Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bleepy] 12/8/2018 17:59

Well done Mattjos for moderating yet another disingenuous poster.

[mattjos] 12/8/2018 16:44

Little wonder Turks have been keen to get their hands on physical gold ...

[mattjos] 12/8/2018 15:58

Thanks Bumpa .. we sell into Russia. Historically, the customers there wanted to transact in US$ but, for all our sales there, since the Crimea related sanctions were imposed on Russia, new & existing customers in Russia have insisted that transactions are in EUR€ & so worded their contracts.
Same for Turkey, Qatar, UAE & curiously Saudi Arabia in several cases.
Our US$ account is used less and less frequently nowadays. Only really for USA sourced components.

No doubt in my mind that there is growing resistance to the use of US$ as the settlement currency for international trade.

For many, the last financial crisis emanated from the USA Mortgage backed securities fraud & its impact on the global economy.
Now many of the countries affected then are being impacted once again as a consequence of QE & its inevitable reversal now being enacted.
Having stuffed cheap debt across the world during the QE phase, the Fed looks determined to push ahead with rate rises & QT ... this is absolutely causing a liquidity problem as monies now wash back towards the USA & has been further incentivised by the USA Corporation Tax cuts & re-shoring of corporate cash piles.

The USA may argue that it (again) is doing 'the heavy lifting' right now and that other Central Banks have to get on-board with rate rises .. if they do not do so then, Argentina, Venezuala & Turkey scenarios await any that do not row along with them.

This will likely further harden resistance to using the US$.

It's an interesting dynamic .... for how much longer will European & Japanese Central Banks resist the pull of the FED before they too start tightening?

This is still all a huge gamble really .... during the last 10 years, there has not been anything like sufficient reduction of debt levels around the world .. in fact, quite the opposite.
We are going into a new cycle of rising interest rates with more debt than ever before & no one really knows where or when in this rising cycle will consumer & corporate confidence evaporate and the next crash start.

It's not just private individuals that are unable to cope with interest rates retuning to the prior 'normal' levels of 5-6% ... entire nations will fold before that level is reached. The USA itself would struggle to pay the interest on its own debts.

As/when that confidence is shattered this time around, will Gold be the go-to defensive action? No one can really know for sure but, there seems plenty of evidence that certain nations & peoples (China, Turkey, Russia, India) are not waiting to find out and be forced to pay much more for it .. they are continuing to accumulate now in readiness for the next crisis & to try and reduce their dependence on the US$.
Azerbaijan has a stated intent to increase its gold reserves and in that quest, AAZ continues to add physical gold to their coffers every month on a 'no commercial risk' basis to the government there. That would seem to be a quite satisfactory dynamic for both parties & so I do not see there being an outsize risk of the state doing anything other than let this status quo persist.

As to here in the UK, there looks to me to be a sizeable risk that the current govt. leadership will be challenged and falter before we even get to the March 2019 BREXIT finishing-line. Likely during September/October.
Were that to transpire, it will have an inevitable impact on GB£ and it may find itself dropping to near parity with both USD & EUR.

I do see big risks to the downside for markets this Autumn but, I equally can see how our investment in AAZ should offer good protection with both a dividend and potential for price increase driven by the Q3 production update and details / JORC from the exploration update.

Current events in Turkey may only be an early warning of what is coming down the shute in next 10-12 weeks. I'll be staying put here and look forward to news from the company. At the current price level we are still far to cheap .... any significant increase on proven reserves will absolutely put us firmly on the radar of other, much larger gold mining operations around the world.

[joey wilson] 12/8/2018 15:09

What does AAZ mean ????? Only joking. Just hoping this doesn't drop any more although would just continue to buy what I could afford if it does.JW

[bumpa33] 12/8/2018 14:53

More Russia $ noises...

[jaspoland] 12/8/2018 14:50

Good move Mattjos. Let's get back to AAZ

[lefrene] 12/8/2018 00:20

wanobi, one of the simplest things to do for long term safety, is to buy a FTSE100 ETF in late August to late September and then sell it late February to late March, then hold cash until the next late August/September. If you look back over the decades it works, and you can forget about your dosh and live your life :¬)

[celeritas] 11/8/2018 22:01

Wanobi, are you writing a dissertation for your last uni year.
Maybe doing a psychology course.

[brasso3] 11/8/2018 20:57

Thats better! Zzzzzzzz

wanobi11 Aug '18 - 20:51 - 14443 of 14444 (Filtered)

wanobi11 Aug '18 - 20:53 - 14444 of 14444 (Filtered)

Go and read some books FFS! Lazy traders/ investors who want everyone else to do the leg work for them.

[bumpa33] 11/8/2018 20:50

You learn by making your own mistakes, there are no short cuts.

[goodgrief] 11/8/2018 20:38

And start reading the weekly stock market mags...

[goodgrief] 11/8/2018 20:37

Best place might be to start a 'share investment for beginners' thread ....ppplleeeaaasse!