Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 17/10/2021 21:52

What are the views of managment on the value of the company given its current prospects? Asked on 21 September 2021
We have argued recently for a sum of the parts valuation of nearer 3.5 pence. That may seem ambitous but at current spot and forward gas prices the cash generating potential of Saltfleetby has been grossly underestimated merely by virtue of the lapse of time snce the last CPR was done on Saltfleetby in early 2020 when the gas price was near an historic low. We are still confident of restoring value to the oil assets after the drilling results at Lidsey in 2017 and Brockham in 2018/19 and the difficulties with planning permissions at Balcombe. This process continues unabated, albeit in a slow or sometimes difficult regulatory and planning environment. Finally we believe that our venture into geothermal will come to form the greater part of the Sum of the Parts of Angus in the future and will meet with a more enthusiastic response from all stakeholders – regulatory, planning, financing and others.

[3put] 17/10/2021 21:52

Some board posters are saying that a side track done in November would delay First Gas by up to 3 months. This sounds like nonsense. Can you comment? Asked on 21 September 2021
No it would emphatically not delay First Gas by three months. In fact there is no reason for it to delay First Gas by any material length of time and it is certainly not in the plan that it does. We are planning to execute the limited foundation work required beforehand and move heavy equipment in both before and after the drilling programme and will be following this week’s HAZOP with further SIMOP (Simultaneous Operations) planning which will allow for sensibly risked continuous working on the site during the programme. Again this poster may have misunderstood the nature of the equipment coming onto site, almost all of which is skid-mounted and pre-fabricated for immediate tie-in to the pipework and control lines. Thus some of the equipment won’t come on until February but none of the units will require on-site fabrication beyond connection work.

[3put] 17/10/2021 21:52

There has been much recent comment on the investment forums about how long the sidetrack would take to drill at Saltfleetby. Certain posters have claimed that they have internal company documents that say this will take 16 weeks. Please can you let me know if this is correct or if you expect it to take a different amount of time?

Also being speculated about is the volume of gas that has been hedged. It has been claimed that you have hedged 70% of 10mmscf/d and therefore the sidetrack has to be completed and everything has to run well for the project to be viable. Please could you confirm if this is correct or if the hedge is for different figures? Asked on 23 September 2021
We would be surprised and disappointed if the drilling part of the programme exceeded 28 days and the entire programme involved more than 7-10 days either side. On behalf of the Board, we have never heard or seen of any internal document which suggested we were planning for a 16 week side-track at Saltfleetby and we would challenge the poster to produce it. For that matter I haven’t heard of a drilling programme anywhere to these depths which could conceivably take 16 weeks – except perhaps on Mars, which is possibly where your poster hails from.

Supplementally, one poster has pointed out that the Planning Application allowed for 16 weeks time. This is not some “internal document” which the poster only had access to, but part of an application that is publicly available. Every company puts in their application for more time than is absolutely necessary in every sphere of life. This is hardly news. We reiterate drilling to these depths does not take 16 weeks as every reasoning investor in this industry knows.

The other assertion is equally bizarre and must be challenged. We have already clearly stated that the hedge was for “approximately 70% of the Company’s future gas sales …. under a conservative projection” and this was prudently set by the lenders, based, as we understand it, on their own estmates of achievable flow from the existing wells and excluding the contribution from the side track. Otherwise it would obviously not be a conservative projection.

[3put] 17/10/2021 21:52

From the telegram group - Where was this posted originally?

I have just checked your planning statement on slide 13, It states the sidetrack duration will take up to 16 weeks as mentioned from another poster. Please could you clear this query up once and for all. Asked on 1 October 2021
As now already noted, all applicants for permits and permissions in any walk of life give themselves much more time to complete a task than is necessary. This is because of the length of time and the cost incurred in obtaining the permission in the first place. They will then advise to market, at commencement of operations, a shorter period and expect to come in on the short end of that.

Reabold for instance advised six to ten weeks for drilling the West Newton WNB1 and completed in 6 weeks before moving onto the sidetrack. This was drilled to 2250 m. We are side-tracking from about 1150m to a Measured Depth (including horizontal sections) of about 3000m or 1850 metres of drilling. Nor are we doing a well test which might extend the programme, because we are moving straight from drilling into production here, so there is no need for a well test.

