Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 22/7/2020 15:06

Ptolemy, I think it's easy to see demons just abut anywhere & everywhere just now.
By the same logic you present, you can construct a case for BP to pull out of the Caspian.

The Azeri government take may not be leveraged to the upside but, neither is it leveraged to the downside. It simply carries on regardless & in many ways acts as an incentive for contractors such as AAZ to continue to invest in the country for the long term.
There has to be some periods of upside for the contractors in the PSA, else there will simply will be no willing contractors & that is clearly not appealing for the state.

Precious metal mining is still a very small operation in the context of the Azeri state as a whole & has its uses for Azerbaijan. It can be held up as a joint success story & its also bringing in new technology & skills that did not exist before.

I am lead to believe that AAZ first looked at this project 2+ years ago.
We also know they have looked in Oman, Georgia, Turkey & I'm quite sure that Reza has had/got a pile of propositions on his desk for consideration so, I don't consider this a one-and-done diversification.

The global economy is in a mess and tensions are rising across the world … countries such as Azerbaijan need friends a whole load more than they need enemies right now

[the stigologist] 22/7/2020 14:57

For chart lovers take a look at XSG

I don't know anything about it

[bleepy] 22/7/2020 14:56

The psa renewal only applies to the open pit as other mines have long lead times. The present psa lease on open pits runs out 2024/5. By then who knows the open pits might well be exhausted and not need psa extension. Should it do then psa extension @ 2x5yr blocks are a formality. And we hear that formal application has been placed. That infers they expect to be mining the open pit for many many years.

Aaz have decided to bring Gedabek u/g on stream in Q4 with an initial 15yr psa agreement same as other prospects.

[bleepy] 22/7/2020 14:44

“The current JORC (2012) Resource of 320,000 ounces of gold (Indicated) and 197,000 ounces of gold (Inferred) totals 517,000 ounces of gold at 2 grammes per tonne gold at a cut-off grade of 1.0 gramme per tonne of gold. According to Conroy Gold, the majority of the drilling to date is to a depth of less than 200 metres and a maximum depth of 350 metres. The deposit remains open in all directions, as well as to depth, and excellent gold intersections, e.g. 16.6 metres at 6.5 grammes per tonne of gold, have been recorded outside the current resource area.“


517,000x$900(after costs deducted) = $465ml

At 50,000ozs/yr = 10yrs production @ 55% share earns Aaz $255.75ml

If and when pog attains $2,600oz then above profit doubles.

If exploration doubles the present resource.....Stephen Westhead has had the last 12mths to examine Conroy Gold admin docs and confer with their geologists assessing the possibility of 8ml+ ozs Au with an aggressive exploration strategy.

[cinoib] 22/7/2020 14:37

cannonfodd, no good buying in dearer or it wouldn't be cricket. Patience and see what happens, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this, but time will tell.

[wanobi] 22/7/2020 14:30

AAZ -

Could this be another reason for AAZ to be interested in Conroy!!!

Cheers
Wan :-)

[ptolemy] 22/7/2020 14:24

Matt,

I hope you don't consider discussing political risk as 'bickering' but when you talk about stakeholders you rarely include the Azeri Government.

Yes, people in Gedabek are doing well, Yes, shareholders have been rewarded many times over, Yes management may be some thing special (I can't comment). Yes, Western governments may seize or devalue our wealth and miners seem a logical 'hiding place.' But AAZ investors should recognise that the Azeri government may also have ill intentions.

Being fixed to production, the Azeri Government return is less leveraged than other stakeholders. Daily, the Azeri's see their asset leaving the country at a time when their balance sheet is under huge strain. How do they justify to their people; foreigners are getting wealthy at our expense? If you add endemic corruption to the mix, I'm unable to call it a safe investment. Canada, perhaps, but Azerbaijan? I have spent 10-days in Baku and met with government officials and doing business, whilst satisfying business principles, is not easy (well, not for me).

Convoy is the deal that could be done in a hurry and I suspect negotiating it began shortly after the Azeri Government consulted NY consultants. It's also a potential fallback position if renewal of the PSA turn out to be more than a formality.

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 14:23

'10 days profit spent on it, that’s it!'

Brilliant!!!

[cannonfodd3r] 22/7/2020 14:18

And then sell it on for a much inflated price! People were winging not long ago that explorers were valued more than aaz, well now they have that exploratory side too.

I admit that getting it to production is a big ask but I’m not sure that’s the plan, get it proved up, let Stephen and bill spend a little more time at home which will please them and when everything is in place let someone else take on the battle of opening a mine for a very healthy profit. It’s small change and has the potential to give a very healthy return. What’s not to like?
Meanwhile we sit and await the porphyry news which will send the price sky rocketing.
10 days profit spent on it, that’s it!

Are you winging because you want back in cheaper cinoib? That’s what you normally do

[brasso3] 22/7/2020 14:05

I think GGP and SOLG share prices have shown that you do not always need to get into production to create value. If AAZ can help get this resource above 1m ounces then it will be a bargain at the price paid.

