Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[cordwainer] 02/6/2015 18:17

but "hopes to deduct .." is not the same as 'will deduct'.

[terropol] 02/6/2015 10:28

Well it looks we should be getting some money back on interest paid on investment?
On 75% of it!

[wimbled] 02/6/2015 10:10

Just read it again. This makes more sense,...

International Bank of Azerbaijan at the rate at 12% has reduced to 4% + LIBOR = 75% reduction on initial compensation (interest). The loan has been extended to 2018.

If this is the case....well done AAZ.

[wimbled] 02/6/2015 09:59

As clear as dishwater. But my reading from the short paragraph is loan interests have reduced 8.5% to 4.5% + LIBOR. Not sure on what loans.

PSA either has increase from 12.75% to 25% or PSA reduced by 75% from 12.75% to 3.18%.

Very ambiguous

Shame the company present a RNS

[mattjos] 02/6/2015 07:57

Trying to understand this:http://abc.az/eng/news_02_06_2015_88780.html

[cordwainer] 31/5/2015 16:47

I agree this is obviously a highly leveraged play on pog, and I take your point. And quite frankly I need at least 500% upside to break even on this investment. My first top up might be in order before the next update. It's not exactly been a brave hold, just despondency and procrastination.

[wigwammer] 31/5/2015 16:34

Cordwainer,At any point in time the market ascribes 50:50 on the price of the pog moving up or down. If this wasn't the case the volume of demand v supply would move the price. That's what price discovery is about. Personally, I haven't got a clue where the pog goes, but the point here is the payoff to a rising gold price at this valuation is possibly 10x the leverage to the downside.For example, if pog falls $400, Aaz shares will likely fall 100%. But if pog rises $400, we could see a 1000% price rise. So while the outcome is risky, it is very much skewed to the upside at this valuation, IMHO.

[cordwainer] 31/5/2015 16:22

Average pog year to date is just above $1200, but I thought the market was expecting it to drop for the rest of the year, hence the low rating. But now I see that the latest forecasts are more supportive. There's still some execution risk though, as in recovery rates and meeting or beating targets. But if all goes to plan and overall costs similar, at least 30p by this time next year it is then.

Haven't got my head around the 2015 cash flow, I'll check earlier posts sometime maybe someone figured it all out..?

[danielmiller1] 31/5/2015 15:32

19 Sep'12 - 13:29 - 2492 of 7616 0 0

Why on earth would you sell this share right now? In 9 to 12 months the following is going to apply to our beloved Anglo Asian.

* Massively increased reserves following the mammoth drilling programme currently being progressed. (management have previously mentioned that every drilled hole to date had hit gold)
* Agitation Plant up and running resulting in higher recovery rates and in turn an increase in production & profit.
* Development of the second mine at Gosha underway, ready to contribute a further c. 15,000 oz per. year.
* Sale of the stockpiled Copper & Silver by products, following a sales agreement.
* Price of gold above $2,000 as the financial turmoil & QE3 continue to improve the price of the yellow stuff.
* Progression of the possible third mine at Ordubad with another small deposit likely to continue following Gosha.

Each of the above should go some way to increasing the current share price We are massively undervalued based on current information …… If we are equally undervalued on the revised information in a years time we will be (IMO) sitting pretty at over £1.

I would imagine that as the story develops here and the good news starts rolling in, we will become less undervalued by the market. For this reason, we are likely to see some big re-ratings along the line.

[wigwammer] 31/5/2015 15:29

If anyone wants to offer me a 500% return if the pog averages $1200 in 2015, please let me know.

[wigwammer] 31/5/2015 15:21

?So if the gold price stays around current levels for the rest of 2015, the shares are worth 30p. But that only justifies 6.75p now?Sorry. Doesn't make any sense at all.

[cordwainer] 31/5/2015 02:30

$1000 gold could actually create renewed interest in junior gold miners due to strong technical support for gold at that level, I'm just not sure whether this particular one would be favoured in that case, as it would perhaps struggle to break even.

Even as a disappointed holder, I don't think the bid price deserves to be more than 6.75p in the current environment. But clearly very sensitive to the gold price; if the average for 2015 makes $1200 instead of the $1100 I've been conservatively guessing, then I guess the share price becomes more like 30p on a similar earnings multiple and costs.

[gutterhead] 28/5/2015 14:41

Think it should be viewed as a start up with owner investing a lot of his own funds in a company that is growing in a market at bottom of its cycle.
Sat on big reserves of gold so even a minor increase of 10% would make a huge difference.

[mattjos] 28/5/2015 12:42

well, some good two-way debate as to the company and its prospects. As expected they dropped this on the news this morning. at £6m mkt cap and the forward guidance on production for H2, this looks overly cheap. The more the Copper production grows, the less reliant they become on the price of gold.

The company is obviously doing all that it can to ensure it has some headroom on its projected cash-flow v the debt repayment schedule + the CEO is stepping up in no small way to help ensure it can navigate its way through to the start up of the new plant.
The currency boost will also help considerably this year and beyond.
The govt will certainly not want to see its main source of domestic Gold production go to wall as a consequence of a short term cash-flow challenge.

As Terrepol said, lets now see what the AGM statement flushes out

[unionhall] 28/5/2015 12:29

If it was "Comfortably" they would not have had to defer some payments....

[wigwammer] 28/5/2015 12:17

I'll try again, peeps.This is the key statement - "The Group is forecasting to meet its debt service cover ratio for the six months to 30 June 2015. For the full year to 31 December 2015 and subsequent years the Group can comfortably meet the debt service cover ratio of 1.25 as specified in the loan agreement with the Amsterdam Trade Bank.""Comfortably"

[brasso3] 28/5/2015 12:11

Matt

I agree $3.6m (1200 tonnes) in copper revenues is not to be sniffed at. I still see this as a niec bonus on top of the gold though.

[mattjos] 28/5/2015 12:06

Folk are still wedded to the Gold here yet the Copper resource and the growth in production is very significant now

[brasso3] 28/5/2015 12:04

I can see this finishing blue now some weak holders have left. Almost all of the the negatives in this RNS were already known. Sellers have had weeks to get out at better prices than this. Today was a buying opportunity IMO.

[wigwammer] 28/5/2015 11:56

3 clear positives - 1) iba waived part of the principal payments for this year - they also think it can come good 2) they state they will meet dsr in 1h 2015, and "comfortably" meet it in fy15 and thereafter, assuming appropriate pog environment - ie they expect cash flow to improve significantly in H2 3) in a weaker cash flow scenario - "the group would look to establish credit lines either from commercial banks or its principal shareholder to cover any shortfall."Mr Vaziri is providing further assurances.With the results statement behind aaz, 2h should see step up in positive news flow, and price recovery, pog willing.

[brasso3] 28/5/2015 10:50

Some good RNS announcments in the last few months if you are an investor looking forward. If you are an investor that is looking backwards then the last financial year does not look great.

[mattjos] 28/5/2015 10:45

Lets say the guidance in the RNS about the Copper production was poorly worded & these are the actual FY targets

1,200 tonnes Copper
70,000 oz Gold
30,000 oz Silver

[jbe81] 28/5/2015 10:22

More shares bought than sold, could see a nice rise if sells dry up next week.

[jbe81] 28/5/2015 10:20

They need gold price to improve, but at this price worth a buy. Not a guaranteed mulitbagger, but a potential one. Reza's loan a positive. Last 2 qs figures showed they were struggling for cash.