Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 05/8/2018 15:29

Another thing - increasing reports out there of a global housing slowdown, in the media plus some guys I follow on Twitter and SeekingAlpha reporting specifically on US housing slowdown/fall - in some areas the drying up of Chinese buying somewhat ironically - when the one major asset that most people hold starts looking shaky I’m not sure how much stomach the US consumer/public will have for the “near term pain” Trump talks about in relation to the trade war

[bumpa33] 05/8/2018 13:35

i'm not so sure Trump is 'winning' the trade war with China, or indeed even can win it - the Chinese hold a few nuclear options over the US, one being their significant holding of US treasuries. Though i'm sure unrelated (maybe?) it was interesting to note a week back the reported almost complete dumping of US treasuries by Russia - though their holding was miniscule by comparison.



whilst reports out there comment on this China nuclear option, most go to say that they doubt the Chinese would start dumping, for a number of reasons, what i haven't seen them saying is what the effect of just turning off the taps would be - ie no further purchases - just at the time when the US is looking to further increase its balance sheet?

Whilst i don't think Trump is a fool, by any stretch of the imagination, i do think in time he will find he has bitten off more than he can chew - and at best maybe achieve an effective stalemate, at worst a crushing defeat.



Already he has had to contend with a rising dollar, which in part is going to negate the tariffs he's trying to implement whilst simultaneously putting pressure on US consumers. Also what about the effect on US businesses reliant on Chinese manufacturing and/or chinese sourced parts and materials?

Whilst it is one of the ultimate conspiracy theories around, i give some credence to the notion that moves are afoot to remove the $ as the worlds reserve currency. If that is the case there may never be a better time to make the move nor a better fall guy to lay the blame on.

edit: I just get the feeling that Trump is playing his aces out in the open, but the Chinese still have a whole deck - or two - shoved up their sleeve.

[wanobi] 05/8/2018 08:11

whilst not specifically about aaz,, saw this today,,, aaz fits the headline!! hxxp://usanewsgroup.com/2018/06/19/the-real-money-for-investors-is-focusing-on-gold-mines-that-are-near-term-producers/

[2sporrans] 04/8/2018 16:31

Good points wrt TrumP Matt.

Though I find it hard to warm to him, let alone some of the toadies in his tent, he is grasping some thistles that [as he keeps saying] ought to have been long ago.

The Chinese have made Intellectual Property extraction a cornerstone of policy and the way business/trade functions there - like you describe and more.
The Europeans should bear much more of the costs for NATO which shelters them far more than the US.
Should the Germans be becoming ever more dependent upon Russian Gas [pipelines]?
And a few more.

Yet, while I can see e.g. that his Team is using the Tariff stick to beat the Chinese with [They import so much less than US from them + export far more, also much more trade relative to GDP, the share of the pain is disproportional in China.] I wonder about the unforseen consequences, especially if the Chinese don't kow-tow.
Just how well are the complexities and extents of international supply chains understood by Politicos?
Not well at all to judge by our own lot vis Brexit.
It's all very well to say that imports are this, exports are that.....but seems to me "this" and "that" are end-process sales takes; i.e. there's a huge flow, all which ways, within industries, companies even, which are not captured by this final 'point of sale' take.
Sure, companies will adapt; they always to over time.
But not necessarily in the way the Trump Team hopes or expects methinks.
To the extent American companies are being hurt by tariffs, their response often seems to be to increase or even commence new production overseas. Pretty much an acceleration of the Globalisation process?
Also TT is fighting a losing game in protecting industries that are dying anyway - e.g. Coal - The ugliest of the 3 Hydrocarbon sisters [Gas the prettier one].
This is just a cynical play to his voter camp ploy.

To the extent TT elects to and succeeds in cooperation rather than conflict with EU and others reasonably aligned with US values/interests, then it will be far more successful in 'persuading' China to mend its ways.
Conflict with EU and others naturally pushes them to greater cooperation with China and tolerance of it's mis-practices.
At least China cannot be accused of isolationism, it's a huge international investor as well as trader albeit its activities are a mixed blessing.
E.g. Belt & Road isn't all good for China's 'partners' for sure; yet it can be of mutual benefit. Depends so much upon the quality of the partners politicos and negotiators.
So much corruption, short termist and plain incompetence about.

