Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[christh] 18/8/2014 10:24

With APF at this price hopefully we've seen the bottom.
It is very encouraging to see the ceo buying shares to the tune of now its holding is over 1.4 million shares.

Also with RIO's development of Kestrel and the record production will see
a strong improvement on APF finances.

So I tend to ignore these shorters!

[weeeck] 18/8/2014 10:19

The trend for miners has until recently been downwards. What business is it that APF are in?. Oh yes, mining, I almost forgot. The trend is your friend - until it isn't, if you are a trader and not an investor, otherwise if the fundamentals are still ok it lets you top up at lower prices. No advice intended. Long term holder of APF.

[bhoddhisattva] 18/8/2014 09:48

If Mr Market knows best and the Trend is your friend - one would never get undervalued companies or turnaround situations or any of the other common and often mispricing that goes on which represent investment opportunities!

What a load of tosh!

[christh] 18/8/2014 08:16

This thread has been infested with shorters!

They know best....LOL

[buywell2] 18/8/2014 08:04

Cos APF have been in down-trend mode for circa 4 years now and counting

Don't forget Mr Market knows best

Let the trend be your friend is still one of the best investment rules methinks

[buywell2] 18/8/2014 07:58

Julian don't do charts then does he

[christh] 18/8/2014 07:56

JULIAN TREGER has been buying shares.

16/07/2014 15:35 RNS Anglo Pacific Group PLC - Director's Share Dealings RDS
16/07/2014 15:35 RNS Anglo Pacific Group PLC - Director/PDMR Shareholding RDS
16/07/2014 15:35 RNS Anglo Pacific Group PLC - Director/PDMR Shareholding RDS


Following this notification, the total beneficial holding of Shares by Mr. Treger and his connected persons is now 1,199,389 Shares, representing 1.03% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[buywell2] 18/8/2014 07:53

They are current financials on advfn .... did you not know that with all the ramping you do ?

[christh] 18/8/2014 07:51

buywell2
18 Aug'14 - 07:30 - 6651 of 6651

results are not out yet!

Where did you get these from?

These are not current.

[buywell2] 18/8/2014 07:30

These numbers don't read well V the share price and Chart

This is the one that should cause concern, Net Tangible Asset Value PS * 17.42p




Net Debt 26.90 m
Gross Gearing 16.42 %
Quick Assets 40.83 m
Net Working Capital 39.60 m
Intangibles / Fixed Assets 89.91 %
Turnover PS - p
Pre-Tax Profit PS -45.43 p
Retained Profit PS -46.00 p
Cash PS 13.49 p
Net Cash PS 12.44 p
Net Tangible Asset Value PS * 17.42 p
Net Asset Value PS 186.25 p

[christh] 18/8/2014 07:14

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the "Company") (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) will announce its interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2014 on August 28, 2014.

[christh] 04/8/2014 11:22

Gold lifts after non-farm payroll data

Published: 7:47 am, Monday, 4 August 2014
Gold futures have ended higher after a lacklustre US labour market reading fanned trader interest.

Gold futures have ended higher, erasing the previous day's losses, after a lacklustre US labour market reading fanned trader interest in the protective asset and eased jitters over higher interest rates.

Gold for December delivery, the most active contract, on Friday rose $US12, or 0.9 per cent, to settle at $US1,294.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold prices reached as high as $US1,298.40 an ounce after a monthly report showed US nonfarm payrolls rose by 209,000 in July, missing economists' forecasts of a 230,000 gain. The rally helped gold rebound off a six-week low hit Thursday, amid jitters that stronger economic data would spur the Federal Reserve to speed up its stimulus reductions or raise interest rates sooner.

Instead, gold traders cheered a 'Goldilocks' jobs reading, that missed market expectations by a small-enough margin to allay fears of a more hawkish Fed without stoking worries about growth, said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior commodities strategist with Archer Financial Services in Chicago.

Recent losses in the stock market also lent gold support, as some investors moved to re-assess gold's allure as a haven asset, he added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased 2014's gains in a steep tumble on Thursday, while the share price 500 index also posted a large decline.

'There's a camp of investors who are comfortable with buying a little gold as a hedge until they have a better idea of where equities are going to go,' Klopfenstein said.

Gold prices retreated three per cent in July as investors shifted focus from simmering conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East to what some traders say is an escalating threat of tighter monetary policy in the US. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against political and financial turmoil, believing it will hold its value better than other assets during periods of upheaval.

'Even though there's tension going on in Gaza and Ukraine, it's on the back burner. The US economy and the Fed are what's directing gold,' said Thomas Capalbo, a metals broker with Newedge in New York.

hxxp://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/world/2014/08/04/gold-lifts-after-non-farm-payroll-data.html

[gavapentin] 01/8/2014 09:09

Appears to be a modicum of strength here.

