Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ja51oiler] 23/9/2021 14:54

O Dear
trying to pass other boys homework of as your own Cudd/whodares.

They are quite obviously better than your own cakk handed attempts but have already been dismissed with the realities of the situation on the other site.

Back of the room and put another D cap on top of the many your already wearing!

[jtidsbadly] 23/9/2021 14:54

Whocares: have you now taken to repeating the posts of ill-informed people on another site on here - without attribution? Pretty poor form.

It seems to me that the best thing that could happen here for Anguish is a reversal by April 2022 or so of the recent huge rise in the gas price. That’s the only way, short of early very strong gas flows, that they’ll get free of the huge liability that the hedges appear to represent. If the hedges are with third parties and not with the Lenders, those parties will most likely have already locked in their profit with an offsetting derivatives deal at a much higher price. If they’re with the Lenders, things may be a little more complicated and it will depend on their plans for Poundland, if any. Exciting, isn’t it?

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 14:50

Top 5 rampers on angs according to pumped or dumped - 1 Yanis2005
2 WolfOfTheWoods
3 RealAnalyst
4 Alan2017
5 gkb47

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 14:45

Some huge buys on UKOG , tempted with that as well. Looks like the same people de-ramping it from here

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 14:44

As per the Competent Persons Report that Angus commissioned the company are due to produce 5 million scfs per day without having any need to drill a sidetrack. In the Q&A of the website they confirmed that it will exceed 5mmscf/d. I guess that this means it could be anything up to 7 or 8 to begin with but to keep things conservative we will stick with the 5 that both the company and the CPR have assured we will get. We will also assume a first gas date of February as Angus have stated in their 11th August RNS. Again, to be conservative we will say that this is half way through February and not February 1st.

5mmscf/d equates to 1.6 million therms per month.

The current prices for gas futures were updated the other day on www.theice.com

Feb 2022 – 189.02 pence per therm
March- 172.5 pence per therm
April – 100 pence per therm
May & June – 87.5 pence per therm

On this basis Angus will have

Feb 2022 – (half month) = 800,000 therms x 189.02 pence per therm = £ 1,512,160 income
March 2022 – 1.6 million x 172.5 pence per therm = £2,760,000 income
April 2022 - 1.6 million x 100 pence per therm = £1,600,000 income
May 2022 - 1.6 million x 87.5 pence per therm = £1,400,000 income
June 2022 - 1.6 million x 87.5 pence per therm = £1,400,000 income

Total for the 4.5 month period £8,672,160

After June the hedge will then kick in and the value to Angus of most of the production will decline significantly. The futures prices for July / Aug / Sept are set at 87.23 pence per therm currently and assuming that they stay this way then the revenue would look like this.

The gas allocated to the hedge would be 70% of 1.6 million therms = 1,120,000 therms
The gas that was free to sell to market would be 30% of 1.6 million therms = 480,000 therms

The revenue generated would be:

July-September 2022 – At 75p per therm the hedged 70% would generate £481,600 per month and the unhedged 30% would generate £418,704 per month. The total revenue over the three months would be £2.7 million.

If you look at the monthly operating costs, (that can be seen on page 47 of the CPR) the you can see that the annual opex for the fixed opex is £1.39 million and the G&A is £520,000 = £1.9 million. This gives a monthly opex of just £160,000. So in the 7.5 months that I have given figures for here the company will have generated £11.3 million in cash with total opex of £1.2 million giving a total profit on the site of £10.1 million.

This is even with the hedge in place, and without drilling the sidetrack. This means that when you include the end of next year and the annual winter uplift then Angus will have generated enough money to pay off the loan even without the sidetrack and even with the hedge in place.

Those responsible for the hedge would get the gas that they need to make profit and there would be plenty of cash to pay off the debts.

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 14:34

Mirasol – I am an investor who has been invested in Angus for years as I live quite close to one of the company’s old Weald sites. Under the old management the company made many mistakes but I am sick of this coterie of old investors who cannot move on and who have decided that because Balcombe didn’t work and they lost money by investing at a ridiculously high price that that they can make up any lies about the company that they choose. Why should they (and I include you in that) talk my investment down. Saltfleetyby is not Brockham and some red/black gamble it is a sensible grown up cash-generative proposition. The move into geothermal also shows that the company have got an eye on the fashions of the future. I like where it is going and am not going to have a bunch of morons lying to deramp the company just because they feel that they are owed something because of their own poor investments. I lost money on Brockham too, but I don’t cry about it and I have worked hard to get it all back. I have put more money in here and stand to make a lot of cash when Saltfleetby takes off and the market recognises what Angus have got. No doubt you will just carry on sitting there are calling it poundland even as it generates tens of millions per year in cash flow.

[jtidsbadly] 23/9/2021 14:30

1347: yes, I understand. But I think it’s much safer to assume that the entities on the other side of the hedges will prefer to stick to them. If that bankrupts Anguish, those parties may then want to enter discussions with His Lordship.

If the hedges were put options and if the sidetrack could be drilled while the work Is being carried out on the gas plant, would not the part-time Interim MD have told us so? It’s price sensitive information and you’d think he’d want the price up.

