Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 17:28

many thanx all for your continued efforts and great posts,,, greatly appreciated by all of us and those looking in for sure,,, what times we live in and what a game this is... wishing you all a fine evening, cheers Wan :-) one beer down :-) LOL

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 17:16

rather perversely as an AAZ shareholder I actually welcome the higher price of oil,,,,, yes it means our energy costs are going up,,, but its tiny really,,, the main thing to me is greater stability in AZER with better revenue expectations coming from their oil PSA's,,,, and that to me should keep the wolf from the door of AAZ,,, if there ever was a wolf that is :-) LOL,,,, hopefully you get my point,,, cheers Wan :-)

[donald pond] 05/5/2020 17:09

The facts are harsh, but the share price is where it was 11 months ago, despite the price of gold being near $400 higher. So that means that all of the effort that the company has gone to over the last year is valued by the market at significantly less than nothing. As far as Mr Market is concerned, AAZ has gone backwards.
We suspect this is not true, but it does highlight how little visible progress has been made. As bozzy mentions, for a company that highlights how quickly it can bring mines into production, there's been little evidence of this recently. But we need to have better communication than this. I assume the dead hand of the government is slowing things down, but since last August we've had that hanging over AAZ. It needs to change.

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 17:04

yep, full on learning experience for me cmb,, crazy times :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[callmebwana] 05/5/2020 17:03

Thank you for your feedback guys.
I respect all your decisions,as I said we play it all in our own ways.
I have to thank you Bumpa for AVCT.
I did not buy in straight away,it was because of the cancer treatment and I did my DYOR on it.This virus came out of the blue and here we are today.
My internet is a wind up clock here so I have done no trades at all. Like you say it is a traders market for sure.
Time for Wan to practis and learn.:0)
ATB.

[bozzy_s] 05/5/2020 16:55

I'm starting to understand people's frustration at the lack of news. These are unprecedented times, with strict restrictions on workplaces that remain open.

But the lack of news and direction goes back before Covid-19 restrictions.

AAZ mentioned it's track record of quickly bringing discoveries into production (Ugur), 26 months ago. No new mines since then, or for the foreseeable it appears.

I'm sure they do have expansion plans. For that reason I won't be selling my shares. I just hope they find a way of communicating those plans to us.

I'd even support them if they planned to be a cash cow, using existing facilities and aiming for a steady 70k GEOs per year for the long term, paying say 95% of FCF as a dividend. No plans for expansion or equipment purchases. Just paying out annual earnings as a dividend.

We need something though. We know the 2019 results will be great. We need an increased dividend and clear plans for increasing output.

[bumpa33] 05/5/2020 16:46

CMB - with respect, if you don’t take profits - and in some cases fantastic ones - in this mkt then frankly I’d question the sanity of those not doing so.

You’ve just had a whopper of a mkt crash, we’re in the middle of a worldwide pandemic, the stats on unemployment claims are horrific, the hits to gdp worldwide look equally horrific, we don’t know what the short, medium or long term effects of all this are going to be, the Fed is trying to prop the whole thing up with trillions added to the deficit, rates at zero and goosing the S&P seemingly every single evening in the futures mkt.

Need I go on?

If ever there was a traders mkt, this is it - fundamentals in just about every aspect have gone out of the window and when that’s the case, all you can do is go with the action, keeping one eye on the exit.

[mr roper] 05/5/2020 16:41

4ds drug is not on the Recovery trial, yet. It may be in time but not yet. Who knows might get an rns later this week saying it is....

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 16:31

aha good to know, on both counts,,, thanx MF, cheers Wan :-)

[mad foetus] 05/5/2020 16:25

That's the DDDD doctor but possibly not the same trial. AAU is motoring, get in!

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 16:12

aha you mean this MF - is that 4D for sure?

I think this is the situation MF,,,, ""The RECOVERY trial is UK wide and using 5 or so existing drugs to test effectiveness on C19. Our trial is looking at combination therapies and is small scale in first instance to quickly find out if it’s worth rolling out.""

Cheers
Wan :-)

[pogue] 05/5/2020 16:10

Regards the pharma bingo stocks I am leaning towards holding the picks and shovel stocks as the safer ones going forward, ORPH, REAT, and FDBK etc, they wont have the same growth as AVCT DDDD etc but on the other hand they are less likely to fail spectacularly, hopefully. I am still in AVCT, DDDD etc but am more likely to sell out my remaining holdings on a whiff of a problem with their products. Probably be the last to know though lol
A learning curve for me in small pharmas as always avoided them as lottery stocks, ORPH I only got into as they presented the same night as AAZ last year, I liked, and felt safer with, the picks and shovels angle and the large director holdings.

