Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 08/2/2016 22:37

Why? Didn't we see a similar rise between 99 and 2011 and the world didn't collapse?

What we saw in that decade was inflation and I suspect we'll see the same again.

[mattjos] 08/2/2016 22:23

For those that 'do' EW theory ... Wave 5 should mirror the % advance of Wave 1 (assuming, as in this case, Wave 3 was the longest Wave) ... Wave 1 was a 300% advance.Rather incredibly, that would equate to circa $4,000/Oz gold as the target.All a load of old cobblers and, I'm not sure any of would actually wish for that ... It would be the consequence of something very unpleasant happening in the global banking system & a total loss of faith in fiat currencies.

[zhockey] 08/2/2016 22:21

I don't think gold is overbought as this is not a normal situation. With DB on the cusp and gold finally being realised as a safehaven we could see another 20% rise in short space.

[highly geared] 08/2/2016 22:07

I think gold is over bought after several good days and has come off its highs. Expect a bit of consolidation over the next few days.

Keep an eye on the macro situation. My view is the oil price slump will lead to massive debt defaults. Add to this the student and auto loans looming crisis (sub prime mark2)and we will see USA banks fail. Add on going issues at Deutsche Bank in Europe and the system looks like a house of cards ready to fall....

Whether AAZ has another stellar day remains to be seen and it wouldn't surprise me if this gets traded short term. However, if you believe gold is starting another bull market then the life changing gains will be made buying big at these levels and holding. Remember , every $100 rise in POG , 70,000 oz production gives another $7,000,000 revenue (real leverage).

[jeanesy] 08/2/2016 19:51

Just got back from work. What a pleasant surprise ! Lets hope that the rise continues tmw. Dare I say it but does anyone else think that our seller has now finished .. where are those 50k sells today? Onwards and upwards .. please!

[philo124] 08/2/2016 19:41

2nd biggest % mover today.

[mattjos] 08/2/2016 18:52

Still incredible strength in gold whilst the main indeces & banks all crater

[brasso3] 08/2/2016 18:03

Silver doing good as well.

[philo124] 08/2/2016 17:43

$1193. What a good rise in sp!

[zhockey] 08/2/2016 16:34

What's that, 50% for the day?

[cordwainer] 08/2/2016 16:34

omg, just woke up to find everything plummeting down except gold ballooning up

[bean02] 08/2/2016 16:30

Awesome finish!!

[ilostthelot] 08/2/2016 16:20

Looks like all the seller's are finished for the time being . Big resistance and 8p then 16p.ish.

[jbe81] 08/2/2016 15:57

could hit 7p tomorrow!

[someuwin] 08/2/2016 15:41

Could hit 7p this week.

[resourceful] 08/2/2016 15:01

I will take my money and run
happy to get it back
not my worst resource speculation

[jbe81] 08/2/2016 14:57

Interesting to see what happens with gold in the next fews days, doesn't seem like there is any stopping it, but nothing keeps going up at that rate

[mattjos] 08/2/2016 14:40

That'll do now for gold. Back to 1170 for a nice C&H pls

[highly geared] 08/2/2016 13:19

Busy day for me but 20 minutes at lunchtime to post a few thoughts.

I bought AAZ back in 2010 and was lucky enough to buy c.34p and sell around 80p. However, this was more than balanced by selling a tranche I bought around 50p for 10p about a year or so back when the geology problems hit with Gedabek and I wasn't convinced they'd make it...

I've kept an eye on AAZ and a few things strike me:

- Reza has plenty of skin in the game and wants this to succeed
- Reza appears to have good connections at the highest level so hopefully "managed" political risk , albeit the risk is certainly there (but where isn't)
- the use of debt has avoided shareholders being diluted to oblivion as par for the course with so many other AIM stocks (Reza won't dilute his stake)
- they've worked hard to resolve problems over the last year
- PSA isn't good but the accumulated losses put this years away from being an issue

Macro situation:

A wave of sovereign and corporate debt defaults are coming in 2016 and governments are out of ammunition. I see another crisis unfolding with zero/negative rates, bail in's etc.- another environment for safe haven investing in gold but you need to be in producers to get leverage.

SHG has some comparableS with AAZ ; SHG has a marginally better production profile with NGNM and Singida to come and excellent management but debt levels are similar and their market cap is 6-7x AAZ. If AAZ can demonstrate the turnaround will be maintained, I don't see why the share re-rate to 30-40p isn't initially possible , aligned to a rising gold price.If gold rises as I expect back to $1500+ , AAZ will be throwing off serious revenues with the ability to rapidly pay down debt.

If you believe gold will rise again to levels seen 4-5 years ago then AAZ is a great leveraged play and buying at these levels will see a 10X-15X return if conditions play out in the way they are shaping up to play...
All the best.

[mattjos] 08/2/2016 13:16

The rot now really starting set in across Europe. Deutsche Bank's huge derivative position is scaring all counter parties .. Now the Greek banks are cratering to 25 year lows as the weaker peripheral PIGS all start to get clobbered.The worse this gets, the more appealing Gold is going to look to more and more people

[brasso3] 08/2/2016 13:13

We should have the January production numbers in the next 7 days also.

Can see gold having a good week with Chinese new year also.

[jbe81] 08/2/2016 13:05

Gold approaching 1185 , Matt.