived disconnect between the words emanating from George and the likely reality of things. Not that anyone needs to pay anything at all to have the right to express an opinion, but still...

[1347] 03/11/2021 13:55

HITS I do not believe Poundland will flow over 5 MMSCFD for any sustained period from the 2 existing wells, the data just doesn't support that. Using short term flow rates to big up performance is something Anguish and several other AIM Oilers have form for.