[gold finger 1] 22/7/2020 14:05

People, this company is turning out about $370,600 a day now.

[lefrene] 22/7/2020 14:03

gf1, if it was "on" it would all have been gone a long time ago! :¬)

[gold finger 1] 22/7/2020 13:59

Who actually owns all this land this gold is on?

[lefrene] 22/7/2020 13:51

One notices how far Conroy's price has come in the last few weeks, so it's been good for them at least!

So who is going to be selling the picks and shovels in rural Ireland?

[digger18] 22/7/2020 13:41

Good points made today Matt and I for one can see that the Good old US Is likely to be our major trading Partner, snd we know who will dictate the terms. Falling out with Russia, China, Europe, in a time of financial crisis. I and very happy to stay long here.

[donald pond] 22/7/2020 13:34

I just got around to watching the Proactive interview with the boss of Conroy. His enthusiasm is clear, and it was interesting to hear that he believes this would be the first gold mine in Ireland. My family has roots in rural Ireland and other than sustenance farming, not much has gone on there. There is a real danger of confirmation bias creeping in, and falling into the trap of saying "well if there was gold in Ireland wouldn't someone have found it by now" but the truth is that most of the country has had similar economic conditions to rural Azerbaijan. There is absolutely no reason why there might not be significant deposits there. I'm looking forward to hearing more about the geology and am actually quite excited.

[gold finger 1] 22/7/2020 12:55

They may be able to hold the AAZ share price down.
But one thing is for sure, this is a cash cow, throwing money out.
That they can't change.

[saturdaygirl] 22/7/2020 12:42

Gold back testing the resistance line and now maybe the new support line .

[bo doodak] 22/7/2020 12:11

Not followed Conroy but on first glance it might be that the Prof while an asset in some ways, has also been a liability in many others in hindering progress.

[gold finger 1] 22/7/2020 12:10

So it seems that all the regular posters that hold seem to be of the same opinion.
It's could be be very shrewd piece of business for very little outlay.
Its a case that conroy needed money and support, AZZ have money and the know how.
Thats just how life is. Better 45% of something for conroy than 100% of nothing.

[mattjos] 22/7/2020 12:07

Reza is an entrepreneur. He moved from selling Caviar to Gold Mining in Azerbaijan & I am guessing that, at the time, there were more than a few raised eyebrows with that decision!

He's backed his judgement on more than one occasion here .. forgoing salary and lending money to the company to ensure it survived and flourished.

As investors in the company we are, in effect, backing Reza and the team he has assembled about him. Doesn't mater how good the opportunity may be, if you ain't got the talent, it wont bear fruit.

AAZ has over 1,000 people involved in it now and has almost single-handedly given hope and economic prosperity to people in/about Gedabek & has rewarded shareholders in the company who have backed it / him to date.

If he & his hand-picked team scent an opportunity here to add value & grow the business then, whilst past performance is no absolute guarantee, it does suggest shareholders would be wise to let him / them run with it.

Conroy were clearly never going to deliver this project on their own .. no funds, no mining expertise & frankly, insufficient time to keep trying on their own before the CEO pegs it. However, they have assembled a wealth of data that goes back a helluva long way (read the IPO Docs) & much like the original Russian data on Gedabek, it points towards there being a big resource there … certainly much, much bigger than has already been JORC'd.

From a €2m initial investment, can we add tangible value to proposition such that we see a return on that investment?

I suspect the answer is a definite Yes.

Can we actually bring it into Production? Too early to tell but, assuming we take one step at a time and keep building towards that target then, it's a possibility that will grow in likelihood.

[bo doodak] 22/7/2020 12:05

A nagging worry is the coming review into the country's tax structure, and the increased theft of already taxed accumulated wealth, which includes ISA's. There can be no doubt the changes will be disadvantageous. I'm assuming the gvt will not remove primary residence CGT exemption yet, but even that may be fully or partially removed in time.

All shares held in ISA's - are they really secure above the FCA limit? I'd suggest not, especially in a world of excessive turmoil. If the banks go down then we may find these holdings have 'evaporated', even though supposedly segregated. Do you really trust segregation to work just when you need it most?

All that's left is physical share certs for absolute certainty but then there is the CGT aspect to resolve.

Its a hard one to call.

[gold finger 1] 22/7/2020 12:01

Well i am very happy with the JV deal.
I was worried that we would be paying out many tens of millions to get a JV. But it seems this deal gives us a chance of being in a company at a bargain price.
How many companies would have looked at AAZ at 4p a few years ago,with a market cap of only about 4.5m pounds. About the same as conroy before yesterdays news.

This JV shows me that they have plenty in the pipeline to keep us going in az for many years to come.

[klosters65] 22/7/2020 11:51

There are some wealthy people in Ireland. I am hopeful that our JV with Conroy produces some much needed new Investors. It seems like a cracking deal for AAZ to me.