Just an aside on Russia/Putin.
I've a hunch that, somewhere down the line, somehow, international acceptance of Crimea being Russian will be cut from other deals and be part of some kind of resolution of the [East] Ukraine problem. Sommat like E. Uk. gets high automony but still part of Ukraine for high level Gov't - incld. military, foreign policy, high level law. Then, to extent Ukraine looks West, Putin looks the other way.
Look, I'm no apologist for Putin; a lot of very nasty doings from his police state machine.
But historically, Crimea was Russian a very long time; hence 80% of pop. Russkies. Only became part of the Ukraine in 1954 as part of machinations of Kruschev - Boss of USSR and a vodka soddled Ukrainian. Back then Ukraine was effectively a department; it certainly was not an independent state in the least, nor envisaged as such.
I'm sure the Putin team will sell this one to the TT.
Deal.

[2sporrans] 04/8/2018 15:07

Thanks Matt for response on topic of Copper Concentrate [CC] production, particularly Q3 onwards through Flotation plant.

Coming back to you on what you wrote:
"The primary extraction costs of the stacked Sulphide ore have already been expensed last year so we should see an Op Cost quite low for this aspect of production all the time we are processing the stacked ore. Don't forget that the Sulphide ore is both Copper & Gold, not just Copper."

The Main pit feed recommenced pretty much beginning of Q1 didn't it?
The Q2 production update shows a fair tonnage emerging over the H1 6 months.
Do you know how much feed into Flotation has/will come from stockpiles? I've not got a handle on this. Just content myself that the stockpiles are pretty similar sulphide grades and copper/gold/silver mix as what is/will be coming out from main pit now.
A bit complicated by the lower grade ore going to heap leach and the better to Flotation; dunno if the 'cut off' for what went into stock pile was the same.

Just as the Sulphide ore is both Copper & Gold [+ Silver], not just Copper, the ensuing CC is a blend of the 3 metals. SO in Q2 the Main-pit/stockpile ores processed through Flotation resulted in CC comprising 195 tonnes Copper, 1,226 oz gold, 16,387oz silver.
Worth noting that the SART process - which follows on from the Agit. Leach process - but not the Flotation one where stand-alone, as currently [Please correct me if I'm wrong !!] also produces CC but the metal content is very different.
The SART CC is far purer; much more metal in it than the Flotation CC.
Hence Q2 Flot. CC of 1,136 tons contained just 195 tones of Copper.
The SART CC of just 260 tones had 137 tonnes of Copper.
Then again, the Flot. CC also contained those 1,226 oz gold !! While the SART CC had merely 6oz. Testimony to the efficacy of the preceding AL process in extracting the gold for dore bars.
Interestingly there was 21,800 oz of gold in the SART CC but only 16,387 in the Flot. CC of ~5 times the weight.
Don't think the Flot. process is that efficient in silver extraction; <40% off top of head. Hope they find a way of extracting more from the tailings some time-how.
Myabe that's sommat to do with why AAZ only set targets for Gold and Copper production. As well as being the runt in value terms, the silver is trickier to predict as depends a lot on which process[es] it goes through.
Yet, it's going to contribute $1-mn upwards net cashflow, maybe even top $2-mn so significant.

But how all this translates into the costs and margin for the Flotation plant production has yet to emerge. It may remain somewhat obscure even when the Q3s are released if there is no disaggregation of the 2 parallel plant processes.
Also, as far as I'm aware, the CC is being sold on an aggregate basis, notwithstanding the very different metal contents from the 2 parallel processes. Do you know any different?
What we can be certain of is that the % of the GE production that is CC will rise for H2 v H1 and likely moreso going forward through 2019.

Though discovery of any further substantial gold/copper/silver rich ores of decent commercial grade will be good news, if the ores are oxide that will be very good.
A second Ugur, within 1 year hence, would be excellent; if a 2*Ugur wonderful!!

[wanobi] 04/8/2018 01:01

I'd rather not get into the politics as there too I know too little to comment, I've not been to the USA; but, when I see the likes of Sacha Baron Cohen's,,, 'Who Is America' which I find hilarious, the underlying perspective really worries me....

[mattjos] 04/8/2018 00:28

wanobi, with regards China, I believe he is doing the correct thing. As compared the average American business, the average Chinese business is wholly untrustworthy.
So too, several other actions eg. undoing the daft deal with Iran that Obama signed up to.

On balance, I believe he is doing more right than wrong for America .. & that is who he was elected to lead. His pressure on NATO constituents to step up to their spending obligations or consider removing the USA protection afforded them is also correct.

Americans generally have a strong sense of fair-play. Those that don't reciprocate, the average American citizen has no time for. Trump's leadership is merely mirroring those feelings amongst his electorate ... plenty in the world will moan about this, as it is a departure from recent weak usa political leadership but, the world is a hard place & there are a lot of folk need reminding of this fact. For sure he is shaking things up & irritating many but, change always meets resistance. I believe he will walk into a second-term

[wanobi] 04/8/2018 00:09

mattjos, I can't debate with you, re your comments,,, as I don't have the experience to, but I will say this,,,, Trump worries me greatly, whilst I appreciate he seems to have done exactly what he said he'd do in his presidential campaign (which is rare) he seems to shoot from the hip and could spark all sorts of global confrontations... just hope the people around him keep him under control!!

