Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[ferries5] 19/4/2017 11:04

That's the problem, Now they have closed down the open pit and Gadir, Will they reopen, It depends on the results of drilling, (the word (anticipated commencment of production creates doubt)
I knew the grades were getting lower and they would have to do a comprehensive drill programme, but it happening so soon after telling us they could produce 70000 oz for the next 4 years (15 month ago)
Just not sure if the glass is half full or half empty

[zhockey] 19/4/2017 10:50

They can produce 55k without mining anything this year, the costs will be very low and they can utilise the workforce and machinery to get Ugur up and running. Then back to two pit operations next year.

I suspect they will find at least one more Gadir type deposit under the Gedebek pit.

[zhockey] 19/4/2017 10:33

CSM, I answered that yesterday. To run both pits they would need to spend $10M on new kit and hire more staff. In addition by halting mining activities they are able to drill 15000m arround the pit and look for new Gadir type deposits.

[csmwssk12hu] 19/4/2017 09:15

If it was profitable they would run both at same time it's obviously no longer profitable

[mattjos] 19/4/2017 08:29

Eyes on France now as we approach first round vote.That is next driver for gold direction, short term

[mattjos] 18/4/2017 22:34

From today's RNS:

"Given the increasing proportion of copper in the production at Gedabek, the Company will from now on present its total production target in gold equivalent ounces ("GEOs"). The comparative GEOs for FY 2016 production have been calculated using actual selling prices of metal. The FY 2017 production target in GEOs has been calculated using budget selling prices of $1,200 per ounce, $17 per ounce and $5,900 per tonne for gold, silver and copper respectively.

v

"Credit Suisse Sees $1,400 Gold By End Of 2017"


Credit Suisse said it maintains a bullish gold price outlook, looking for $1,400 gold in the fourth quarter, although the full-year outlook was trimmed to $1,323 from $1,338 previously to reflect prices in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, Credit Suisse hiked its 2017 silver-price forecast to $18.46 an ounce from $18.Analysts see $19 silver in the fourth quarter.

So, CS sees Gold averaging 10% higher & Silver averaging 8.5% higher than AAZ forecast today.

Let us also hope that prior shareholder feedback to the BOD has, in part, lead to today's use of the adjective "Conservative" in the management forecast for the FY.

Exceeding that production target coupled with metal prices above mgmnt assumptions should see the company enter 2018 in a very strong position. Between now and then I do expect the company to give us more detailed updates on the Ugur resource & why they have been persuaded to take the steps outlined today.

[brasso3] 18/4/2017 19:43

Updated production chart.

Copper to gold ratio changing drastically now over a 2 year period.

[jbravo2] 18/4/2017 17:56

Depends on how you mean "planned this for some time".
We've long known there has been a stockpile of sulphide high copper ore.
We've long known the plant can be run the other way round (flotation first) to remove copper first and prevent prohibitive costs for leaching high copper ore.

I don't think this would be happening now if Gadir was still pulling tens of thousands of tons at 6g and the open mine was still throwing up 3g.
It wasn't though and the gradual drop has been long anticipated.
The stockpile has been increased for this eventuality but I'm not sure the company was clear on exactly when it would happen as by their own admission the ore geology has meant they have often only known what they were going to get in detail as they dug it up.

Is it any cause for worry? Not really.
The area, as cannon has said, is huge. We have the plants to treat pretty much anything found now.
There's at least 10 years left in Gedabek, in its variety of sub mines, and differing ores. IMO.

[mattjos] 18/4/2017 17:39

the huge quantity of stockpiled ore, enabling them to keep producing for the next 6 months without mining, is surely symptomatic of the company having planned this for some time.
you don't just take the mining cost on the chin & then put aside 1m tonnes of ore for the sake of it.

[zhockey] 18/4/2017 16:49

Cyber, just take a look at Venezuela, it doesn't work as an economic model and Azerbaijan want to encourage outside investment not snuff it out.

[cyberbub] 18/4/2017 16:28

Or if they just ignore the AIM regulations, because they know that the FSA rarely takes action against UK law breakers, much less foreigners...I don't understand the point about naionalisation/privatisation above. If a government is desperate for money why wouldn't it nationalise a mine which is throwing off millions in cash flow every year? Free money! Even if they had to pay a measly 25p a share in compensation, they would get that back in the first couple of years of operation. And the current board would get well paid positions in the new state-owned mine, plus a percentage of the revenue in some non-transparent manner...Sorry to sound cynical, and perhaps the AAZ management are above such underhand dealings, but an awful lot of AIM companies aren't....Just challenging here, I am genuinely not trying to deramp, it's just a concern I have in this particular country. Good relations with the government is certainly positive, but when it goes from 'good' to 'cosy' is when you might have a problem.No advice intended etc etc

[zhockey] 18/4/2017 15:48

Not if they are spread across a number of distributed accounts.

