Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 11:23

2SP,

That is not altogether surprising considering the weather. They may have mined very little open pit ore and processed sulphide stockpiles. Remember that would show an increase in flotation production which is not included in the media reports. Could be another 1000oz to add.

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 10:55

Well said Zhockey. I do remain bullish despite exiting as my charts are saying a short term trade on the GDXJ will be more profitable but risk missing out here.

I'll be back in sooner rather than later. The potential here remains enormous. Let's hope for an RNS soon.

[2sporrans] 17/3/2017 10:49

Good post Cannonfodder, though I think zhockey may well have nailed it.

I've just made a quick calc. , based on Q4 production which leads me to conclude that
on the basis of 5.5k-oz/month processed gold, ~1782k-oz would, pro-rata come out of the underground mines - Gadir [q4 seems to be 0 for Gosha]; i.e. 45% of production from agitation leaching.
Assuming this to be unaffected by the weather.
That leaves ~700k-oz output sourced from elsewhere for Feb. 2,500k-oz.
Lets assume heap leaching [only 28% of production in Q4 anyway] to be frozen out to 0; leaves 700k-oz put though the agitation plant/SaRt/flotation, sourced from the open cast mining with grade >1.5g/t.

I guess that it is plausible the higher grade ore from open pit may have stalled for reasons Cannonfodder offers but 700 actual v 3720 'target' to meet a 5,500k-oz monthly total is a virtual stoppage.

Conerning?

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 10:18

I said 18months back that production would be 50k by 2018, looks like it will arrive in 2017. That much was obvious and Bill was alluding to this in his interviews. Hence I am not surprised or disappointed. Ugur will I believe give a bump up in the next few years due to the easy access oxide ore.

But the story here is a $200m plant almost paid for, a load of copper and enough gold to fund exploration in a province with untold potential.

I fear a few bulls have lost faith at the worst possible time.

[terropol] 17/3/2017 10:03

Guys just remember February was very cold...well sub zero. Severe conditions...
Last winter was very mild.
Difficult to mine with temperatures below 10c
March is much better and would expect at list 6000oz.
Keeping my position and may get a few more on this panic selling.

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 09:57

Spot on cannon.
Exactly a year ago there was much more risk. We were at 4p with much more debt and a small risk of not making it.
In reality we are far removed from that now and 4 times the share price accordingly.
By this time next year there will only be 2 loan payments left.
Where do people think the share price will be then?

Now of course if we only produce 3koz a month all year it will be reasonable to say "lower than 18p", but I don't think that's going to happen.
I await April and hope I get the same opportunity for a bargain as I did last year for my ISA

[cannonfodd3r] 17/3/2017 09:49

Id be slightly more concerned if there wasn't such big trades going through. Some of the trades are huge which only says one thing, Ugur clearly has something to deliver and there is clearly a short term issue in the figures. It could be something as daft as having lots of overburden to remove to get to the ore, after all its a big hill (all be it called copper mountain) and they may have just got to a point where they cant undermine any more so need to top strip. They may have been doing this over the winter when production is rubbish in any case to free up the summer to hit it hard.

The chances of them just running out of gold is slim to not a chance as there is a continual drilling programme as has been discussed previously so they know what they have in the pit/hill.

Also don't forget that this doesn't include what is in the concentrate. Numbers were always higher in the past as the sole processing was through heap leaching, this is simply a side line now and i believe the ore is just run of mine and un crushed on the heap leach pads so any chance of getting any gold from the HL process over the winter is even further reduced.

So in short, either panic and sell or look past the current issue and focus on the possibilities ahead like the big buyers are currently doing

[brasso3] 17/3/2017 09:41

Such a drop in production warrants an RNS IMO. Typical of AAZ to let this linger and then get hit twice by the news post Q1 results!

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 09:32

The dive in sentiment? No
The production, as others have stated, is poor. Worse than it's been for as long as I can remember. That's a bit worrying, and if you wish, has dented my faith a little but we've seen troughs before. Hopefully it will pick up again.

It is reassuring that we clearly met the payment due at the end of Feb even with this production although it will be interesting to see if we had to borrow anything to do it.

The recent press stories covering AAZ production and talking about Chovdar are interesting.
Clearly AzerGold aren't profitable at the moment. They have a large cost base for 40koz.
They could remove further costs if they wanted to buy us.
A couple of items have also mentioned their future sites and third on their list is the site next to Ordubad.
Does Chovdar have any high grade ore? If so where are they going to process that?

Still lots of questions.
Clearly I'd be more confident if we produced 4kozin both Jan and Feb.
We haven't. That isn't enough in of itself to make me sell .

Sorry for any typos.on phone hard to check post

[csmwssk12hu] 17/3/2017 09:27

Wow 32% down, that's a disaster for any business, any possibility that they have drained the gold almost? As they say nothing last forever gla

[zhockey] 17/3/2017 09:14

Jbravo, has this recent dive in sentiment dented your faith at all?

[jbe81] 17/3/2017 09:08

Wow, gone in one go

[jbravo2] 17/3/2017 09:06

Looks like someone saved half a penny on each share.
Significant selling the last three days has largely been covered by some significant buying

[jbe81] 17/3/2017 08:51

stil 523k at 19.75 wanted, so will hold up share price for a bit , couldn't buy 20k this am.

[el_duderino_7885] 17/3/2017 08:43

I'm out as of first thing this morning having already reduced my holding a few weeks back.

Let's see what's behind the massive drop in production. I had previously been under the impression there was at least 4 or 5 years of stable production left around 60k.

Could just be a temporary fall in production. Personally I await the company's production guidance for the year before considering buying back in.

[2sporrans] 17/3/2017 08:34

Dire production figure and trend.
Seriously concerned about the grades now.
Expect the share price will fall a few p further now.
Not panicking; not enough evidence for that.
Management need to offer an explanation though as this is not in line with their forecasts.

[brasso3] 17/3/2017 08:12

I thought February would be bad but 2500oz is terrible. Even with flotation gold it would be sub 3000oz.

[ferries5] 17/3/2017 08:10

looks like they are in:

I believe that I am reading this correctly when I say that they produced 76.1kg gold. This amounts to 2447 oz during February, making a total of 5826 oz total this quarter so far. This is a massive 32% down on the same period (Jan/Feb) of last year so we can't blame the winter. To put it into further context, they produced 131.4kg last February, so February's figure is down 42% yoy. At this rate they are going to struggle to make 10k oz for the quarter although it has to be said that March is by far the strongest production month for the first quarter. If it drops 30% on last year they will produce almost exactly 10k oz.

We need to understand what is causing such a severe drop (beyond just the weather)?


Copy from the lse board

[jeanesy] 17/3/2017 08:04

It is from the lse board. Not sure on the grades, but know there continues to be an issue. I would email the company

[ranike] 17/3/2017 07:59

I think the info is comming from the l.s.e. bb site.

[brasso3] 17/3/2017 07:34

Jeanesy

Please post the link?

[ferries5] 17/3/2017 06:46

Well if those figures are correct. The company has made a loss this month , which is not really important in the scheme of things. But the rate of decline is the worrying factor. 15 month ago, Bill Morgan said that we could produce approximately 70,000 ounces per year for four years. A few months ago, ABC az reported that production was set to fall off a cliff, with the company issuing a denial.
I do not think it will, but the company should let shareholders know what is happening here and how they see the future developing

[wimbled] 16/3/2017 23:44

Is there a link to confirm feb's figures.
Not good if only 2447 oz. The trend continues down!