Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[stevie blunder] 13/10/2014 12:17

Well, Que Passa, since you are a lazy beggar I had a look at the 2013 Annual Report....
;-)

Page 71 here:

The royalty is still carried at cost as
this does not materially differ to its fair value. Should this become material, an effective interest rate will be recognised in the income
statement along with any associated valuation movement.

Hope that helps !

Interestingly the royalty payment also becomes repayable if LOND changes hands:

Page 27: The royalty agreement contains a number of milestones, the breach of which would allow the Group
to convert the royalty back into the US$30m consideration, the satisfaction of which can be in cash
or London Mining shares at London Mining’s election. The remaining milestones include commercial
production not occurring prior to June 20, 2017, a change of control of the project (or of London Mining)
and the revocation of any material licences or permits.

This may have banjaxed even a low-ball takeover of LOND as the 30$M was repayable. It now looks like Jindal get the mine and LOND get the shaft. :-)

[bolador] 13/10/2014 11:32

RCTurner

Thanks, unfortunately I do not have figures for average nav/dis/prm but I do remember it used to trade at a premium because of the quality of the Kestrel income !

QuePasa,

$30m is what they paid to LM. The Aussie coal royalty capital value is shown in the accounts as separate item.

I am definitely not a guru in this stock but looking a long way back through these posts turns up a lot of useful info.

[rcturner2] 13/10/2014 11:11

bolador, good post. You use a discount of 25%, which seems reasonable, but do you have any ideas on how this figure has changed over time for APF?

[bolador] 13/10/2014 11:07

ryand2222

The nav was GBP192 in July, since then the dollar has appreciated six per cent.
Roughly speaking this knocks GBP12m of the portfolio valuation because of the effects of the higher dollar on the miners profits. Then LM has cratered costing at least GBP18m so there is GBP30 gone. This is 25pps (30/116) leaving nav 167 (192-25)say 160p with an share price of 110. I think you would expect a discount of twenty five per cent in these markets if not higher. So back of the envelope gives share price of 120p.
Not seemingly enough meat at 110p today to make it worthwhile to buy unless a good part of the dividend holds,then of course something may be returned from a buyer of LM and the nav may be better than expected because of the royalty type of income the company enjoys. Not much further down and it looks a good spec ?

[quepassa] 13/10/2014 11:04

Does anyone know for sure at what value the London Mining royalty/investment was being carried?

Was it $30m? - Or was it higher or lower than this level? I don't know what being carried at fair value might mean, as suggested earlier.

It's such a straightforward question that I hope someone can simply say, for example, that the answer can be found on page xyz of the latest Annual Report.

It is tough to answer the repeated questions of what may or may not be in the price of APF as it is difficult to know the carry value of APF assets.

Many/most professional money/investment/fund managers give a frequent, sometimes monthly, valuation of their Top Ten holdings. You can see what the individual assets are worth.

Personally, I can never recall seeing any individual valuations for APF assets. If I have inadvertently missed valuations of individual assets- even the big one like Kestrel- I would be grateful if someone could show me where to find them.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rcturner2] 13/10/2014 10:39

ryan, hard to know. I believe that the failure of LOND wipes out about 20p of NAV for Anglo Pacific. The problem is that mining royalties are probably going out of fashion and that may well impact on the rest of the NAV. This is why a statement from the company would be useful, stating the damage to NAV and explaining what the current figure is.

[ryandj2222] 13/10/2014 10:36

Is Apf fairly valued now considering the assumption that London is worthless?

[rcturner2] 13/10/2014 10:02

Just to note the BRWM also have a royalty with London Mining and they have written it down to zero, and announced this to shareholders by RNS.

[haywards26] 12/10/2014 20:55

Hopefully some positive news re London Mining

hxxp://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/jsw-steel-in-advanced-stages-of-acquiring-london-mining-114101200095_1.html

[fabius1] 12/10/2014 19:55

christh

Thanks for letting me know. Shame. Missed that for some reason. That original team seemed pretty solid to me. I know they had a bit of clear out a while back.