[jeanesy] 18/4/2017 15:36

If someone where buying a stake we would have heard by now as an RNS on holdings would have been published

[catsick] 18/4/2017 15:09

We are talking about a 20 mio pound market cap company here, totally irrelevant to the government apart from its a solid provider of decent jobs, the shares may be being accumulated by an individual or small fund but there is nothing surreptitious going on, its just too small a company, The oil industry is 100's of times bigger in Azerbaijan than a few small mines scratching to find some decent ore ...

[jbravo2] 18/4/2017 14:26

Ah yes thanks cannon. I'd always been looking for an expanse water but of course it was under construction back then.



You're right in some respects ferries.
They are indeed offering up a variety of companies for sale in Azerbaijan. That includes mines. They were trying to sell an iron ore mine for the third time of asking only last month.

The mines taken under AzrGold are of course a notable exception. They were privately held (by a "complicated web of companies") but bought by a "government entity" in AzrGold.
Now everyone knows why this happened but the interesting question is just how much of AzrGold is govt owned?
Its a CJSC so we're not likely to find out anytime soon. Indeed all official announcements have said all 2m shares are govt controlled but who would be surprised if they weren't?

Things we know:
It's quite expensive to build treatment plants (as AAZ have found out).
Chovdar has sulphide ore and they're trying to work out the best way of treating it.
Chovdar, Gedabek and Qaradag (an early stage AG property) are all within trucking distance of each other
AAZ has a good relationship with the govt of Azerbaijan

Things we might presume:
Reza would sell at some price.
If someone wanted to buy but thought that Reza's price was too much to pay they could buy some of the company beforehand at a price far below that level, reducing overall cost or of course making a few bucks for themselves.
The financial market involved is largely powerless to stop something like that happening. They couldn't even ensure correct RNS's as bash sold down his 20%


cyber:
Having medium to heavy weight political allies and shareholders in the Snunu family means that is a course of action that is unlikely, never mind the fact that Reza also gets on well with the powers that be. Granted, unlikely, not impossible

[mattjos] 18/4/2017 14:10

still evidence of a reasonable buyer in the auctions at 20p

[zhockey] 18/4/2017 14:07

Governments hungry for money do not nationalise, they privatise!

[cyberbub] 18/4/2017 14:06

So you're thinking that the Az Govt is buying a big stake on the sly, so that they can then cash in if the company is sold at a higher price? And they aren't declaring their holdings because they are based outside the UK and know the FSA cannot reach them?If a public body is willing to engage in that sort of behaviour, surely they will suddenly declare their hand when they have 29% and launch a takeover at say 25p or 30p, not £1?? Get a cash cow on the cheap.

[jbe81] 18/4/2017 13:58

Cannfodd3r, May 10th is when we may find out whats will happen with Chovdar

[ferries5] 18/4/2017 13:52

cyberbub

The opposite is happening, desperate for money they may be, but there are over 500 Government companies up for privation in Azerbaijan. Not saying AAZ will be one though.

[cannonfodd3r] 18/4/2017 13:51

Cyber, that would be my thoughts, but they will have to make an open market offer if they were to buy it. I may be totally wrong but if aaz were to run Chovdar I'd have expected to hear something by now

[cyberbub] 18/4/2017 13:32

I have held AAZ stock on and off, but one thing that has always made me nervous is the 'eminence grise' of an authoritarian government desperate for money, and what it might do eg. nationalisation without compensation.

[cyberbub] 18/4/2017 13:30

Cannon fodder, when you say "it's pretty clear who is buying a stake", can you clarify? You mean a government- linked entity?

[cannonfodd3r] 18/4/2017 13:08

Look directly east from the mine and you will see a big scar running north south, thats the tailings dam. I believe Ugur is about the same distance away from the leach pads as the current open pit is, but to the NW, however dont hold me to that. Looks like the google satellite images are from 2012 too so wont have the new plant etc on.

Also if you rotate and look in 3D you can see the pit and the overburden i keep speaking of. I reckon they are at a point where there is just too much overburden to remove (look at difference in rock colour) to enable them to get enough out so need to take a step back and pause for breathy which they are doing. Photos seem to show it has a pretty steep face so there is probably 20-30 loads of overburden to 1 load of ore now, so its not like its not there its just that its not that easy to get to.

As gedir has been said to be on the estate and doesnt yield much you can bet Stepehen Westhead is thinking mine under it. They have the kit there paid for and its not doing much in the Gedir mine it seems. This is exactly what the Siemens brothers did if you look into the history of the mine. It could even be that the stockpiled ore is on top of easier to get to ore, however i think its great they recognise the issue, find alternative resources to go on with, think about best solution to get the ore from the pit and then hit the main areas so grades will increase while carrying on looking for more reserves. Look at the map and you will see how much potential the area holds