Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbe81] 24/4/2017 09:43

Hmmm,I wonder what Matt has to say about your bullish posts followed by selling out..

[zhockey] 24/4/2017 09:32

2S

I'm not sceptical of The company's plan, but I have a hunch the market is going to price in AAZ going bust. I didn't want to be on the wrong side of that, again!

Can't see there being a resource upgrade this year as I don't believe they've had enough time to drill. Also will they have to write down the Gedebek recoverable gold reserves?

[jbe81] 24/4/2017 08:52

Am convinced we will get a resource upgrade before the presentation. Even Jeansey might be tempted to buy back if it gets much lower.

[edjge2] 24/4/2017 08:15

AAZ has sold 10m gold but cannot get the link from newsnow to open from the link in

[2sporrans] 23/4/2017 23:43

Sold out 100% Zhockey.
You must be hugely sceptical yourself, being such a long term investor.

How many did you sell ?
Just wondering what % of "The market" you represented.

With the POG rally being deflated right now by the nigh certain prospect of President Macron, your decision looks that bit more prescient.

I added a few at 17.3p despite the risk of a falling knife sell off next week.
There's gold in them there hills!

Can see this becoming as much a copper play over next 2 years though.

[zhockey] 23/4/2017 22:46

After holding for 10 years I sold out at 18.5p on Thursday. I had a hunch that the market would turn sceptical on the new plans and that the share price would breakdown.

All the best.

[bleepy] 23/4/2017 16:21

Looking at the gallery pics for Bittibulag there is one that looks like an underground audit.
Update for this prospect must surely be in the pipeline. From memory Bittibulag is copper rich so the change of plant and process would suit this prospect


Mattjos with the reconfiguration of plant and process I'm sure they would make good use of any redundant plant.

[mattjos] 23/4/2017 01:46

re-read the news item a few times now and digested it more thoroughly.

I assume by start of 2018 they will be running the Oxide ore from Ugur through the Agitation Leaching plant (we've been told that Ugur ore has no copper content).

Gedabek will restart feeding its Sulphide ore first through Flotation and then the tailings flow may be blended into Agitation and/or feed the SART plant

Heap will be fed as currently with ROM Ore and low gold content ore.

The first quarter of production from Gedabek in 2013, they produced:

8,585 oz Gold
9,875 oz Silver
93 t Copper

In its first full year of production, Gedabek produced:

52,068 oz Gold
44,926 oz Silver
339 t Copper

FY18 we should be very much back on track and should produce nearer 80koz of Gold, 160koz+ of Silver & 2,000t Copper.

With that to shoot at, it looks sensible to make this switch now.

They've got plenty of Sulphide Ore stacked at Gedabek to see them through the interim period. In fact they'll only use about 50% of the stacked ore this year so, plenty in reserve in the event of delays.
The switch to flotation first & then agitation has increased the recovery rates to 84% (so far) from previously reported 72% so, that appears to justify the decision.

I'm assuming they will end 2017 with debt at $30m but, that figure should then reduce fast and be down to under $20m by end 2018 & virtually debt-free by end 2019.

There are still significant quantities of metals held within the tailings dam & it will be interesting to hear at what rate the plant is able to work at & what sort of metals extraction they get from it.
I wonder if the small (still unused) flotation plant might be used to re-process the solids in the tailings dam in the future.

[mattjos] 22/4/2017 23:47

Header updated with updated production data ... thanks Brasso

[celeritas] 21/4/2017 23:26

Ugur will surprise, plant is being moved to really go at it.

[el_duderino_7885] 21/4/2017 21:09

I'll have to run some technicals over the weekend but from a purely technical perspective the chart looks horrible.

Broken out of that descending triangle to the downside.

I agree there is risk but if it goes much lower it'll definitely be worth a punt.

I like the strategy but at the moment we have a mining company without a proven economic resource so lots of work to do.

Could be an incredible opportunity though especially with a rising price of gold.

Anyone have a handle on how long their stockpiles will last? If things don't go to plan and open pit mining doesn't recommence in Q4 when will they run out?

[jeanesy] 21/4/2017 20:03

If you think this will double this year then you must be buying more even if very few others are at the moment! There is far too much uncertainty here for me and until the company puts out some positive news it seems like it will drift lower. It may well turn out to be cracking buy but only if the POG holds up, we get some positive news on resources and drill some decent grades of ore.
There were some very strange sells this afternoon. There were 9 lots of sales which went through at 5206 pounds in value ( different amounts of shares some of them ) , never seen that before !