[mad foetus] 05/5/2020 16:10

On the DDDD thread they've found a BBC clip with the doctor who is running the DDDD trial. Interesting

[swallowsflysouth] 05/5/2020 15:52

Rb agree with you on pharmos and done the same except for 4D. I like its approach to the treatment of disease. If they can make it work, (the big question as always) then i would have thought it would be one of the favoured ways of treating cv19 as i think there might be issues with vaccines for cv19 as it would appear to be a fast moving target in acquiring new strains and having a vaccination on a 3-monthly basis might appeal to the big pharmos but not to the general public. The point being about 4D approach is it is treating the symptoms not the virus, so if it works then should work on all strains of the disease and possibly on all organ inflammation not just the lungs.

[the stigologist] 05/5/2020 15:40

Re AVCT

I'm still hearing people bearish on this story. Whilst there will be volatility and competition part of Govt response (US $25bn budget for testing alone + $1.5bn Dragons Den / Shark Tank diagnostics competition) is about not whether these tests work but building infrastructure for next pandemic aversion AND provide 'Corporate Welfare'. In that regard AVCT with US Govt partners and high profile US Corp backing is astoundingly well positioned.

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 15:38

the book is just 9 stops away now Rb :-) LOL,,, looking forward to it :-) thanx, cheers Wan :-)

[gold finger 1] 05/5/2020 15:36

Mad foetus

i have just looked at the charts and it's very interesting.
To get back to all time highs of sept we would have to rise 43%.
To drop back to the resent low we would have to fall by 43%.
I think the only thing that is going to get us to all time highs will be news on a good LOM extension.
Lets hope it comes before the market and gold turn down at some point.
We don't need good news coming after a down turn and any rise just putting us back to where we are.

[mattjos] 05/5/2020 15:34

when in doubt, go back and re-read the IPO docs and the Behre Dolbear valuation report (using what are now far too low metal price3s and totally wrong £:$ rate).

There is value on offer & growth & dividend.

[mattjos] 05/5/2020 15:31

effectively a volatile but, ultimately sideways drift in the share price getting on for 11 months now

[the stigologist] 05/5/2020 15:30

Myles McNulty opining on AVCT again ahead of tomorrows results 7am and investor webcast at 5pm

I expect we’ll hit £500m mkt cap (~240p) pre-commencement of sales, if the test is developed successfully and CE marking secured. Timeframe for that – May/June.

Thereafter I think sales will just grow exponentially. *Once £1bn market cap (~480p) mkt cap is surpassed* (which I believe will happen once sales commence), *the share price could go anywhere*

I’ve always had a *long-term valuation target of £4bn mkt cap (a little under £20/s), based on the Sanofi / Ablynx transaction* But on top of the antibody memetic platform, *we also have targeted chemo and the COVID-19 angle* As such, I think it really is impossible to place any sort of target price on the stock.

Its technology could literally lead the global war against the pandemic, and in the longer term its therapeutics division could *genuinely reshape the field of cancer treatment*. Gross sales annually for this second market alone would be several hundred billion dollars. How do you put a value on the company that could ultimately take a significant chunk of it?

In my opinion, it’s dangerous to place a specific exit price for yourself on a company like this. I certainly haven’t for myself. Conventional valuation metrics do not apply, and total addressable market (‘TAM’) calculations are just pie in the sky, really. If I had to point out a TAM for Avacta, I could say that the company is currently trading on much less than 0.1% of its ultimate TAM. Perhaps around 0.05%, at the moment. Even accounting for all of the development and commercialisation risks ahead, that is far too low by many multiples – in my opinion, at least!

I won’t give advice on what to do with your shares – but what I can say is what I’m doing, and that is just to let the story play out. The ideal scenario would really be for the decision to be taken from my hands, with a takeover of the company by a major. Indeed, this is what I think will ultimately transpire.

[riggerbeautz] 05/5/2020 15:27

CMB just to pick up on your comment re profit taking AVCT, it’s a trading share for me because I don’t like pharma’s, don’t really understand them and generally until Covid, most are jam tomorrow stories worse than any oiler or prospector, at least those companies stick something in the ground. Pharma plays forever blind you will with science and often deliver little.

Once in awhile a good one delivers but I can’t be bothered researching them. That said with all the hype around Covid plays, anything with a pipeline, big enough following and any mention of progress is going to motor so it would be foolish not to trade an opportunity, specially when a fair few here were so bullish.

Can’t remember what I made in my 2 trades, maybe 25-30% on little effort. That was good enough for me :)

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 15:25

well done KS, just as you predicted :-) excellent LOL :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 05/5/2020 15:24

AAZ share price - to me, right now, its all down to uncertainty,,, LOM/PSA, AZERGOV & future expansion plans are all uncertain and we all know the market hates uncertainty,, IF and always it is an IF,,, we get acceptable/satisfactory clarity on those things in May along with amazing financials, nice divi and so on,,,, it will,,, as sure as 'eggs is eggs' rise to new ATH's very very fast.... just got to sit tight and let the game play out,,, if, as I do, we believe in managements ability,,, which so far has been excellent.... if not, all one can do is sell..... black swans please stay away :-) LOL LOL,,,, GLA holders, cheers Wan :-)