The hardest rock in Europe gives a rate of penetration of about 3m/hour (see page 6 of hxxps://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/pdf/IGAstandard/SGW/2017/Baujard.pdf). That would imply 600 hours here or 25 days/3-4 weeks of continuous drilling. Even assuming the drilling was no more than half of the time advised, then to drill through this much granite would be only be 7 or 8 weeks.

Granite of course wears drill bits faster and there is much changing of drilling equipment when addressing such hard rock. We are not drilling through granite in Cornwall or Scotland but through sandstones, clays, coals and limestones in Lincolnshire. We anticipate 20 odd days of 24/7 drilling – so a rate of penetration of over 12m/hour (verify by page 29 of Halco’s helpful graphs on rates of penetration hxxps://www.halco.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/A-Z-Drilling.pdf). Of course drilling is not the only workstream here, and even if we were to more than double the time, to suggest five to six weeks of work, we would actually expect the rig to be down inside that envelope. Things can go wrong and extend the timetable – we have always been frank about that – but this is a reasonable verifiable estimate.

What disturbs me about assertions by this poster (and concert parties) – and they are hardly the first instances of obvious falsheoods deliberately spread – is that he holds himself out to be a knowledgeable investor and could have fact checked any of this with online sources in a matter of minutes. Worse still by claiming to have discovered an “internal̶1; company document he implies some great conspiracy by the Company and its Board, rather than sharing his source from the outset and pointing to the very obvious conclusion here: that people give themselves ample leeway in any official permission!

[1347] 17/10/2021 21:51

JT So is having 90% of your 'investment' wiped out by disingenous incompetents. There's no need for it anyway, hamster replacement or not.

[3put] 17/10/2021 21:48

Lovely day golfing at Gleneagles. We should see a steady rise as first gas gets closer

[jtidsbadly] 17/10/2021 20:33

CQ: “in the event that the Board should want to consider the appointment of an alternative part-time Interim Managing Director with no oil or gas experience, my hamster, George, would like to put his name forward for your consideration. His CV to date includes no finance experience, which, combined with his lack of any other relevant qualification, he considers qualifies him uniquely for the role”.

[clottedq] 17/10/2021 20:09

My Son assures me his hamster will work as CEO for FREE so long as we feed and water him regularly...

Just think of the cost savings! Only issue is hamsters don't live too long... his post may have to be "temporary" - now where have I heard that before?

I wonder if I should propose this as an option on the Anguish Q & A?

CQ ;-)

[jtidsbadly] 17/10/2021 20:01

1347: “rats” is a bit harsh. Still, once he’s been replaced by the bloke’s hamster, there will be no scope for any “lordship stuff”. He’ll be scanning the sits vac columns again. Or he could get parachuted into another AIM wheeze, where financial acumen is at a premium, what?

[1347] 17/10/2021 18:30

Hamsters replacing rats? Hopefully it'll also put a stop to JT's fawning lordship stuff.

[jtidsbadly] 17/10/2021 18:09

CQ: if he gets the job here, he’ll be a champagne hamster in no time..

[clottedq] 17/10/2021 17:32

JT,

LOL!

Bloody hamsters they're going to rule the world one day... although - thinking about it - we could see a marked improvement - especially invested here in Anguish?

Probably cheaper than Lucan too I expect!

CQ ;-)

[jtidsbadly] 17/10/2021 17:22

CQ: the Lenders may take the same view. If His Lordship fails to generate enough cash to meet his commitments next June, the Mercuria CEO’s son’s hamster could get the opportunity. Meet the new boss...

[clottedq] 17/10/2021 16:44

1347...

No sign of a rig as far as I'm aware & no update from the BOD either = Good old Anguish up to their usual tricks...

I would have far more confidence of actual delivery to deadline here, if we made my son's pet hamster CEO!

