Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[puntogt] 17/8/2017 08:47

£1,000 / oz now for gold ;)

[jeanesy] 17/8/2017 08:43

Nice move in POG overnight. Still within current range. Im not convinced about the levels some of you are talking about. Still at current price its all good news here. Volume seems to have dried up for now. I suppose some traders are still on their hols?!

[el_duderino_7885] 16/8/2017 21:16

Lovely action with gold retesting the pennant and silver bouncing off the 50dma.

However gold was capped hard end of last week to prevent it breaking $1,300 and re-testing the highs from late last year.

No doubt he dollar yen will be pumped again to try and hold gold back but it should hit $1,320 ish sooner rather than later.

[el_duderino_7885] 16/8/2017 21:13

2sporrans

Yes it is interesting to see gold priced in other currencies and it has done much better in GBP, Euro etc until recently despite being in a bear market.

However the next moves in this new bull market are going to be hundreds and eventually thousands of dollars to the upside. You simply will not get those kind of movements until it breaks out in USD. Plus the move in USD will likely signal a bull market lasting many years where as movements due to currency fluctuations tend to be much shorter in length.

The current fall in the Euro price will be short lived once gold breaks out properly in dollars.

Essentially the market needs to be driven by actual demand not by movements in paper currencies relative to each other. We need to see western investment demand return and that won't happen until the dollar price hits certain levels.

[mattjos] 16/8/2017 21:05

should now see gold make a move towards $1,400 and a 4 year high in coming weeks, as far as I am concerned.

Copper is on a tear and breaking out to new 2 year highs.

Silver also catching the wind.

Just remind me again, please! What are we sat on in the greater Gedabek complex?

The Fed is again signalling, it cannot start to unwind its balance sheet and raise rates at the same time .. not with insipid inflation like this.

If it raises rates it will kill any recovery stone dead as the now even greater debt load will cause industrial and domestic interest payments to cripple cashflows so, it seems to be saying that it has to unwind its balance sheet now'ish, in readiness to support the economy for when the real reckoning dawns .. and it is coming down the tracks, have no doubt about that.

It will be very hard to reign in copper prices if, globally, electrification of mass & private transportation is mandated to switch away form petrol & diesel.
Tesla may still have a lot to prove but its momentum & disruptive influence is galvanising car OEM's to accelerate electrification & that is also going to stir up huge infrastructure demand for cabling.
Copper demand is going to leave miners struggling to catch up, imo & the broader markets know this now.

It is a near-perfect confluence of assorted levers on our business model & our production is going to breakout into new highs next year.

Still quietly adding more here this week while we flat-line but, I would be very surprised if we do not resume the up-trend very shortly now.

[brasso3] 16/8/2017 20:46

Matt

Gold up so that usually means AAZ will be down...

[mattjos] 16/8/2017 20:45

Interesting day I think here tomorrow :-)

[jbravo2] 16/8/2017 08:52

:D
I don't think they'll be found wanting for funds.
I wonder if they're waiting to get producing?

[jbe81] 16/8/2017 08:50

Not quite enough to buy Aaz then..

[jbravo2] 16/8/2017 08:38

Not sure jbe.
I know Aimroc had hundreds of kilos of dore they couldn't sell.
It's been a few weeks since they sold any so perhaps that's it.
In which case it was c.32koz Au and c.46koz Ag. Coming up for a years production.
c.$40m

[mattjos] 16/8/2017 08:33

jeanesy .. the buyer was making a tentative probe for 2,500 shares at the 26p level. he was rewarded with that quantity at 25.5p so, still a bit to clear here just yet before we tackle 26p

[jbe81] 16/8/2017 08:24

How much gold did azergold have stockpiled?

[jeanesy] 16/8/2017 08:10

Because of Azergold we have no way of knowing monthly production figures any more, which in some ways is a good thing. We will have to wait until the end of the next quarter to see how production is going. What was so intersting about the pre-market auction please Mattjos ?

[jbravo2] 16/8/2017 08:08

Can you find the figure for Jan-Jun? Is it on here matt?



AzerGold aren't producing yet. They've sold two bulk loads of dore (produced by Aimroc) so depending on when the last one hit the govt records, it might still be possible to work out our dore production. It is less valuable as a figure as we are currently using flotation first

[ferries5] 16/8/2017 08:01

Azergold seems to be doing well.

[mattjos] 16/8/2017 07:58

Interesting pre-market auction

[mattjos] 16/8/2017 07:24

Gold now retraced to the prior congestion zone of 1260-1270 ... will be a very positive sign if that now proves new support level

[jbravo2] 15/8/2017 18:52

The MM's are increasingly stuck for supply for the after hours buyer who still appears on most days but with pitiful volume the last few days.
It remains to be seen how long they'll be happy with this limited supply and whether they'll change tack.
It's apparent that the sells during the day are being taken as and when they happen in market leaving little room.
Something has to give!
Can they tempt the seller back with a rise of a couple pennies?

