Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 15:36

some great stuff in there, not least of which;

"Manipulation of markets can work effectively in the short term. However, in the long term prices will be dictated by the global supply and the global demand of 7 billion people, many in Asia who believe in gold as a store of wealth. Not to mention, sovereign central banks such as the People’s Bank of China and the Russian central bank – who also believe in gold as an important monetary asset."

and

"We know for an absolute fact that precious metals prices are manipulated. (The evidence is absolutely overwhelming, and we would like to offer special thanks to GATA (and now Deutsche Bank) for proving it without a shadow of doubt over many years’ worth of tireless work.) Current prices of gold and silver are therefore fake, and in our view, far below what they would be in an honest market. When the Deep State Crime Syndicate loses control over prices, which could result from any one of a large number of likely developments, true prices will be re-established, a process that was occurring in 1980 and again in 2011 before being sabotaged both times. As fake prices are crushed and honest ones return, a global “herd” buying phenomenon could develop, as has happened in the past. This would lead to significant shortages of available physical metals and a meaningful increase in premiums. History has been clear that when it comes to precious metals, it is always best to buy in halcyon times, particularly if one can do so at a good price."

so, I guess the question is now when will true value out!?

Could be very interesting if one is positioned correctly at the time...…

thanx again conundrum for opening my eyes to this fact...

cheers Wan

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 15:15

not at all conundrum, your post is much appreciated, thanx, cheers Wan

[conundrum] 09/12/2018 14:04

A couple of articles re manipulation below as requested.
I haven't the time to look for better articles on the subject.

You may also wish to search for articles on the disconnect between the amount of physical gold in the world, and the amount of gold traded on the paper market.

Sorry my reply is short and rushed

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 11:58

certainly is another test week ahead for the markets, I still think 2600 is the big one Bumpa, break that and down we go to test 2400 and possibly beyond!!


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

DMA cross is very negative also!!


Cheers Wan

[2sporrans] 09/12/2018 11:40

winter of discontent, red robbo and the flying pickets, stagflation....
...ahhh, the good old days.

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 11:00

thanx conundrum, how do the banks manipulate the POG, its not just down to supply & demand then? cheers Wan

[conundrum] 09/12/2018 10:55

I have been reading that gold could reach $10,000 an ounce for many a year.

The price got close to $2,000 an ounce, since then the big banks have been manipulating the price of gold and silver, because they want the US$ to be regarded as a safe have and not gold.

Article below is from 2010, just to prove the story isn't new

[graylyn1] 09/12/2018 10:39

Cinoib, I very much remember the 70's I am 64 and my first mortgage payment nearly sunk me @ 17% interest we really don't want that! Trouble is people are not encouraged to save today or mend items that break, just get another loan, credit card or increase your overdraft throw it away and buy a new one. I have purchased many second hand items in my life to see things through without incurring extra debt. The whole system is just a mess imo. In my mind the Labour party is DEAD it is now the Communist party!

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 10:19

I suppose its a simple question really; in the next crash, will people run to cash or run to gold ? cheers Wan

[2sporrans] 09/12/2018 10:05

welcome zangdook.

as for the jewish lobby and netanyahu's thumb:

,,.....but i know that israel does not stand alone. i know that america stands with israel,, [bn quote]

but ain't Bibi feeling the heat a little of late?
those bribery charges seem to have him and his missus rattled:



tut tut.
shouldn't have tried those tricks at home bibi.


bettcha he comes out laughing though....yet again.

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:57

plenty of Gold bulls out there;

Gold To Hit New All-Time Record Highs In 2019 (On Route To A $5,000 – $10,000 Price Range Later On) April 21, 2018 49 5079
“Gold has been an unloved asset class for years but that is about to change. I am expecting a bear market in equities and rising yields as a…”
by Brian Delaney via GoldSeek
– ‘Powerful bull market’ will likely send gold to $5,000 to $10,000
– If USD & Treasuries keep falling, stocks may decline at ‘moment’s notice’
– Traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds will not protect investors
– “Gold will replace bonds as the go-to hedge”



cheers Wan

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:43

some research that may help me;

What Did Smart Money Do In the 1929 Crash and Aftermath?
During the same bear market period smart-money moved from the plunging equity markets (i.e. financial assets) to hard asset investments, like Homestake Mining - which is used heretofore as a surrogate for all gold stocks. The stock price of this gold mining company soared relentlessly upward during the entire bear market. Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.

if that happened at AAZ I could retire :-)

also, During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost quadrupled.

question is; will it be the same this time around, does gold still have its mystical allure?

cheers Wan

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:34

thanx Bumpa, I think the whole world is now expecting a crash, a lot speaking of the inevitability of the 'big one',,, bit like earthquakes I guess... when these things happen they happen very fast, so either one sits in cash and short term trades like your good-self, or one accepts the risk and stays in as it could be 2 years away or 2days!! who knows!

My approach is a bit of both I suppose, I have liquidated a lot of stocks recently that were in the red, I have 2 more in the red right now, one in tungsten, the other in oil, they may have to go soon depending upon what I see next week. As for AAZ, my average is around 55p so there is some headroom there, but I've lost on the others, so lets say 65p I can be out make some profit, stay in cash and look to buy in again around the bottom....

So, the problem I have right now...
1 - Will Gold rise in the event of a crash, I'd say yes, you?
2 - Will AAZ being a gold miner rise with it, or crash with everything else, I'd say I don't know, you?
3 - Should I sell down a lot of AAZ now to my breakeven cash point so what's left are free shares to ride out the earthquake - that's up to me and I'm undecided at this point.
4 - or, do I buy more AAZ if the 80p line holds and hope the markets are ok for a further 2 years - no idea, up to me to decide..

all good fun stuff at the moment, but should things turn really ugly it's my retirement funds on the line here!!! Risk management is a very tricky thing :-)


Cheers all, Wan

[zangdook] 09/12/2018 09:30

Macron-Trump was best summed up by the pictures of them planting a tree in the WH grounds followed by pictures next day of the site with no tree. Gotta love Trump.

