TBTT, that's indeed a more realistic scenario... |
I suspect something quite different - that the company is being "cleaned up" ahead of a sale. Hence the buy-outs of the minorities in the profitable plantations, the improvements in dividends, and the disposal of unprofitable plantations.
Given the majority shareholder will want a good price for their prize asset as much as we all want a good price that's OK with me. |
Delisting isnt neccessarily a risk in these circumstances - as long as everyone is honest you still hold a decent asset and should get paid...
I like the publicity a listing brings but it isnt essential. |
75% is a high bar. I don't think anyone else would vote to delist. |
I didn't say they intended to screw minority shareholders. If they did delist, I'd hope they'd provide a tender offer like Quarto at a similar price to the market price.
All I'm saying is that there have been quite a few delists in the last year from companies with a majority Asian shareholder. You'd be naive not to factor that risk into any investment thesis. |
Strange.
If they intend to screw the minority shareholders, why would the younger family members waste money on a decent dividend to minority shareholders? |
Only need 75% and the family has nearly 52%. I doubt Nokia Bell will care if it’s listed or private as their holding is way too big for the liquidity and they must hold lots of private investments. Only reason to be listed is to raise capital (
they don’t need it) or if it benefits the business reputation (also not needed).
Not saying it will happen but it’s definitely a risk as the younger family members may be less respectful of minority shareholders. |
How do you think they can delist this without the approval of f.e. Nokia Bell? |
Having just seen QRT delisting, there is a major risk here with the passing of the baton IMHO. Cleaning up the minorities is a great move but I do hope we get to see the value rather than the family delisting it and taking it for themselves. |
The $60m they paid was more or less the minorities' share of the accumulated cash in the subsidiaries. So they paid basically nothing for the future cash flows of these plantations.
The acquisition is on attractive terms and accretive on itself, but the main value of the transaction is strategic in nature.
It opens the door to unlocking of value. |
Difficult to have a view because we don't have enough information about the gross assets. It could be they've paid $60M and effectively immediately recouped $20M in cash from the acquired minority interests. We just have to trust they aren't being foolish. They'll certainly know the assets better than the minority interests and it's not as though AEP managemnt have been rushed into this. |
skanjete2
Non controlling interests as per 1/2year results
- Non-controlling
interests 3,938
I agree it is good too clear it all up and there must be some decent overhead savings to come hopefully
We shall have to wait and see
I am sticking with a 45c per annum dividend I currently forecast.
2024 could be interesting though but yet again it will boil down to the CPO and who knows where that will be |
I don't understand what you're nagging about.
$5m is ridiculous. They made 24$m of profit in the first half.
And I did mention it was last year.
Who knows what next year will be?
Over the last 10 years they averaged 58mioUS$ of cash flow (and growing).
I'm quite confident this figure will be higher over the next 10 years.
This for a market cap of 350m US$ with 150mUS$ of excess cash (not needed for the bussiness).
On top of this, it's clear that management is a lot more shareholder friendly than in the past... |
skanjete2
Your PBT figures are irrelevant as they for 2022. It was an exceptional year for CPO
Be lucky if they make $5m this year due to CPO price
Still it will help tidy up the balance sheet
Doubt very much there is $200m on the balance sheet either
The Group had net cash of $226.1m at 30 September 2023 |
This way, all the available cash at the Indonesian subsidiaries is freed.
I think there's still some 200US$ available.
So this can be upstreamed as well as future cash flows.
Next step would be to sell the Malaysian plantation. |
This is GREAT news!
The price is even lower than expected.
For m60US$, they buy :
- 93,84 mUS$ of (undervalued) gross assets
- 14,24 mUS$ of PBT last year
This will be a major uplift in earnings per share in future years. |
 Consolidation of AEP's Holdings in Its Indonesian Subsidiaries
AEP is pleased to announce the completion of the acquisitions of the minority interests in the following Indonesian subsidiaries, from PT Marison Nauli Ventura ("MNV") for a total cash consideration of US$60 million.
· 20% of the issued share capital of PT Tasik Raja ("Tasik"),
· 20% of the issued share capital of PT Hijau Pryan Perdana ("HPP"),
· 20% of the issued share capital of PT Bina Pitri Jaya ("BPJ"),
· 10% of the issued share capital of PT Alno Agro Utama ("Alno") and
· 25% of the issued share capital of PT Musam Utjing ("MU").
Following these transactions, the Company now wholly-owns Tasik, HPP, BPJ, Alno and MU.
The purchase of the minority interests in these five subsidiaries is in line with the Group's stated strategy of consolidating AEP's holdings in its Indonesian subsidiaries with the Group's cash resources, as reported in our 2022 Annual Report.
The acquisitions of the minority interests in Tasik, HPP, BPJ, Alno and MU is expected to enhance future earnings per share as it no longer has to apportion retained profits to MNV going forward. |
Thank you! |
2022 annual report: "The weighted average age of the trees in the Group is approximately 14 years. In Indonesia, the trees averaged about 13 years old while in Malaysia the trees are older at 25 years."
Page 6 of the annual report has a pie chart of the palms by maturity: 11% immature, 33% young, 32% prime, 24% old.
hxxps://www.angloeastern.co.uk/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-Eastern/reports-and-documents/AEP%20Plc%20Annual%20Report%202022%20-Web%20version.pdf
Their small Malaysian operation has very old trees. It wouldn't surprise me if they either sell it or make a big acquisition there. I think they'll feel that having a small operation with very old trees doesn't make much sense. |
MPEvans buys two Indonesian plantations for $8900/ha of planted area. 90% planted between 2017 and 2019 so their best days ahead. What are AEP's planted hectares worth? They have 68.6k. On same valuation that is $577m, excluding the plasma hectares. Does anyone know if they publish an age profile of their plantations? |
Panmure Gordon are managing it and there have been 7 day gaps before. They have until next June to complete it. |
I wonder why they appear to have stopped the buyback? |
I must say. I’m very unimpressed with the recent half hearted share buy back, MPE with a much smaller cash balance is spending nearly 5x more. The majority shareholders and other Indonesian planters must be itching to get their hands on the the 76,000 hectares and that massive cash pile. They’re probably hoping that us long suffering minority shareholders will become so fed up we’ll accept an offer, I would say in the region of around £10. |
The cynic in me says this is being primed to be taken private in the coming months…. |
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