[mattjos] 15/8/2017 17:53

interesting post 2porrans.

You can of course also look at Gold in GBP and that tells a different story to gold in EUR.

It is still denominated in US$ though & Trump has stated he wants the US$ lower.
If they intend a manufacturing renaissance in the USA, he needs the dollar lower to persuade USA corporates to manufacture in the USA and not in Mexico, Vietnam, China etc.

A lower dollar will also help encourage USA corporates with big cash positions overseas to bring it back to the USA & put it to work.

Currency strengths and weaknesses are always relative and do revert at some point but, what I've learnt is that once a trend sets in on a currency, it does tend to last for much, much longer than you might imagine.

eg. GBPEUR down trend started middle to back end 2015 & looks like it is heading to parity or even much lower.
GBPUSD could even be heading for parity also at this rate but, it takes so much longer than you think on currencies.

What is more relevant to AAZ holders, I believe, is that GBP is not really a currency to be holding right now .. the BREXIT negotiations and implementation are likely to keep it under pressure for the next 2-3 years.
Our shares may be priced in GBP but, the functional currency of AAZ & what it produces are in US$.
GBP has been weakening against the USD since the summer of 2014.

Our US$ revenues & earnings are translating back into an ever growing number of £'s here & that, for UK investors in the stock, is yet another reason adding to the list of reasons why the £ share price should rise.
Quite apart from the stupidly cheap valuation afforded the equity in the company right now & therefore good reason to hold and wait for that situation to reverse, by virtue of remaining invested, it is helping offset the steady decline of your £

[zhockey] 15/8/2017 17:15

They should publish a five year plan.

[2sporrans] 15/8/2017 15:52

"....valuable to explore and discuss differences of opinion".

Agreed Zhockey.

On the topic of the POG, although there's no 'party line' on this bb, there is a preponderance of Bulls.

My take, fwliw, is that much of the recent rise in the POG is down to $ weakness and at best the POG has been heading sideways the past 6 months, if that weakness is stripped out.
Measuring the $ against a 'basket' of other currencies, the $ index has fallen about 9% during 2017; ~7% since April, a 'local' high point for Gold:

hxxps://uk.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

So, take the strongest major currency over 2017, the Euro, we have the situation where the POG priced in Euros made lows for 2017 the past week:

hxxp://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

[Check out against various time-frames and other currencies; quite revealing.]

Today we are seeing a reverse rally for the $; hence the drop in the $POG.

The above gives me an opportunity to be cheeky and to suggest to devotees of charts that they might wish to conduct one of their TA upon the Euro-POG, with particular reference to the multi-year low [pretty universal, in whatever mainstream currency] for gold during December 2015 as a starting point.
Looks like a decidedly bearish tone has been set since April 2017.

OK, accepted it's the $ that Gold is actually sold for and its the primary denominator.
Still, can one say, objectively, that a TA conducted upon the Euro-POG has no merit; that it lacks predictive content?

So, that's 2 rebellious contentions from me for today.

I'm mulling over entering into the future loans for flotation plant [sulphides/copper] debate but content to read what JBravo, Zhockey and others are posting for now, as better informed than I.
Just one thing though:
Won't AAZ wish to err towards the [Catsick line] 3 year rapid exhaustion of Ugur's oxide ores, get the debt mostly paid off, big up copper resource explo., have the sulphide ores teed up [at least JORC, + even more stockpiled], THEN negotiate a lower interest rate loan?
Could be a year or 18 months away?

[mattjos] 15/8/2017 15:36

Off subject for one post:
I did mention MATD here the other day & holding a speccy position. After today's news, I think they are now set clear to the drill in September & the prize is so big that I think it's worth a small few for the ride.
fwiw, I have £1.75 as my target on them. GL if anyone decides to 'have a flutter'
Sadly the thread there is full of the idiot brigade but, that is what the herd can & will do to a stock when it gets upward momentum ... there'll all be here soon enough.

[jbravo2] 15/8/2017 14:29

If they can't find more oxide then yes I fully agree they will need a flotation expansion.
Indeed they may opt for this even with further oxide, as has been discussed previously, depending on amounts and relative mix.

Flotation expansion won't come to 50m though. I think under 20m is more realistic for what will be needed and what already exists. (I have been told previously 15m but that is prob a bit out of date now, you know the existing plant only cost $4.7m?)
I don't think this will be decided until more exploration is done and more debt paid off.
This week we move to only 4 payments left on the AGL plant loan. In one years time we finish paying it and have an extra 10m a year we will no longer be paying out (and associated interest saving)
Flotation expansion would be paid out of this when/if it is needed.

We have the time to decide. We have seen how quickly this company can move.


The debt reduction this first half has been impressive with the numbers produced.
What do you reckon debt is going to be year end, after the good half of the year?

[zhockey] 15/8/2017 14:18

OK so JB, you must have at least considered a case where they can't find any more oxide deposits. What does this look like 3 years out, in your view?