[christh] 16/7/2014 08:37

Pilling & Co said BUY

[dgellissnr] 16/7/2014 07:27

rio
coking coal up at kestrel
first half record up 6%

[quepassa] 02/7/2014 08:49

Hi Haydock,

Good post . Thank you.

Re debt.

Two things are notable.

Firstly that for the first time in memory they are prepared to take on board debt. This is a major change in strategy and some investors may have taken comfort in the past from APF being debt-free company which is a very comfortable position to be in.

Debt can confer the benefits of gearing. But using debt to buy (highly) illiquid and opaque investments is not without significant risk. The bank line appears to be short-term but the assets are definitely long term by their nature. We therefore have not insignificant refinancing risk at a time when nearly all their cash is being used to support dividends. This is risky stuff in my view to buy illiquid and volatile, and difficult-to-market, longer term assets against a short term borrowing line.

Secondly. The assets which APF buy are by nature fluctuating as to yield. They are not buying high-grade fixed-income securities. The dividends for example at Kestrel have fluctuated wildly. In another example, we have no idea what the yield , if any, may be on Flowstream. Therefore there is additional risk that yield may fall below the ongoing interest cost of the debt. The risk-reward ratio does not look good to me.

Moreover, the net gain on investments is of course severely limited. Let's say they find a royalty which yields a steady 6% currently, the cost of the debt may, I am guessing, be Libor +3 or4%. The net gain in this example for a risky investment of 2 or 3%pa is de minimis in the scheme of things. In my example $15m x 2% = $300,000. Not a great deal for the risk to capital.

That is why many investment trusts have low/ very low levels of gearing because the yield pick-up between cost of the asset and cost of the debt frequently does not adequately compensate for the risk being taken.



Re Black Box investments.

The market has tended in recent times to eschew and be very wary of Black Box investments. By definition, you do not know what goes into the Black Box. Speaking personally, this type of investment makes me as an investor extremely uncomfortable.
It is more comfortable when investors know what the Company or money-manager is investing in. The history books are littered with just too many examples of Black Box investments which have come back to haunt investors, including major names much larger than Rothschild which were at the time undoubted.

You really need to know a Company inside out to trust Black Box investments. In my view they are highly undesirable investments, especially in the case of a new management team such as we have at APF which has not yet proved itself.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[buywell2] 01/7/2014 15:22

180p


buywell2 4 May'14 - 10:59 - 6571 of 6639 0 0 edit

nearly back to where you bought in christh

COAL taking a hit and GOLD not looking so hot either

[haydock] 01/7/2014 15:17

Q.P.
I have always classed APF as similar to an investment trust.
That is now even more the case as they can & will borrow money, a little not a lot.
Also if you look at the long term value protecting RIT, many of their investments are of the black box off mkt nature, c/o the Rothchild links.
Quite prepared to believe our new bod has a few links & is pulling in a few favours.
However you pays your money etc.
Cheers Hay.

At least we have not upset the First tribes in B.C... yet.

[quepassa] 01/7/2014 15:01

Sometimes it is best not to rattle the cage....



Valuation of assets can be very hard in this company for investors.

Reading the Annual Report as to the methodologies used for valuing assets leads me to believe that this is far from an exact science.

When for example the Company makes investments into Flowstream where the name of the operator is retained and even the exact geographical location of the projects are held back, this does not promote transparency or indeed in my view investor confidence. This sort of "black box" type investment is not enthralling in my opinion and how can any investor hope to hazard a guess what that investment is currently worth when it is secret.

Can anyone say what yield or return APF is earning/may expect to earn on the October 2013 investment into Flowstream?

Looks like the major possibility of the Company going into debt and away from its long tradition of being debt-free is on the cards. Having said that the $15m borrowing line is a pretty small amount with which to buy other royalty assets.

In my view only, I remain of the personal opinion that the Company strategy currently to pay away most if not all of its weakened earnings in dividends is sorely amiss in these current straitened times for the commodities sector.

Personally, given the illiquidity and opacity of some of APF's investments, I would think that the Company should trade at a 20-30% discount to NAV.




ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 01/7/2014 14:24

QuePassa
27 Jun'14 - 09:43 - 6634 of 6636

Are you giving us advise?

You do not hold any shares so we are not listening to you shorter.

The lows have already been reached now is the highs that will be re-testing.
The recent investment with Vanadium is very significant due its importance in processing steel as explained in an earlier post.

The share price will improve well now that we know that Rio is expanding Kestrel's life and will benefit from Pilbara too.