[brasso3] 21/4/2017 18:51

I agree it could double or even triple from here to year end so it is a good 8 month investment. I guess I would argue that it does not look like a good 3 month investment at present.

[jbe81] 21/4/2017 18:17

Understood, they should have sold a month ago!

AAZ is a cracking buy now, will be up well over 100 per cent from todays share price before the years end, so as I said I cant understand why people would sell now, even though you have pointed it out to me ;)

[brasso3] 21/4/2017 17:44

jbe

I know that there are positives also and that my post was a bit negative. I just wanted to highlight why I think people are selling. AAZ have had 5 months of below par production now hence the drop from 30p to 17p. The AIM market is very short sighted and most people will not want to see this out until the end of the year with a company carrying $30m+ debt.

[jbe81] 21/4/2017 17:43

What do you think the cost of production will be for 2017, producing from ore that has already been mined( and that cost already accounted for)?

[jbe81] 21/4/2017 17:36

Brasso it won't see a halt in production, they are still producing from stock piled ore. A halt in mining is completely different.

Ugur and Bittibulag don't feature in our reserves, you can take the view that there is no gold there and our board have wasted $200million on the plant and sell OR you can take the view that a resource upgrade is coming and buy.

[brasso3] 21/4/2017 17:18

jbe

Is it really a surprise people are selling?

- AAZ just recorded its worst quarter in 3 years.
- The next quarter will see a halt in production (albeit for the greater good).
- AAZs production was the factor that allowed people to ignore the low reserves.
- We still have $30m+ debt at present.
- Next news could be 3 months away (Q2 production).

It doesn't matter what the gold price is if you have low reserves and declining production.

[jbe81] 21/4/2017 17:12

Crazycoops, I guess we will find out.

I posted sometime the logically think would be for Azergold to buy AAZ, purchase 30 percent cheaply in the market then they only need to persuade the board and a couple of PIs to accept an offer to get the rest.

The alternative would be for AAZ to run some of or all of Azergolds assets. Looks like we will find out soon from the result of the tender.

Why anybody would sell at this price with gold doing well is beyond me.

[friendzarin] 21/4/2017 14:49

2sporrans I agree with your view here.

This is what Reza said after the drilling results were published in December.

Anglo Asian CEO, Reza Vaziri, said "These encouraging results from the newly discovered Ugur deposit enhance our understanding of the deposit and show that the oxide zone extends deeper than initially determined by previous drilling. Ugur is only three kilometres from our processing facilities at our main Gedabek site, highlighting the clear strategic value of developing this deposit. Work will continue to expand the potential resource of this new discovery. I look forward to updating shareholders on our progress as we work towards further enhancing our already profitable operation at Gedabek through the mining of multiple zones of mineralisation.

This reads very positively and it would have been so easy to develop a logical narrative with more positivity concerning the Gedabek/Ugur process which I'm afraid has come across as more of a retrenchment against a backdrop of the recent trend of failing to meet targets and ceasing production at Gedabek without an announcement of rationale at that time. I think the presentational effect of this on shareholders seems to have passed them by. So when I posted after the November proactive that one concern I had was the quality of the Executive team this is really what I was getting to.I really think they need to sharpen their game up in this area.

[crazycoops] 21/4/2017 14:23

I think you're right jbe - have you worked out what the story is and how it ends?

[catsick] 21/4/2017 14:21

Back to 5p , why not !

[jbe81] 21/4/2017 13:07

Its the delayed trades that tell the story here, not the PI selling and the MM games

[2sporrans] 21/4/2017 13:02

"At the headline level, the company could & should have made the rationale for the decision to switch from Gedabek to Ugur eg. Ugur has nn quantity available of Oxide ore."
Agreed Mattjos.

Further, there could have been a preliminary announcement far[months]earlier to assuage investor fears over the declining gold grades; to say options were being evaluated for a switch to Ugur along with production feed from stockpiles + switch to flotation [copper] led production.
Instead, there was a period of ~3months where investors concerns were left to fester, followed by a surprise change of tack, lacking in convincing evidence that Ugur will deliver or supersede the "conservative" [but reduced] new gold-equivalent production targets.

Investors shy away from combinations of uncertainty and surprises.

Still, a buying opportunity has been teed up.