[1347] 23/9/2021 12:54

JT - I don't know that they would, just pointing out we don't know how much flexibility may, or may not be, built into whatever the hedges contract is. Things do get re-negotiated in business from time to time.

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 12:50

There is a lot of moaning about not being online to make hay while the sunshinesYet what would have happened if gas prices due to unforseen circumstances were at 20p per therm?What would the moaners saying then about coming online?Its like any asset that has appreciated through external factors like the price per therm going parabolic.The Gas IN THE GROUND HAS GONE UP IN VALUE IRRESPECTIVE OF EXTRACTIONThe sooner people realise this the better because they cannot control contractors/suppliers/permit timings in a post Covid19 era its twice as hard.Just appreciate that Saltfleeby an ONSHORE project could become a decent reality.A market cap of £7m vs. £40m gas value alone minus the £15m debt is something to cheer.Im HOLDING fIRMLY!

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 12:48

UJ9 I should be carefull the "MORON" is very pretective around that shell agreement!---Yes I see that. Let's not have any name calling though

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 12:47

Bit of a slow day today after yesterday's volume

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 12:44

There is a lot of moaning about not being online to make hay while the sunshinesYet what would have happened if gas prices due to unforseen circumstances were at 20p per therm?What would the moaners saying then about coming online?Its like any asset that has appreciated through external factors like the price per therm going parabolic.The Gas IN THE GROUND HAS GONE UP IN VALUE IRRESPECTIVE OF EXTRACTIONThe sooner people realise this the better because they cannot control contractors/suppliers/permit timings in a post Covid19 era its twice as hard.Just appreciate that Saltfleeby an ONSHORE project could become a decent reality.A market cap of £7m vs. £40m gas value alone minus the £15m debt is something to cheer.Im HOLDING fIRMLY!

[ja51oiler] 23/9/2021 12:29

UJ9

I should be carefull the "MORON" is very pretective around that shell agreement!

[jtidsbadly] 23/9/2021 11:59

Thanks very much, 1347 and JA51. I knew I’d read it somewhere, that was my next recourse. In the interviews I watched, the Interim MD was concerned about the regulatory aspects of drilling the sidetrack and building the plant together, on safety considerations.

1347: why would anyone on the other side of the hedges be prepared to alter the terms??

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 10:36

There is a lot of moaning about not being online to make hay while the sunshinesYet what would have happened if gas prices due to unforseen circumstances were at 20p per therm?What would the moaners saying then about coming online?Its like any asset that has appreciated through external factors like the price per therm going parabolic.The Gas IN THE GROUND HAS GONE UP IN VALUE IRRESPECTIVE OF EXTRACTIONThe sooner people realise this the better because they cannot control contractors/suppliers/permit timings in a post Covid19 era its twice as hard.Just appreciate that Saltfleeby an ONSHORE project could become a decent reality.A market cap of £7m vs. £40m gas value alone minus the £15m debt is something to cheer.Im HOLDING fIRMLY!

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 10:23

Does that honestly sound like any likely sort of deal to be struck and signed up to by the likes of Shell ort anyone else, for that matter?----You would need to ask Shell why they signed a deal with Angs :0)

[1347] 23/9/2021 10:21

UJ - If it is a Futures Contract it will stipulate a volume and the price, we just don't know what that volume is.

[ultimatejustice9] 23/9/2021 10:12

You are the voice of rationality and reason UJ. CQ ;-)------:0) just my tuppenceworth

[clottedq] 23/9/2021 10:12

I would be very careful about putting words into John Redwood's mouth - if I were you WhoCares - I know that he can be VERY litigious!

CQ ;-)

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 10:02

John Redwood MP speaks

[ja51oiler] 23/9/2021 09:58

JT
From the PP....Under planning statment.

4. The Proposed Development
4.1 Description of the Proposed Development
Angus Energy is proposing to drill a single side-track well from one of the existing Saltfleetby wells (SF-7) at the
Saltfleetby B wellsite. The location of SF-7 is shown on Plan AE-SFB-003 (Existing Site). The side-track is shown
on Plan AE-SFB-004 (Side-track SF-7 and Extent of Gas Reserve).

The side-track well is designed to intersect a target formation which, based upon a review of seismic data, is
believed to contain approximately 5.2 billion cubic feet of gas . A successful side-track could therefore increase
production flow significantly. The natural gas from the well would then flow into the existing processing facility at
Saltfleetby B wellsite, before transportation via the existing pipeline to Theddlethorpe and distribution via the
National Grid NTS.

The Proposed Development will be temporary in nature; the total duration of the development is estimated to be
16 weeks.

[whocares765] 23/9/2021 09:54

There is a lot of moaning about not being online to make hay while the sunshines
Yet what would have happened if gas prices due to unforseen circumstances were at 20p per therm?
What would the moaners saying then about coming online?

Its like any asset that has appreciated through external factors like the price per therm going parabolic.
The Gas IN THE GROUND HAS GONE UP IN VALUE IRRESPECTIVE OF EXTRACTION

The sooner people realise this the better because they cannot control contractors/suppliers/permit timings in a post Covid19 era its twice as hard.

Just appreciate that Saltfleeby an ONSHORE project could become a decent reality.

A market cap of £7m vs. £40m gas value alone minus the £15m debt is something to cheer.

Im HOLDING fIRMLY!