[christh] 12/10/2014 19:03

If it gives comfort and faith in the company.....the director has been buying
shares over £25,000 worth

2 Sep 2014
Director’s Share Dealings

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the “Company”;) (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) announces that it received notification on September 11, 2014 of the following transaction by Mr. Mark Potter, Chief Investment Officer and Executive Director of the Company.

On September 11, 2014, Mr. Potter bought 18,719 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company (the “Shares”) at a price of £1.62 per Share. The transaction took place on the London Stock Exchange. Following this notification, the total beneficial holding of Shares by Mr. Potter is now 100,000 Shares, representing 0.09% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

This notification is intended to satisfy the Company’s obligations under Disclosure and Transparency Rule 3.1.4R.

[christh] 12/10/2014 19:00

FABIUS1 10 Oct'14 - 20:18 - 6748 of 6749

you are behind the times my friend.
Mr Boycot died a few months ago.RIP.

hxxp://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4735893/Anglo-Pacific-director-dies.html

Although QP bashes this all the time, this will take time to turn upwards
as it has suffered the collapse of LON and then the trade statement about
the Kestrel mine for the last quarter not making any money due to RIO digging elsewhere.

I am in here for the long term, we have seen the worst falling from the FTSE250
at the max 360p to 105p which is a substantial fall but will turn around as
the other investments will pay good income to APF.

The commodities are not doing great with the prices falling,world events
causing the world markets to drift lower and recession hitting Europe.
I am sure things will turn better but perhaps 1-2 years.
Remember that commodities are cyclical stocks.

[topvest] 10/10/2014 20:21

It's harsh but its true. Lots of write-downs, now another. The icing on the cake is that their only major revenue stream seems to about to stop for 6+ months. No real point selling at the moment, but things couldn't have got much worse. The new team haven't achieved any transformation and, I suspect, the window has now well and truly closed. Any deal would likely be dilutive. I think best value would probably be achieved by focusing on the one good asset and returning all other cash to holders. It could then become a low-cost income play. Suspect they are more likely to go for glory though!

[fabius1] 10/10/2014 20:18

Is Mr Boycott still on the board? I liked it when they were just a handful of crusty old accountants. I recall he bought a large tranche of shares back in 2009 when they were around 80-90p.

[fabius1] 10/10/2014 08:55

QP - Agreed, a note from HQ would be useful but I think it's in the price anyway, don't you?

[piedro] 10/10/2014 08:41

RC Turner2,

I have sent an e-mail to the company with your request

[rcturner2] 10/10/2014 08:16

I am surprised that Anglo Pacific have not updated the market regarding the problems at London Mining and how they affect the company.

[quepassa] 09/10/2014 14:36

Woops. That's not good. - Thanks for input.

I wonder to myself what prudent course of action APF's auditors re valuation would now countenance, having seen how BlackRock, one of the most globally respected investment companies has treated its own London Mining related royalty investment. Admittedly, for BlackRock it is Marampa . For APF, we are talking about Isua in Greenland.

This is a link to the BlackRock World Mining Trust plc RNS mentioned above, issued yesterday at 17.26hrs.



If BRWM issued a statement about its London Mining royalty, in my opinion it wouldn't be unwelcome if APF did the same.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[tricia51] 09/10/2014 13:11

brwm has written off its LM royalty to zero.see rns today

[stevie blunder] 09/10/2014 10:56

Looking at the Annual Report of London Mining, it looks as if they run their Sierra Leone mine through a British Virgin Islands subsidiary.

Extracting the mine from the parent company would not be difficult, leaving LOND with no assets.

[bolador] 09/10/2014 09:59

We need to know the terms of the put, obviously APF cannot expect LM to pay back the $30m as the put allows but what defence does APF have if LM goes into liquidation? Does the royalty contract have negotiating value with the liquidator or new investor?
In any event the demise of LM is not lethal to APF but let's say the nav is now 160p the current share price look about right but too low if the div can held.
What a mess

[rcturner2] 09/10/2014 09:40

It is probably about 20p of the NAV, very roughly.