CQ ;-)

[1347] 17/10/2021 14:17

2nd August 2021:

Target mobilisation of rig is slated for first week in October. Should suppliers indicate potential delays, whether Covid-19 related or otherwise, the Board will consider a deferral of the side track until end of March 2022 if those delays would in any way cause consequent delay to commissioning of the process plant. This would be to ensure that Angus and partners benefit from the very tight pricing environment indicated by UK National Balancing Point forward gas prices for January, February and March 2022. The Board will advise in due course should this become the case.

11th August 2021:

Tendering for the side track is complete and bids are presently being evaluated.

17th October 2021:

???

[bionicdog] 17/10/2021 10:43

Bit quieter this weekend than last.

[clottedq] 16/10/2021 17:40

Well my "one week" estimate was out by about 6 days... looks like CouldA's already starting to foam at the mouth and across his keyboard over on the B Channel...

The poor lad just can't help himself... he's clearly obsessed and in need of a decent hobby... or a girlfriend... or preferably both!

CQ ;-)

[headinthesand] 16/10/2021 16:21

I think this latest iteration of the Cuddles' Kansas ID is currently being manned by someone a little less linguistically challenged than the usual moron - though its true colours are definitely already starting to show through (the poor lamb just can't help itself).

So it won't be long before we have a full incoherent, swivel-eyed and mouth-foaming meltdown.

I'm prepared to wager a whole five pounds sterling that the current intern manning the weekend boiler room keyboard shift is none other than the not at all missed UniversalJustice9, resurrected for the umpteenth time next door. It's a recognisable tone thing...

[jtidsbadly] 16/10/2021 14:51

A rather dim post from Crocqman on the other site.

Meanwhile, Cudswallop appears to have breached my copyright with his latest Twitter cut and paste.. I’m not sure why he’s done it, it seems to me part of a well argued post, what?

[3put] 15/10/2021 19:43

Should see a steady rise as first gas gets closer. Tick tock

[clottedq] 15/10/2021 18:25

Loving the NEW "considerate" tone of EchDelta (WhoCares aka CouldA aka Foth) over on the B Channel... obviously hoping not to get rumbled too quickly - before his post tally gets into the hundreds (AGAIN!)

No problem... as he'll lose his head (like he always does) and then everybody will recognise his all too familiar manic ramblings again... don't worry.

Let's see how long it takes... I give him a week! He might even beat the next placing?

CQ ;-)

[jtidsbadly] 15/10/2021 15:22

HITS: I’ve said on a few occasions that this will prove a successful investment if they can supply gas to Shell next February or even March, at the rates forecast in the CPR and within budget. If they can also drill a successful sidetrack promptly, and if gas prices remain high, they may do very well.

The timescale is already dragging out. They were supposed to be doing the Poundland groundworks two months ago. We’ve heard nothing about this. Equipment is supposed to be delivered this month. Nothing so far. EA and HSE permissions are still outstanding. There’s been no news on a sidetrack and they’ve changed the plans for this, including the abandonment of their plan, as committed to in their planning application, for a well test. They’ve softened up the market already with statements to the effect that demand for gas well equipment has picked up strongly with the huge rise in gas prices. Deliveries will not be helped by the current supply chain difficulties

They will owe lenders about £5.9mm. by next June. Their assets are in the hands of a third party, against their meeting the terms of their loans. In July, the hedges take effect. This is a management which has never met a single one of its own deadlines or budgets and which has given its shareholders a number of unpleasant surprises on both fronts.

These are not disingenuous, or even negative, comments. They are statements of fact. I’ll be happy to debate them with anyone. I don’t want the share price to go down. I don’t, however, share the view of bulls of the company that this management will have achieved enough cash flow at Poundland to pay the company’s debts by the time the money has to be paid to the Lenders. Whether the Lenders will then enforce their rights or give this lot more time to get to real profitability is a moot point.

[1347] 15/10/2021 14:50

Isn't it more like this?

While {drawing salary}
Then kick can
Loop

[sincero1] 15/10/2021 14:31

hits - i'm always fair .... but we all know what disingenuous jtisdaly meant..he just can't help himself .... the negativity is consuming him .
i wish you a good weekend, i'm off to enjoy mine.


remember old grey window lickers ... truth is the best defence...