Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 01/2/2023 14:58

Some chunky sells going through today...

[1347] 01/2/2023 13:22

JT If you go back to their original forecast completion date based on their forecast spud date we are now on the 6th completion date slippage, or the 5th if you take the actual spud date. That's on top of repeated missed dates as to when the sidetrack programme would start.

Yes, as I've said several times, without a succesful side-track they are skating on thin ice. However I don't see the market price of gas getting low enough for Anguish Energy to benefit from it and, of course, it's a double hedged sword because if they exceed the hedges then they won't make much extra, especially if that side-track is successful.

Going concern always relies on raising more on the London Laundromat so I expect that will be the aame again. The derivatives and outstanding loan liabilities will be interesting though.

[sincero1] 01/2/2023 12:26

onetoomany quite right ... it has upset the old grey disingenuous stale urine smelling nobodies hasn't it as they haven't stopped posting since the replies went online last night ...even up to midnight and then 1st this in the morning ....that is some dedicated troll deramping isn't it... they are getting desperate now as they know the knockout mutton chop slapping is coming and then they will disappear....

[jtidsbadly] 01/2/2023 12:22

Drilling on target, onetomany? What target is that? Confident? Yes, they’re sure there’s gas there but they’ve lost confidence that they can get to it. Meanwhile they’re losing money every day the drill rig is there. Unless your nosey source on site knows differently?

[onetomany] 01/2/2023 11:56

Just saw the updated Q&A. All sounding very positive, drilling on target and more confidence. Few days for the blockbuster news. Unbelievable to see the deramping alter egos still looking stupid.

[jtidsbadly] 01/2/2023 11:54

... and soon, if he’s not already, Carlos will be talking with the auditors about the wording of their “going concern” statement in the upcoming report and accounts. That’s going to be an interesting document if this sidetrack doesn’t succeed in finding commercial quantities of gas.

I recall an answer to a question about Mercuria’s involvement in the appointment of the two new blokes, in September, I think. Anguish said they’d only talked with Mercuria on the hedges and related minor matters (to paraphrase them). Perhaps Anguish were talking with Law Debenrure, not Mercuria. They’re the people who control the Anguish bank accounts.

[jtidsbadly] 01/2/2023 11:23

1347: yes, and they’ll struggle to meet this month’s hedge. Thereafter, they’re expecting the gas flow to tail off a bit. Not nice if the water cut is increasing. Then there’s the 10% of the year when the plant has to be closed down for servicing. So the monthly flow for the next 6 months from 1 March will need to be 11.8% higher than that required in the monthly hedge terms schedule in the CPR on average to cover the loss from this downtime. The big risk, if they get beyond the end of this month or next, is inability to meet the forward contract terms again. Unless, of course, the gas price were to fall below the forward contract price, in which case it’s feet back in the out basket and a lunch table at Wilton’s, what? Ooh, that Dow ‘63.

[jtidsbadly] 01/2/2023 10:08

1347: your comment on Mercuria is what I meant in my second sentence above. The hedged volume goes up this month to 5.75mmscfd., in a short month. We don’t know anything about the deferred payments. So far Aleph and their partners appear to have backed Anguish’s placings. They’ll need to have good reason to want to throw good money after bad. I imagine Wingas, with the forward contracts in place, would have plugged and abandoned it, even with these higher gas prices. As it is, they’ve got out of the p&a costs completely. If taking over Anguish would leave the abandonment costs with Mercuria, maybe they’ll continue to defer Anguish’s debts further. That MBA will need his slide rule, though, the equations here are complicated.

[1347] 01/2/2023 09:42

JT Not sure that Mercuria will cut them enough slack to keep on drilling until they get a success, there have been no commercially succesful drills for years at Poundland so if this one ultimately fails then what? It's double or quits, as I've said.

Without that side-track all it needs is one breakdown in that plant or a problem with one of the existing wells and they wouldn't be selling enough gas to cover operating and financial costs and the hedge commitments.

I expect Mercuria will be happy to let it play out as long as they are getting the hedged revenue and there are no defaults, but placings would have to cover any hedge shortfall or further drills.

Wingas did look at alternatives but ruled them out, although I don't think they considered building a complete new processing plant on site.

“During 2018 alternative solutions, including gas to power, to continue to exploit value from the assets were evaluated. No option provided feasible financially or operationally. The Company investigated Plug and Abandonment of the gas field as a primary future option.”

[jtidsbadly] 01/2/2023 08:39

1347: it’s really not looking good at the moment, is it? All quiet on the midwestern front too. This sidetrack is now a decider for Anguish. I think they’ll have to continue with it until either they find commercial gas or they run out of money.

JA51: thanks for this info. They’ve avoided mention of water all along, haven’t they - whether formation water or free water? Wingas were preparing Poundland for storage in 2012, piping what gas remained to Theddlethorpe until the pressure no longer justified it. Spending £30mm-odd on their own production plant would never have occurred to them. The huge rise in the gas price would have bailed out the current bozos but they’ve given it all away to lenders who are also getting 15.4% interest, plus an 8% of revenue royalty for the remaining life of the field.

[1347] 01/2/2023 08:37

JA It's probably cheaper for them to pump it back in rather than tanker it away to be processed, which is not cheap. Not exactly 50 BOPD as they claimed is it. Lidsey was also supposed to be back in production last May as I recall. Just the same old, same old.

[ja51oiler] 01/2/2023 08:29

This is odd. No oil produced at Brockham for 2 months, but water still being shown at 16/17 barrels a day!....That's some expensive water!!

[ja51oiler] 01/2/2023 08:19

O dear, November figures out.



Brockham still not producing, and Saltfleetby water cut on the up!

[1347] 01/2/2023 07:55

JA On the costs then I very much doubt you'll get much more than what's in the CPR. Most of the costs are fixed and I expect them to be higher than what they have thus far indicated. Finex costs are also significant here.

As far as CoS are concerned then for me the only one that's important is the Commercial CoS, which means we need to know what the flow rates are and for how long they will last, the guff about drilling angles, bore size and mud weight etc. is just for drilling techys.

Simple fact remains is that they are currently just above the hedged volumes on a depleting field, so unless they can get more gas then their gas revenue is capped at the hedged price which, together with the condensate, will just about cover Opex and Finex at best I reckon, i.e. little to nothing left for Capex or Dividends (jam tomorrow ploy).

JT Yes I think the Martians will be upset they didn't get this contract, they'd make a fair bit on each and every day and so it would be a nice little earner. I agree I think the newsflow will go pretty much as you indicate.

[goforgold1] 01/2/2023 07:51

1p soon or less. Billions of worthless shares all been sold to the private investors. Smart money been getting out since 2p

[astra1vision] 01/2/2023 07:49

I order LETSBUY1, my resident slave, back here today to post more hilarious rubbish to keep us entertained.

[gaffer73] 01/2/2023 07:47

Wow 3,432,488,979 shares in issue now. Anyone still expecting 10p? 5p? 3p? 2p?

[negan] 01/2/2023 07:38

JT. They have to keep the gravy train going somehow what,what?

[jtidsbadly] 31/1/2023 23:40

Negan: if this second attempt fails, will they have another go or abandon it? It’s hard to see how they will ever be able to afford to drill another sidetrack from an alternative well if this one fails so maybe they’ll raise more money and keep going.

[negan] 31/1/2023 23:17

So basically winging it then?