To do this, they would need to find sellers...
I'm quite sure at least 60% of the free float wouldn't sell a share. |
There was supposed to be a buyback. Yes, maybe the reason that management changed their mind on the buyback is to let the shareprice sink so that they can offer us a buyout at a 30% premium. |
Share price being taken down on low volume.
Given the company has about 70% of its market cap in cash, and the major shareholder holds 51%, is this leading up to a buyout of the minorities by the major shareholder? They could entirely finance the bid (at a decent premium to the current share price!) using only the company's own cash.
Any way you look at it, the directors should be deeply embarrassed by the current share price. There is no way are they properly representing the interests of all shareholders. |
?Seller now done? |
Seller still there, 179k traded today. |
Fairly sure Odey have been the selling. Most their funds are be wound up or going to new managers. I don’t think they had a huge position. |
Not much point speculating IMO. Could be Odey, could be a fund divesting for ESG reasons, could be someone sick of the management not doing what they obviously should do. The shares are illiquid and it is what it is.
The management are solely responsible for the shares being structurally undervalued. They could fix it in a day if they wanted to. |
Indonesian inflation is 3.5%. Base rate is 5.75%. Presumably they pay tax on the interest.
Average US Dollar deposit rate in 2022 was 2.75% (2021: 0.30%) and Rupiah deposit rate was 3.63% (2021: 3.04%).
Pretty sure they're both tracking base rate. |
It must be a distressed seller, this has to be the cheapest plantation share anywhere.
I bought a few last week at a fraction under £7.20 and will buy more after I’ve sold some Malayasian shares. The management have an extraordinary attitude keeping so much cash on hand for so long.Not sure what interest they are getting on deposit or what the Indonesian inflation rate is but a meaningful share buy back program and an interim and final div yield of 6-7% would propel the shares to over £12. |
I make the EV of AEP about £88m now (using fairly pessimistic assumptions).
Net cash - $277m.
Medium term exchange rate: assume $1.25
Market cap @ 700p = £277m.
Allow 15% off cash pile to represent minority interests in plantations.
(Ignoring recent purchase of minority interests in 2 plantations and sale of unprofitable plantation + ignoring approx. $30m tax rebate receivable)
EV = £88m.
I know this is palm oil, and I realise that the board in the past have not been shareholder friendly, but either I'm missing something or this is absurd.
Distressed seller? Is it Odey? |
Placed an order via DMA with IG but not showing on screen
Anyone got the same problem? tia |
I think we can say the seller is still here!
The EV here now is absurdly tiny. If you value this like sector peer MPE, then this should be trading at double the current market cap. And I'm quite happy to argue that MPE at its current valuation is undervalued as well.
The argument for share buybacks is very strong at anything like these prices. Where else could MPE get such an implied return on their cash mountain? |
Hopefully the seller got cleared up yesterday- highest volume for a while. |
I take it you meant Indonesia. These tables from R.E.A. are probably the best you're going to get.
hxxps://rea.co.uk/investors/cpo-export-tariffs/ |
What is the latest tax situation re Malaysian export taxes because, as an ex holder, one of the annoying things was that whenever the CPO price rose, Malaysia seemed to increase the export tax... |
MPE up almost 8%. Don't expect this share to properly respond to fundamentals. Until they properly allocate the cash it just won't. |
CPO prices have soared in recent weeks with the price well over $1000 now |
The shares are ludicriously undervalued? |
Bit unusual to see 80K traded by 2pm. Something going on? |
Anyone have a good reason why the buyback shouldn't be happening right now? |
MPE update out today, if anybody wants to read across.
As for the share price here, and at MPE, apparently Odey was a shareholder of both companies, and may now be a forced seller. I don't know how true that is, but it seems as good an explanation as any. |
Falling production is bullish because demand is not falling. |
The $25m used to buy out minority shareholders,is expensive in relation to AEP's overall EV,but probably just underscores how cheap the shareprice is here. |
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