[wanobi] 03/8/2018 23:32

hi davros, what is it you want to sat about aaz?

[wanobi] 03/8/2018 23:31

robo, no, I have a few years earnings under my belt :-) why do you ask?

[mattjos] 03/8/2018 23:10

China's actions today looks likely to have drawn a line in the sand here with regards USD/CNY so, Gold should find a floor now.

Irrespective of what you may think about Trump, he is (imo) quite correct with regards USA trading with China. China is now approx. level-peggings with USA in terms of size of respective economies & therefore USA is justified to demand that they open up their market to trade with USA on equal terms ... economic peers should trade on level terms but, China absolutely does not allow this... they insist on external companies forming JV's with Chinese locals in order to access the Chinese market & this is, in effect, knowledge transfer. the current trade relationship is not equitable & no longer sustainable ... certainly not in Trump's mind.
The value of the current trade imbalance between the two nations means Trump has the necessary leverage to win this battle & so I believe China will acquiesce. Trump has them boxed in on this one right now & the Chinese are pragmatists .. likely pick another battle at another time and another place, for sure they will but, I believe this skirmish will shortly go Trump's way.

Assuming that USD now trends weaker relative to the CNY, gold should be able to breathe once again so, lets hope that particular lever now helps AAZ find a floor from here onwards and we begin to look forward to the Interims, Q3 update & maiden divi.

[basem1] 03/8/2018 19:01

Wanobi I admire your tenacity, you don't get anywhere without asking questions and doing research. I spent the first 3 or 4 years losing money in the markets, I had some serious losses and total wipeouts in stocks such as Cedar, Energis and many many more just after the tech boom in 2001. I got in just as the bubble was starting to burst. It's important to learn those lessons and it made me stronger and more determined than ever to beat the market. I'd strongly suggest you read the Naked trader book written by Robbie Burns, it's very entertaining and a great book filled with do's and dont's of investing. You'll be able to pick up a second hand edition on eBay for a couple of quid.

[davr0s] 03/8/2018 18:58

Blocked on the other thread I meant to say

[davr0s] 03/8/2018 18:57

I seem to have been blocked by Mattjos on this thread. I've been using advfn since 2004 and in those 14 years I don't believe I've ever been blocked before so the blocker has the dubious pleasure of being my first blocker - I'll let other readers make of that what they want

[robo21] 03/8/2018 18:17

Wanobi. Are you a teenager ?

[wanobi] 03/8/2018 16:55

thanx all, appreciate the comments greatly... I'll ease off on the questions and do some more reading/watching etc... please, I don't mean to irritate people with my questions and do understand it must be very boring for you guys who have been invested in aaz for years etc to experience a newcomer like me :-) cheers all.

[bo doodak] 03/8/2018 16:13

Wanobi, perhaps consider buying in tranches, not all at once. Autumn can often be a brutal time and the DOW is delicately poised.

[celeritas] 03/8/2018 16:00

wanobi, there's only so much hand holding we can do. Yes plenty here have an investment so we are bound to be positive otherwise we wouldn't be here. Many here are also seasoned investors so we do look at positives vs negatives yet we still decided to invest.
I'd say to you, stop dithering and invest or look for another stock and ask them question after question. Its not rocket science, you don't even need to make it a big investment if you are unsure, just buy in slowly.

[callmebwana] 03/8/2018 15:55

Wanobi, the first thing I would do is to read a lot of past RNS's from the Co.
Go on LSE and read them and watch the videos. Mattjos has done a good job on the header here start with that.AIMO.
DYOR and make your own decision.

[wanobi] 03/8/2018 14:55

this thread is so +ve about aaz, are there literally none here that think aaz is really undervalued? thanx

[eentweedrie] 03/8/2018 14:16

I remember when this was trading at 5p a few years ago - thought that selling out at 15p odd was a clever decision! This is def one to hold long term.

[jbravo2] 03/8/2018 12:44

I see another AIM sh1thouse has started to head down the pan.
If you got in on TERN at 2p you're laughing but clearly many didn't. Just another AIM company not making any money with ludicrous projections. Lots of people projecting a 1bn company but just the small barrier of not having any cash or revenue.
It'll be different next time. Honest.
Muppets.



I'll take this boring old mining company, not issuing shares, digging up stuff for not much money and selling it for a good sum.

[lefrene] 03/8/2018 12:28

Several sales in £10,000 slugs, which seems to be someone raising a fixed sum of money rather than trading shares?