But dragging s Chinese national off a plane and throwing her in jail for using a British bank to conduct business between China and Iran, just because the US government is under Netanyahu's thumb, is ridiculous overreach and won't end well for the US. Trudeau is even stupider than Macron.

back on topic, I made a maiden purchase and am now sitting at a loss...

[le0nard] 09/12/2018 09:01

I know you guys have lots of AAZ shares and well played to you for getting in early. But what do you guys have in the way of physical gold. Physical as in gold/silver you actually can touch not ETFs or futures contracts, because when the SHTF and the brokerages go belly up you will need it.
FYI AAZ is my largest holding by far.

[bumpa33] 08/12/2018 23:27

I follow a fair number of traders and TA guys on the markets, in particular the S&P, in line with what I feel (after last week) all of them now think we’re in real trouble.

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 21:01

It's a mess 2sp ... I fear but, also believe, that both the U.K. and the world has to go significantly backwards from here before it can finally go forward. Still too much unfinished business & unfinished businesses from 07/08.Russia looks best set to come out strongest next time around .... their debt levels are negligible.Despite continued buying am still averaged well below 20p here therefore, still plenty of headroom to keep buying all the way through 2019 as the stage gets set for the inevitable.

[2sporrans] 08/12/2018 16:55

neat summary of the fed rate rise v balance sht reduction 'trade off' Matt.

if the next usa recession is deep/long, guess there will be qe4, maybe with accent on buying up longer dated bonds, like 15-30yr.
though the bal. sht expansion : gdp raise ratio will be ever higher.....guess the headache will be mild compared with the dilemma facing europe[uk] and japan.
i doubt either will have fully curtailed their ongoing qe by early 2020.

so could be $trillions of liquidity injection, very little going the productive investment channel, the great majority chasing financial assets - include gold in that.
just like before, only moreso.

also, over 2008-11, china was able to stimulate to keep gdp growth above 10pc pa.; huge help in buoying up global growth + trade was pretty free flowing back then
no way can this be repeated 2019-20.
china will be challenged to make 5% growth during global slowdown you anticipate, even with their [necessary] debt-de-leverage put on hold.
guess china gdp may even be 50% higher than 2011....but even the extra 'weight' looks like will fall well short of what required to provide similar stimulus contribution.
and there is also the trade 'war' conundrum....

rest of the world, even the better managed, stronger economies, plagued by similar high/higher debt:gdp levels esp. household and gov't if not corporate too.
fiscal expansion looks v. dangerous 'remedy', almost anywhere/everywhere.

[bleepy] 08/12/2018 15:47

“An internal estimate for the near down dip continuity of the Gadir mineralisation zone (over about 80m) provided some 750,000 tonnes of mineralisation at an average grade of about 4.5 grammes per tonne gold”

750,000 x 4.5 = 3.375ml gms Au approx 120,000ozs Au.

Very nice and that’s not taking into account the presence of other metals such as copper and silver, geo’s could be higher.

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 14:50

The Fed started to raise rates in December 2015 … Gold was then $1,061

The overriding 'advice' then from all the 'professionals' was to sell Gold as it did not offer a coupon, it costs to store it physically and it supposedly always fell during previous periods of rising rates.
Historical statistics actually debunk the 'Gold falls as rates rose' & prove the opposite!!

Now, 3 years into this cycle of rising rates, Gold has so far risen 17% from 1061 to 1240.

(Over same timeframe, AAZ has risen just about 1,800% from 5p to 88p!)

For me, Gold appears to be telling investors that as interest rates rise, so too the risks are rising that the Fed is hiking rates straight into the next crisis - arguably gold is the proxy for a cause & effect feedback loop of rising rates.

Statistically it takes a 4% cut in interest rates to stave off a recession in the USA so, you can understand why the FED is keen to try and get rates back to that 4% level … so that it has the necessary room to cut rates by 4% when the next recession arrives.
Problem is at the same time as they are raising rates they are also shrinking the size of the Fed balance sheet (still bloated by the effects of the last 3 rounds of QE).
Supposedly this concurrent balance sheet shrinkage is akin to an additional 1% of interest rates so, one can argue the 'real' rate is currently 3.25%. With two more rises looking certain (this month & during H1 2019) we'd then be at a 'real' rate of 3.75%.

Rates got up 5.25% in 2007 before that crisis hit the world & the FED was forced to cut rates to 0.25%.
I cannot see rates getting up as high as 5.25% this time around … over the last 11 years, global debt has gone through the roof as nations, corporates and individuals have taken on more & more debt, stimulated by near zero rates.

Three more rate rises from here, in conjunction with ongoing Fed Balance Sheet reduction, will take us to the important combined 'real' 4% level.

I believe that is as high as they will manage to get them before the next recession arrives and rates ae forced back down to virtually zero once again.
3% Fed headline rate + the equivalent of an additional 1% as a consequence of Balance Sheet reduction.

As far as I am concerned, the next recession & therefore the next rounds of stimulus will arrive during H2 2019 / early 2020.

QE1 was launched in December 2008 & was followed by QE2 .. these two operations went to July 2011 … in that timescale, Gold went from $700/oz to $1,900/oz. near as damn a 250% increase in value.

Gold in the region of $2,600 - $3,000 / oz in a 2-3 years time looks entirely feasible to me & that is why I intend to sit tight here, keep accumulating more shares, collect the dividend & wait for AAZ to reach its true value, which I believe is helluva lot closer to £5/share than it is today